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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 5, 2018 22:00:24 GMT -6
Yea, I'm interested in that little spinner coming in with the secondary cold front Friday. Pretty good chance of generating some snow showers to get us all in the mood.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 6, 2018 0:37:43 GMT -6
Serious night from MS/ northern AL thru TN
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 6, 2018 7:20:58 GMT -6
There seems to be some consensus on the track of the "scooped" up lead wave...with the center of the vort passing just northwest of STL...roughly from KC to Quincy...and it is along that track that the greatest potential exists for some light accumulations of snow. I think we are right on track with a cold light rain...mixing/changing to light snow/flurries scenario for Thursday night into Friday morning. Some snow bursts/squalls may be possible in the wake of that shortwave.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 6, 2018 7:41:56 GMT -6
It's a shame we can't get some secondary development Friday evening like we did last week with our perfect def. zone. Looks like things will get swept away though. At this point in the year I'll just take a few flakes and be happy with it.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 6, 2018 10:42:48 GMT -6
The name has a nice banding feature with us getting a little bit of moderate wet snow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 6, 2018 11:14:08 GMT -6
The name has a nice banding feature with us getting a little bit of moderate wet snow That would be nice but it's a strong outlier with much more phasing involved. Not saying it can't happen, it just doesn't have any support right now.
Models bring down a very impressive chunk of arctic airmass this time next week with some clipper opportunities.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 6, 2018 11:18:30 GMT -6
The name has a nice banding feature with us getting a little bit of moderate wet snow That would be nice but it's a strong outlier with much more phasing involved. Not saying it can't happen, it just doesn't have any support right now.
Models bring down a very impressive chunk of arctic airmass this time next week with some clipper opportunities.
Next week looks entirely too cold for this time of the year. I drastically slashed moss temperatures for Monday and Tuesday we may not get above freezing Tuesday for a high |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 6, 2018 11:24:08 GMT -6
The name has a nice banding feature with us getting a little bit of moderate wet snow That would be nice but it's a strong outlier with much more phasing involved. Not saying it can't happen, it just doesn't have any support right now.
Models bring down a very impressive chunk of arctic airmass this time next week with some clipper opportunities.
BRTN are you concerned about winter getting off to too quick of a start like we saw a few years ago? I'm not as much because I think the cold bank is much deeper. It rebuilds quickly after each release. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 6, 2018 11:25:34 GMT -6
This November might be on track to beat the 2013 November in terms of cold and overall snow potential. Seems like the pattern wants to relax come December but looks brutal at times the next couple weeks.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 6, 2018 11:42:22 GMT -6
That would be nice but it's a strong outlier with much more phasing involved. Not saying it can't happen, it just doesn't have any support right now.
Models bring down a very impressive chunk of arctic airmass this time next week with some clipper opportunities.
BRTN are you concerned about winter getting off to too quick of a start like we saw a few years ago? I'm not as much because I think the cold bank is much deeper. It rebuilds quickly after each release. The fact that this pattern has been slowly but surely locking in over the past 20+ days makes me think that this isn't just a temporary blip...I think it will likely be repeated as we head into the core winter months. There is definitely a large and impressive reserve of frigid air in place across the source region and it doesn't appear to get wiped out at all. As long as we hang onto the anomalous ridge in the EPO/PNA domain we should be in business. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 6, 2018 12:09:11 GMT -6
I tend to think the cold water in the north atlantic around Greenland (a big switch from recent years) will play a roll in how the upper pattern plays out this winter..as that should have an impact on blocking in the higher lattitudes...Im just not sure how that will play with the Modiki El Nino pattern in the Pacific...and where the balance will be found.
If history is a good indicator...just based on the cold November so far...we should relax this pattern around or just before thanksgiving while the pattern reloads...how long? I have no idea...but I have to think the Jan and Feb period could be quite cold.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 6, 2018 12:32:45 GMT -6
i agree with your thoughts chris....not that it matters because youre the one who knows what he is talking about. but a relaxation in mid to late november followed by a cold late december through january is what im thinking. am concerned that the storm track may set up a bit further south and bring more snow to southern mo but thats getting too far ahead. i foresee alot of watchers this winter.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 6, 2018 13:18:31 GMT -6
I agree with the southern track...but think there may be more northward play at times...so we could end up with pretty close to normal snowfall...maybe 18 to 24 for the season.
The FAM to MVN corridor may have a really good season.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 6, 2018 13:35:22 GMT -6
I agree with the southern track...but think there may be more northward play at times...so we could end up with pretty close to normal snowfall...maybe 18 to 24 for the season. The FAM to MVN corridor may have a really good season. I'm gonna remember you said that Chris. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 6, 2018 16:48:48 GMT -6
yeah im sticking with my earlier number. my post wasnt meant to convey that im swaying from that at all.
