Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57 
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Oct 29, 2018 6:31:35 GMT -6
We have a Pasta House in Festus MO! It’s pretty new just a few years old! We have one in Farmington also; used to go about once a month but as they seem to be cutting back on what comes with the meal and making the portions smaller, it has become a once or twice a year thing. I've noticed that their parking lot doesn't have nearly the cars in it that it used to. Made me think about having dinner there sometime in the mid-90s; it was flurrying when we got there and by the time we left, you could barely see to drive. I still remember taking nearly an hour to get back to Fredericktown. It was one of those times where we received about 3-4 inches of "light flurries"! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 29, 2018 7:06:32 GMT -6
We have a Pasta House in Festus MO! It’s pretty new just a few years old! We have one in Farmington also; used to go about once a month but as they seem to be cutting back on what comes with the meal and making the portions smaller, it has become a once or twice a year thing. I've noticed that their parking lot doesn't have nearly the cars in it that it used to. That's the same types of things I've noticed, as well |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 29, 2018 7:44:34 GMT -6
Tornado warning this morning in a bit of an unusual place, especially for this time of year: Cape Cod
And Hurricane Oscar in the middle of the Atlantic looking like it's not going to bother anyone. Can't help hear that name and not think of Oscar the Grouch
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 29, 2018 8:48:22 GMT -6
Have a Pasta House here in Union. Does pretty good business from what I can tell, particularly on weekends. Pretty good food. Been here about 6 or 7 years I think.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 29, 2018 9:56:50 GMT -6
So the question is, will we be saying, "two weeks" this year? We’ve two-weeked ourselves through the last couple of winters. I don’t care to do another! OHHH I totally second that! |
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Post by Jeffmw on Oct 29, 2018 10:24:59 GMT -6
Dave posted a interesting estimated snow coverage map of the US in the timeframe by December 10th. Has anyone else seen it?
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Oct 29, 2018 10:42:52 GMT -6
You have to remember the old one was already a used car when it was converted into the storm runner. It had 100000 miles on it before I ever drove it. Really nice! Is this Yukon Storm Runner new? Could you elaborate (or link) on new type weather station that replaced the Davis? |
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Post by cozpregon on Oct 29, 2018 10:46:21 GMT -6
Tornado warning this morning in a bit of an unusual place, especially for this time of year: Cape Cod And Hurricane Oscar in the middle of the Atlantic looking like it's not going to bother anyone. Can't help hear that name and not think of Oscar the Grouch Have to see if Oscar will do any damage to the floating Pasta House out there in the Atlantic. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 29, 2018 11:55:11 GMT -6
Dave posted a interesting estimated snow coverage map of the US in the timeframe by December 10th. Has anyone else seen it? It's just the euro snowfall forecast the next 46 days. It updates twice a week I think. Don't take it seriously. Just basically indicates snow will be likely across the northern part of the country, which is obviously normal through early December. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 29, 2018 11:59:25 GMT -6
Dave posted a interesting estimated snow coverage map of the US in the timeframe by December 10th. Has anyone else seen it? im guessing all that is is just a graph depicting what one model is assuming as snow and doesnt reflect any variations of precip that can occur in borderline situations. iirc it has abt 2 inches of fantasy snow very close to st louis. meanwhile, wow, that little clipper like system early this weekend....could be cold raw and drizzly. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 29, 2018 12:02:36 GMT -6
yeah what snowman said. its just something to get the masses excited and the graph is close to climo on who should get snow by then.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 29, 2018 13:25:01 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 29, 2018 13:55:27 GMT -6
I've been digging more into the winter forecast...and fine tuning my thoughts (guesses). I have no hopes that its going to be correct or even close to accurate... but it will be fun to try. This is a big ‘un  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 29, 2018 14:37:13 GMT -6
That's a blue ribbon wooly worm!
