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Post by nascarfan999 on Oct 27, 2018 0:17:21 GMT -6
Right about now would be the right time to be glad you aren't working on the late late late late (and counting) edition of FOX2 News at 9pm.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 27, 2018 8:05:24 GMT -6
Right about now would be the right time to be glad you aren't working on the late late late late (and counting) edition of FOX2 News at 9pm. Jasmine Huda did a Facebook post about 1:15 am lamenting the extra innings. Little did she know it was going to be over an hour more. Did they finally ever do a 10 PM news last night? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 27, 2018 8:31:05 GMT -6
Northern New England got a good foundation for the ski season this week. Whether it sticks around or melts is another question  |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 27, 2018 8:56:21 GMT -6
It looks it could snow right now if it was colder! The sky and dark clouds look like winter! Went to Pasta House for supper. Came out of the restaurant and thought the same thing. If it was a bit cooler it had that feel This post made me sad. Not for the snow...for the fact that there aren't any Pasta Houses in Belleville/Fairview any more. I guess the nearest one to me is Edwardsville? |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 27, 2018 9:37:45 GMT -6
Gonna be another windy day tomorrow, especially along and east of the river.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 27, 2018 10:18:36 GMT -6
We have a Pasta House in Festus MO! It’s pretty new just a few years old!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 27, 2018 10:36:22 GMT -6
Went to Pasta House for supper. Came out of the restaurant and thought the same thing. If it was a bit cooler it had that feel This post made me sad. Not for the snow...for the fact that there aren't any Pasta Houses in Belleville/Fairview any more. I guess the nearest one to me is Edwardsville? I know they've closed some of their locations. I'm also saddened that they have cut back on what comes with the meals - in many cases the salad used to be included but is now extra. As well as some other things that used to be part of the entree are no longer there. . At least at the St. Peters and O'Fallon locations. But that date has has fallen at other restaurants, too. |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 27, 2018 10:54:36 GMT -6
Gonna be another windy day tomorrow, especially along and east of the river. Models vary on how much mixing... but winds align nicely up thru the column and when you have cold advection at the 850 level- these parcels will want to mix down. 40+ mph winds certainly seem possible especially early in the afternoon.  |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 27, 2018 11:27:51 GMT -6
Dave thinks that the rain will clear on Wednesday in time for the trick r treaters. Fingers crossed, we've had some wet Halloweens over the last decade it seems.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 27, 2018 20:21:16 GMT -6
Now I’m reading through the Jan 2, 2014 blog. Man that storm was fun! We had to dig out a section of the yard for our Golden Retriever to use as the snow was too high for him to navigate through.
If I recall correctly, that storm wasn’t all snow for me - I think I had moments of graupel during the onset, but once it started, it didn’t stop. The snow | wind was beautiful to watch pile up.
Here’s to hoping Chris’ wooly worm spotting lends itself to fun storms to watch!
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 27, 2018 20:35:18 GMT -6
It's almost "meh" season.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 27, 2018 21:13:04 GMT -6
It would be cool if someone could quantify the ratio of digital snow to real snow for St. Louis this year. To be representative I think you need to pick a lead time window from one cycle daily so as not to duplicate digital snow from multiple daily cycles. So you could add up the digital snow from say the 120-144 window from the 0Z cycle. Since this in a 24 hour window that moves by 24 hours each day you'd have a 1-to-1 match with the total number of actual hours in the season. You should be able to come up with a realistic digital-to-actual ratio I think.
Anyone want to guess? Would the ratio be close to 1.0? Less than 1.0? Or greater than 1.0?
I'm betting it would be greater than 1.0...just saying.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 27, 2018 21:26:37 GMT -6
It would be cool if someone could quantify the ratio of digital snow to real snow for St. Louis this year. To be representative I think you need to pick a lead time window from one cycle daily so as not to duplicate digital snow from multiple daily cycles. So you could add up the digital snow from say the 120-144 window from the 0Z cycle. Since this in a 24 hour window that moves by 24 hours each day you'd have a 1-to-1 match with the total number of actual hours in the season. You should be able to come up with a realistic digital-to-actual ratio I think. Anyone want to guess? Would the ratio be close to 1.0? Less than 1.0? Or greater than 1.0? I'm betting it would be greater than 1.0...just saying. The digital-to-actual ratio would be undefined... Lots of digital snow in the numerator and zero snow in the denominator... |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 27, 2018 21:45:22 GMT -6
It would be cool if someone could quantify the ratio of digital snow to real snow for St. Louis this year. To be representative I think you need to pick a lead time window from one cycle daily so as not to duplicate digital snow from multiple daily cycles. So you could add up the digital snow from say the 120-144 window from the 0Z cycle. Since this in a 24 hour window that moves by 24 hours each day you'd have a 1-to-1 match with the total number of actual hours in the season. You should be able to come up with a realistic digital-to-actual ratio I think. Anyone want to guess? Would the ratio be close to 1.0? Less than 1.0? Or greater than 1.0? I'm betting it would be greater than 1.0...just saying. The digital-to-actual ratio would be undefined... Lots of digital snow in the numerator and zero snow in the denominator... Well played! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 28, 2018 10:49:15 GMT -6
Let's hope we can hold onto this pattern through the next couple months.