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 6, 2018 16:52:17 GMT -6
I hope we wake up to a surprise Friday Morning a little more than a Inch.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 6, 2018 17:46:23 GMT -6
Given that this winter, IMO, should be relatively snowy than we've seen for several years (not even considering what happens the next two weeks - my number is 24), I'm going to ask the question that I asked last year - what is a good source for Euro - I'd be willing to pay a subscription. my apologies for asking the question again. I was never excited about last year, so I never subscribed. Weatherbell or weathermodels Point of order... THE EURO FOLKS ARE CRACKING DOWN... YOU MAY NOT POST EURO CHARTS ONLINE...IN ANY FORM...SO NO POSTING EURO. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2018 18:48:25 GMT -6
Given that this winter, IMO, should be relatively snowy than we've seen for several years (not even considering what happens the next two weeks - my number is 24), I'm going to ask the question that I asked last year - what is a good source for Euro - I'd be willing to pay a subscription. my apologies for asking the question again. I was never excited about last year, so I never subscribed. Weatherbell or weathermodels Point of order... THE EURO FOLKS ARE CRACKING DOWN... YOU MAY NOT POST EURO CHARTS ONLINE...IN ANY FORM...SO NO POSTING EURO. People can still go to weather.us for free. |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 6, 2018 19:02:01 GMT -6
I hope we wake up to a surprise Friday Morning a little more than a Inch. Not likely |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2018 20:31:42 GMT -6
00z nam looks awfully healthy for early Friday. Those north of 70 would see some moderate snow for a few hours.
12z euro had a more robust storm than the gfs as well.
I think KC to Quincy will do well.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 6, 2018 20:38:54 GMT -6
I hope it's ok to post other outlets Winter forecasts on here? Delete if this is a no no. I know I have mentioned this guy from Southern Indiana before so I think it is ok to do so... Anyways he just released his final Winter forecast for Dec,Jan and Feb. Sounds fairly close to what some of the folks on here have said I think. But I'm curious to see what some of your thoughts are on this. While he doesn't go in to as much detail as I have seen him do before in past forecasts. He does break it down pretty good. Enjoy. youtu.be/IPEgiAVictM |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2018 21:54:09 GMT -6
Pretty strong agreement now between the 00z nam and 00z gfs.
Late Thursday night into early Friday morning a band of light to moderate snow will hit just north of St. Louis.
Considering the time of day and decent precip intensity I could see a sloppy 1-2 inches for the northern counties.
The 2 inches would be the exception to the rule, but I do feel good about some board members seeing some legitimate snow.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 6, 2018 22:02:55 GMT -6
Pretty strong agreement now between the 00z nam and 00z gfs. Late Thursday night into early Friday morning a band of light to moderate snow will hit just north of St. Louis. Considering the time of day and decent precip intensity I could see a sloppy 1-2 inches for the northern counties. The 2 inches would be the exception to the rule, but I do feel good about some board members seeing some legitimate snow. Thanks for keeping ur old town informed! Much appreciated! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2018 22:09:15 GMT -6
Pretty strong agreement now between the 00z nam and 00z gfs. Late Thursday night into early Friday morning a band of light to moderate snow will hit just north of St. Louis. Considering the time of day and decent precip intensity I could see a sloppy 1-2 inches for the northern counties. The 2 inches would be the exception to the rule, but I do feel good about some board members seeing some legitimate snow. Thanks for keeping ur old town informed! Much appreciated! It's weird because I still look at the St. Louis metro first on the map and then have to reorient northeast when I remember where I live lol. I was yelling at the nam to push that band of snow 20 miles south. Regardless, looks like this storm could have enough coverage to get us all. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 6, 2018 22:14:27 GMT -6
Pretty strong agreement now between the 00z nam and 00z gfs. Late Thursday night into early Friday morning a band of light to moderate snow will hit just north of St. Louis. Considering the time of day and decent precip intensity I could see a sloppy 1-2 inches for the northern counties. The 2 inches would be the exception to the rule, but I do feel good about some board members seeing some legitimate snow. The Nam and hi res NAM are showing several hours of good lift between 850mb and 500mb in the metro Thursday evening. The soundings look borderline for snow but any decent precep rates will easily overcome a borderline temp boundary layer. Timing of day will help to |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 6, 2018 22:22:58 GMT -6
Best fronto forcing looks just north of the metro on the NAM but there is good lift centered right over the metro  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 6, 2018 22:24:18 GMT -6
Probably worth watching early next week as well (Tuesdayish). Models showing a low pulling out of the Gulf and hitting the east coast. If the artic front comes in as heavy as modeled, the storm will be suppressed.
Otherwise, I expect a bit more cutting.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 6, 2018 22:26:24 GMT -6
That's a pretty interesting storm showing up on the Euro and GFS at D6 as well.
Edit: WSC beat me to it.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 6, 2018 23:33:50 GMT -6
I think that the name and the other models might be overdoing the amount of evaporation a cooling Friday evening.
Winds are coming out of the East all the way up to 7,000 feet.
The antecedent airmass is not that cold but is very dry.
I mean along i64/70 through the metro the Nam shows 800mb to surface temps sharply drop 3-5c in a Few hours well before winds turn Northerly as weak cyclogenesis takes shape from SE Mo to Memphis.
There is a trend towards extra precip as the cold airmass and the associated jet push in.
It's trending towards a heavy dusting to 1/4 inch of mood snows the last hour of the precip
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 6, 2018 23:37:16 GMT -6
Right now I think Wentzville to like Litchfield especially on the Missouri side is in the prime Zone to get a couple inches from this but I do think the best band of precip as currently stands or run along I-70 and reach down into the Metro I think banded precipitation will slowly saggy Southeast as the system moves to our South.
If cooling does happen this will drop a period of moderate snow with large flakes.
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