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Post by mchafin on Oct 29, 2018 14:37:24 GMT -6
Yeah ElKay23, I mentioned the other day that one I found (on Tesson near Mercy South) was all black on the back, which was a significant difference from the ones I saw in Pana, IL which were mostly brown, save 3 sections.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 29, 2018 14:38:49 GMT -6
<-- This picture is from that big snow in early Jan 2014. That was so much fun to watch pile up.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 29, 2018 15:48:37 GMT -6
I remember when it used to snow. Good times.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 29, 2018 16:13:19 GMT -6
12z euro actually has an interesting cutter in day 8-10 range.
Modeled to drop snow across parts of Missouri and Illinois.
Its that time of year again
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 29, 2018 16:18:34 GMT -6
My daughter, now 8, doesn't even remember a big snow. I'm trying to recall, but I don't think she's even had a legitimate snow day from school. Oh and I bought some winter/snow boots 3 years ago...haven't worn them once.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 29, 2018 16:25:09 GMT -6
12z euro actually has an interesting cutter in day 8-10 range. Modeled to drop snow across parts of Missouri and Illinois. Its that time of year again
Yeah I saw that. Couple of decent looking storms over the next 10 days in the middle of the country on that run. But will we see that in the Winter months, and if we do will the cold be there with it...?
Now, you probably don't have to worry as much. I mean you practically live in the Arctic Circle now  . |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 29, 2018 17:17:23 GMT -6
Put a leash on that thing, Elkay!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 29, 2018 17:32:27 GMT -6
12z euro actually has an interesting cutter in day 8-10 range. Modeled to drop snow across parts of Missouri and Illinois. Its that time of year again
Yeah I saw that. Couple of decent looking storms over the next 10 days in the middle of the country on that run. But will we see that in the Winter months, and if we do will the cold be there with it...?
Now, you probably don't have to worry as much. I mean you practically live in the Arctic Circle now . I'm trying to keep my commentary limited to at least both our regions lol. Early on, I still expect St. Louis to get more snow just based on being further west and how these storms are cutting. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 29, 2018 17:36:33 GMT -6
Whew...we are dangerously close to getting some of that digital snow on the Euro. To make things easy I'm just going to just keep track of the snow that the GFS shows. I've got my spreadsheet ready to go.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 29, 2018 17:41:31 GMT -6
Whew...we are dangerously close to getting some of that digital snow on the Euro. To make things easy I'm just going to just keep track of the snow that the GFS shows. I've got my spreadsheet ready to go. How are you accounting for a storm that gets pushed back in time on the models? |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 29, 2018 19:30:09 GMT -6
Whew...we are dangerously close to getting some of that digital snow on the Euro. To make things easy I'm just going to just keep track of the snow that the GFS shows. I've got my spreadsheet ready to go. How are you accounting for a storm that gets pushed back in time on the models? I'm not. I'm just going to take the snowfall in a single fixed 24 hour window of the model run say from 72-96 hours. I'll only do this for the 12Z cycle only. Doing it this way I'll have an exact 1-to-1 match with modeled hours vs actual hours. In other words, no day will be represented any more or any less than exactly 1 time. If the model is perfect then the ratio of digital-to-actual would be exactly 1.0. I do concede that if the model moves the storm to a later date then it could be double counted. But that's not my fault that the model said we'd get X amount of snow on a particular date that didn't materialize in reality. It was still a legit forecast for that particular date. Plus, if the model isn't biased then it should be just as likely that it will move a storm to an earlier date in which case it wouldn't be counted at all. Or as is often the case snow events can appear with little warning and would not be counted at all. These effects should wash out assuming all other things are equal which I realize they likely aren't. If there's a problem with methodology it'll probably become obvious right away. I'll actually track 4 forecast windows, but I'll keep them completely separate in the accounting. I'm hoping to answer questions like "If the GFS shows 6" of snow in it's 72-96 hour forecast then how much can we expect to actually occur?" The same question would apply for the windows 120-144, 168-192, and 216-240. I have a hypothesis that the GFS has a weird bias for showing more and more "fantasy" storms the further out in the lead it gets. I could be wrong though. We frequently get snows that only show up within the 5 or even 3 day windows. We'll see how this all plays out. If this experiment turns out to be a big flop I'll at least have the twisted satisfaction of wasting my time with it just like how we all currently waste our time waiting for snow that never seems to happen  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 29, 2018 19:47:35 GMT -6