Gfs brings several midlatitude cyclones through the next 2 weeks.
There is even some snow potential if some cold air can get drawn in as we head towards the second week of November.
Nothing is getting sheared out now.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Oct 28, 2018 11:50:13 GMT -6
Right about now would be the right time to be glad you aren't working on the late late late late (and counting) edition of FOX2 News at 9pm. Jasmine Huda did a Facebook post about 1:15 am lamenting the extra innings. Little did she know it was going to be over an hour more. Did they finally ever do a 10 PM news last night? Charlie Marlow tweeted that they were sent home around 1:30. |
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Post by mchafin on Oct 28, 2018 12:50:17 GMT -6
So. What if you find a wholly worm that is completely black on the back, and brown on the belly???
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2018 13:19:46 GMT -6
that means you have found a creepy crawly critter that means nothing along with any other color worms.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 28, 2018 13:50:51 GMT -6
Jasmine Huda did a Facebook post about 1:15 am lamenting the extra innings. Little did she know it was going to be over an hour more. Did they finally ever do a 10 PM news last night? Charlie Marlow tweeted that they were sent home around 1:30. A friend posted on Facebook that the KC Fox affiliate stayed and did their news at about 3:30 am. Chris what honcho at the station makes that sort of a call at the wee hours? Does someone call and wake up the station manager or news director? |
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Post by weatherj on Oct 28, 2018 14:22:09 GMT -6
Quite windy right now, good call on that one coz. I was looking back in the old blog through the winter seasons and what a mess 09/10 was..hah. Cold and a fascinating season nationally for sure, but man was that ever a cruel winter for all the big cyclones missing us (with frozen precip) in every direction. It's a good trend thus far more wrapped up systems are on the horizon and not sheared apart as wsc alluded to. Let's bring a couple, or more like several nice 3-6" type of events this winter season. Anymore, 6+ is a bonus IMO.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 28, 2018 15:10:49 GMT -6
watch the secondary development midweek. See if it trends north in coming days. Could be a good clue as to what happens this winter.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 28, 2018 15:11:43 GMT -6
i was hoping the winds would die down late this afternoon, but theyve seem to have gotten worse especially in the past hour. furniture keeps getting tossed. is there some kind of local effect cuz synoptically i thght that clipper shld be moving away by now and the winds shld be subsiding. i guess no campfire this evening.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Oct 28, 2018 15:23:35 GMT -6
Wind has wreaked havoc on my Halloween decs...a couple weeks of work done in by these crazy gusts. I'll take rain over wind any day leading up to Halloween.
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Post by weatherj on Oct 28, 2018 15:39:34 GMT -6
I like wind when it's whipping snow everywhere.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 28, 2018 16:09:04 GMT -6
i was hoping the winds would die down late this afternoon, but theyve seem to have gotten worse especially in the past hour. furniture keeps getting tossed. is there some kind of local effect cuz synoptically i thght that clipper shld be moving away by now and the winds shld be subsiding. i guess no campfire this evening. As of 19z the nearest NUCAPS derived sounding showed mixing up to 850mb in central MO which should be a reasonable proxy for the Stl area. We've continued to stay warm in the late afternoon and the pressure gradient associated with the clipper is still fairly strong even as the system slides east. So we've continued to tap some of the strong winds aloft. Winds will die down soon as the boundary layer cools, stabilizes, and thermals cease. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 28, 2018 16:33:31 GMT -6
It's a good thing of course, but there has still not been a violent tornado (EF4+) in the US this year. The last was an EF4 in Canton TX in April 2017. I'm not really sure but that has got to be one of the longer spans since tornado ratings began.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 28, 2018 16:49:52 GMT -6
watch the secondary development midweek. See if it trends north in coming days. Could be a good clue as to what happens this winter. Yea, I think that could give us a hint to the overall pattern we seem to be entering. Hope to see that and not a progressive pattern. We are already a step ahead that systems aren't getting sheared out. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 28, 2018 21:33:23 GMT -6
watch the secondary development midweek. See if it trends north in coming days. Could be a good clue as to what happens this winter. So the question is, will we be saying, "two weeks" this year? |
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Post by mchafin on Oct 28, 2018 22:22:21 GMT -6
watch the secondary development midweek. See if it trends north in coming days. Could be a good clue as to what happens this winter. So the question is, will we be saying, "two weeks" this year? We’ve two-weeked ourselves through the last couple of winters. I don’t care to do another! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 29, 2018 4:22:21 GMT -6
I've been digging more into the winter forecast...and fine tuning my thoughts (guesses).
I have no hopes that its going to be correct or even close to accurate... but it will be fun to try.
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