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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 5, 2018 8:14:29 GMT -6
Today marks the beginning of a record snow event in St. Louis... the record 24 hour snowfall for November began today...November 5, 1951!  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 5, 2018 8:39:16 GMT -6
a little late with the posting here. We took our trip down to Giant City Saturday. Colors were great going down there. Coming back it was probably the best color display I have ever seen. We had a great angle on the Bluffs coming back. It was spectacular. This was on Route 3 coming back from Murphysboro
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 5, 2018 9:11:42 GMT -6
Joe bastardi was calling for a blizzard in the plains late this week. Ask him. Lol
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Nov 5, 2018 9:58:28 GMT -6
Today marks the beginning of a record snow event in St. Louis... the record 24 hour snowfall for November began today...November 5, 1951! The scary thing is that is more snow than St. Louis got in total for the season starting in January 1952. 1952 only saw 10.1 inches!  |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 5, 2018 10:23:38 GMT -6
Well hey GFS, working on bringing something back.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2018 10:24:58 GMT -6
Well hey GFS, working on bringing something back. As is the Canadian. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 5, 2018 10:28:13 GMT -6
Looks like I’ll be in town this year to witness what will hopefully be our first flakes flying. I usually miss these type deals due to my traveling job.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 5, 2018 10:56:23 GMT -6
Looks like some potential for some wind-driven snow squalls Friday as the upper level trough amplifies. And a cold start Saturday.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 5, 2018 10:57:10 GMT -6
Looks like some pretty heavy rain coming at us from the SW it’s so soggy already don’t need more moisture right now other then to help fill ponds that got way low this year.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 5, 2018 11:11:13 GMT -6
Looks like some pretty heavy rain coming at us from the SW it’s so soggy already don’t need more moisture right now other then to help fill ponds that got way low this year. It's a good rain shield... but a little overcooked on the radar because the beam is shooting through the melting layer. You can see it looks pretty noisy in CC product down there...a sign of lower coorelations and "oddly shaped" hydrometers (wet snow and stuff) between 5k and 10k feet or so.  |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 5, 2018 11:20:06 GMT -6
I think all the local mets need to get back to drawing all of the maps by hand. It snowed more when they did that...at least down in my neck of the woods.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 5, 2018 11:23:44 GMT -6
Looks like some pretty heavy rain coming at us from the SW it’s so soggy already don’t need more moisture right now other then to help fill ponds that got way low this year. It's a good rain shield... but a little overcooked on the radar because the beam is shooting through the melting layer. You can see it looks pretty noisy in CC product down there...a sign of lower coorelations and "oddly shaped" hydrometers (wet snow and stuff) between 5k and 10k feet or so. Tis the season for overcooked radars And models too |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 5, 2018 11:29:12 GMT -6
Had a few pings of small hail when it came through here.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 5, 2018 11:46:22 GMT -6
I'm working at WEINHARDT party rentals as a driver helper.
We were about to do a 2 hour outdoor wedding pickup near 64/ladue road.
Not looking forward to the rain today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 5, 2018 12:15:32 GMT -6
Welcome back Friv! Stay warm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 5, 2018 13:00:08 GMT -6
12z EURO would still support some slushy accumulations later this week across parts of the region. And it brings some very cold air down into next week.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 5, 2018 13:07:20 GMT -6
Map from the MTW friend David Koeller showing what Chris mentioned last week about the build up of cold air up north  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 5, 2018 13:20:13 GMT -6
It is worth pointing out that it is a whole lot colder up there than the cilimate models were forecasting.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 5, 2018 13:23:55 GMT -6
It is worth pointing out that it is a whole lot colder up there than the cilimate models were forecasting. Not surprising being this early with climo bias... |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 5, 2018 13:26:15 GMT -6
12z EURO would still support some slushy accumulations later this week across parts of the region. And it brings some very cold air down into next week.
...with a classic winter looking clipper leading the charge. Pattern looks more like January than November there.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2018 14:32:50 GMT -6
The question to ask at this point is...are we seeing the pattern dig in and set up for the winter, or is this "premature winter elation" as it was phrased last year. Just eyballing the amount of cold that has built up there and the stubborness of the NW flow, I think we will be locked in for the most part. Of course the western ridge will push in at times, but it seems to be here to stay. Just my two cents.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2018 14:46:41 GMT -6
Something I've noticed the last few model runs pertaining to the late week system...there has been a trend to develop a slight amplification of the flow out ahead of the wave. This could be the start of something, or could not be. However, given the trends this year, you have to at least think about the possibility of a weaker lead wave followed by some secondary development along with the push of cold air. Just something to keep an eye on.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 5, 2018 15:14:57 GMT -6
I'm hearing a few pings of sleet on the windows mixed in with the rain. That may account for a little of what appeared to be overcooked radar
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 5, 2018 15:17:14 GMT -6
It is worth pointing out that it is a whole lot colder up there than the cilimate models were forecasting. What could that mean for us? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 5, 2018 15:48:28 GMT -6
It is worth pointing out that it is a whole lot colder up there than the cilimate models were forecasting. What could that mean for us? Hopefully that cold = snow |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 5, 2018 16:41:14 GMT -6
Something I've noticed the last few model runs pertaining to the late week system...there has been a trend to develop a slight amplification of the flow out ahead of the wave. This could be the start of something, or could not be. However, given the trends this year, you have to at least think about the possibility of a weaker lead wave followed by some secondary development along with the push of cold air. Just something to keep an eye on. I've noticed there seems to be a trend of more phasing/interaction between the waves and more amplification of the digging wave in the N branch. That's not necessarily a good trend because that would likely result in a warmer and further N track. But it could also keep the precipitation going for longer back in the cold air too. I think a nuisance/mood snow event is pretty likely at this point...but accumulating snow will be tough to come by. Surface temps will be fairly high and the near-surface airmass is forecast to be borderline. We need to watch that clipper zipping through just behind it too...that could have some light snow or mix with it. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 5, 2018 16:54:36 GMT -6
If the NAM is close... I think we may be see some slushy grass accumulation late evening/overnight. Temps are a bit warm... but focuses the 700 convergence nicely up 44.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 5, 2018 17:27:17 GMT -6
The fv3 shows a setup dependent on weak CAA as the precip is shutting down and evaporational cooling.
Its extremely marginal.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2018 18:11:12 GMT -6
Heck I think it would be cool to see a few flakes. That would make it the shortest gap between flakes I've ever seen. Remember we had snow showers on April 16th.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 5, 2018 21:33:47 GMT -6
Nam has a good burst of wet snow Thursday night. Id keep an eye with that little clipper energy coming down in the trough Friday. Could bring another burst of snow with it
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