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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 7, 2018 13:14:03 GMT -6
At this point the GFS is about the only model not showing snow Monday. Helps that the time has been brought closer as well. Canadian, Euro, newgfs all have it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 7, 2018 13:57:02 GMT -6
haha... The 12Z European is a carbon copy of the Chris's corner shirt For Monday and Tuesday. It doesn't get any better than that.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 7, 2018 14:36:10 GMT -6
haha... The 12Z European is a carbon copy of the Chris's corner shirt For Monday and Tuesday. It doesn't get any better than that. Snow to the north and south with nothing right thru the Metro? Lol |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 7, 2018 17:33:07 GMT -6
Who wants to make a bet that the storm will pass off to our east and New England will get their "once-in-a-lifetime" blizzard out of the way early this season?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 7, 2018 18:28:25 GMT -6
Who wants to make a bet that the storm will pass off to our east and New England will get their "once-in-a-lifetime" blizzard out of the way early this season? If I had actual money on it I would probably go with that. The flow is kind of east-based but the euro gives us some hope. Gfs is trying to bring it back west. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 7, 2018 19:21:40 GMT -6
So the record snow fall totals for tomorrow is a “trace” as is Friday a trace. For the 12th and 13th it’s .1” (in 1907) and 2.3” respectively. It’s quite possible we shatter 3 or 4 records and maybe even a 100 year old record daily snowfall total all within a week. Now that’s forward progress!!
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 7, 2018 20:07:09 GMT -6
NAM is further south and is a solid hit for most of the metro now. Keep the positive signs a comin!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2018 22:16:31 GMT -6
Hi Res NAM is suggesting some intense snow squall action Friday evening  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 7, 2018 22:20:42 GMT -6
00z gem looks pretty awesome for next week.
00z gfs trying to edge west, but struggling.
Let's go euro.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 7, 2018 22:24:39 GMT -6
Gfs looks better than previous runs imo. Gets things going further west. Getting closer to that phase we need.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2018 22:29:09 GMT -6
Gfs looks better than previous runs imo. Gets things going further west. Getting closer to that phase we need. Really need the trough to go negative. GFS dosent have it go negative until its on the east coast. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 7, 2018 23:10:12 GMT -6
Man it’s nice having the 00z suite come out earlier. I’m getting old.
And no offense - I’d prefer the Mon/Tue system to not happen as I’ll be not in StL.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 7, 2018 23:11:17 GMT -6
I think some of the squalls on Friday could have 5-minute blizzard characteristics.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 7, 2018 23:16:54 GMT -6
I think some of the squalls on Friday could have 5-minute blizzard characteristics. That Hi Res NAM sounding even has some instability through the DGZ |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2018 5:10:24 GMT -6
Yeah the clipper digging through on Friday has been a sleeper...I haven't seen anyone except for Chris carrying any mention of snow potential during the afternoon. Models are showing a pocket of intense CAA working down the river that should spark off instability showers/squalls with falling temps as the true arctic front pushes through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2018 5:22:19 GMT -6
Today marks the 4th aniversary of one of the strongest non-tropical cyclones ever recorded which bombed out in the Bering Sea. This was one of the major drivers of the cold outbreak that followed across the lower 48.   |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 8, 2018 6:14:39 GMT -6
I've always been really suspicious of claims of river-effect snow around here, but it can happen. I think there may be a small chance for it to happen tomorrow. Supporting circumstances include: - Time of year - It's early in the season so water temperatures may not have equilibriated to the environment yet.
- Steep lapse rates - There is a -12C difference between the surface and 850mb tomorrow with some surface based instability.
- Relative humidity - Dewpoint depressions aren't extreme, but there may be enough to keep precipitation frozen if the temperature does go above 32F.
- Wind shear - The shear is almost perfectly unidirectional tomorrow.
- Long fetch times - Winds will be out of the NW or W. Ideally NW would be better as this maximizes the fetch times.
- High river levels - More water means less chance of cooling and higher surface area for the moisture fetch.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 6:19:55 GMT -6
I think some of the squalls on Friday could have 5-minute blizzard characteristics. One of my favorite events ever! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 6:43:50 GMT -6
Interesting trends on the HRRR for this evening/tonight. It brings the R/S line to a screeching halt from near Jefferson City up to Jerseyville. The RPM has been bouncing north and south with that line too. I've stayed the course with the 00z runs...bringing the snow into metro STL... but I could see a solution playing out close to the HRRR...we still get some flakes in metro STL...so the going public forecast is still safe. The folks southeast of town will have to wait until the flurries/snow bursts or snow squalls tomorrow with either scenario.
The RAP is trending that way too...and is very similar to the HRRR in the 11z run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 8, 2018 7:37:50 GMT -6
Seems more likely that areas south of I-44/I-70 won't see a drop let alone snow from Tonight's wave. Very sharp cut off to the QFP from north to south with Metro St. Louis straddling the line with precip northwestern half and dry for the southeastern half.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 8, 2018 8:05:45 GMT -6
Definitely a nW trend.
Brtn might get some snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 8, 2018 8:20:47 GMT -6
i bet I see absolutely nothing outside a sprinkle
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 8:36:24 GMT -6
Nam is picking up on some pretty robust snow squalls tomorrow. That'll pretty well be the extent of it for all of us it seems.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 8:39:13 GMT -6
Euro last night was still on board with some snow Monday, though it has backed off the fully phased solution and appears to be caving to the GFS. Canadian still phases it but is alone at the moment.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 8:50:49 GMT -6
I am not making any changes to the tonight portion of the forecast...a light coating/mood snow with any activity from midnight to 3am for metro STL...maybe 1/2" to 1" up towards Bowling Green and out towards Montgomery City. I am actually more concerned about tomorrow evening's rush than I am the morning. The potential for potent snow bursts...short hitting...but intense...coming into the evening rush hour could be problematic. Add in the gusty winds and falling temps and we could have a bit of a mess on our hands... one of those low QPF...higher impact events.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 8:58:04 GMT -6
I'm just excited at the prospect of some snow showers in the air tomorrow this early in the year.
Chris, any thoughts on what is more likely to happen with the system Monday?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 8, 2018 9:08:14 GMT -6
I'm just excited at the prospect of some snow showers in the air tomorrow this early in the year. Chris, any thoughts on what is more likely to happen with the system Monday? I suspect we have a period of at least some light snow. I think the GFS is too phased and stretched out. The trend this year so far has been to keep the southern energy more intact and separate...so that's the way I'm leaning. I'm not saying it is a big deal... but at least another chance for some snow. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 10:17:10 GMT -6
Well the GFS pulled the Monday system back west several hundred miles but still no good unless you live in Tennessee. Canadian still likes us a lot though.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 8, 2018 10:46:28 GMT -6
Canadian is beautiful.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 8, 2018 10:58:08 GMT -6
It has been consistent, I'll say that much. Its like the GFS wants to but just doesn't pull it together in time. Just eyeballing the loops from both of them separately, the Canadian looks more reasonable to me. But there any many more well trained eyes than mine to judge that. A major snowfall in Nashville in November seems extremely unlikely. It either slides down along the coast then up the east coast or gets its act together in time for us to have some fun. Can you tell I miss snow? |
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