How are you accounting for a storm that gets pushed back in time on the models? I'm not. I'm just going to take the snowfall in a single fixed 24 hour window of the model run say from 72-96 hours. I'll only do this for the 12Z cycle only. Doing it this way I'll have an exact 1-to-1 match with modeled hours vs actual hours. In other words, no day will be represented any more or any less than exactly 1 time. If the model is perfect then the ratio of digital-to-actual would be exactly 1.0. I do concede that if the model moves the storm to a later date then it could be double counted. But that's not my fault that the model said we'd get X amount of snow on a particular date that didn't materialize in reality. It was still a legit forecast for that particular date. Plus, if the model isn't biased then it should be just as likely that it will move a storm to an earlier date in which case it wouldn't be counted at all. Or as is often the case snow events can appear with little warning and would not be counted at all. These effects should wash out assuming all other things are equal which I realize they likely aren't. If there's a problem with methodology it'll probably become obvious right away. I'll actually track 4 forecast windows, but I'll keep them completely separate in the accounting. I'm hoping to answer questions like "If the GFS shows 6" of snow in it's 72-96 hour forecast then how much can we expect to actually occur?" The same question would apply for the windows 120-144, 168-192, and 216-240. I have a hypothesis that the GFS has a weird bias for showing more and more "fantasy" storms the further out in the lead it gets. I could be wrong though. We frequently get snows that only show up within the 5 or even 3 day windows. We'll see how this all plays out. If this experiment turns out to be a big flop I'll at least have the twisted satisfaction of wasting my time with it just like how we all currently waste our time waiting for snow that never seems to happen This is interesting... It could be a cognitive bias, but it seems the models show a 20 plus inch snow at least once a winter in the 7-10 range. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 29, 2018 20:03:38 GMT -6
I'm not. I'm just going to take the snowfall in a single fixed 24 hour window of the model run say from 72-96 hours. I'll only do this for the 12Z cycle only. Doing it this way I'll have an exact 1-to-1 match with modeled hours vs actual hours. In other words, no day will be represented any more or any less than exactly 1 time. If the model is perfect then the ratio of digital-to-actual would be exactly 1.0. I do concede that if the model moves the storm to a later date then it could be double counted. But that's not my fault that the model said we'd get X amount of snow on a particular date that didn't materialize in reality. It was still a legit forecast for that particular date. Plus, if the model isn't biased then it should be just as likely that it will move a storm to an earlier date in which case it wouldn't be counted at all. Or as is often the case snow events can appear with little warning and would not be counted at all. These effects should wash out assuming all other things are equal which I realize they likely aren't. If there's a problem with methodology it'll probably become obvious right away. I'll actually track 4 forecast windows, but I'll keep them completely separate in the accounting. I'm hoping to answer questions like "If the GFS shows 6" of snow in it's 72-96 hour forecast then how much can we expect to actually occur?" The same question would apply for the windows 120-144, 168-192, and 216-240. I have a hypothesis that the GFS has a weird bias for showing more and more "fantasy" storms the further out in the lead it gets. I could be wrong though. We frequently get snows that only show up within the 5 or even 3 day windows. We'll see how this all plays out. If this experiment turns out to be a big flop I'll at least have the twisted satisfaction of wasting my time with it just like how we all currently waste our time waiting for snow that never seems to happen This is interesting... It could be a cognitive bias, but it seems the models show a 20 plus inch snow at least once a winter in the 7-10 range. Exactly. That's what I'm thinking too. Hopefully we can start to answer that question assuming there's nothing egregiously wrong with my methodology. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 29, 2018 20:36:14 GMT -6
Tomorrow could push 80 for the high if clouds hold back. Gonna be toasty.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 29, 2018 21:02:38 GMT -6
if it hits 80, given that we have had our frost, then it will be indian summer based upon the definition that i knew growing up. although the old farmers almanac has a diff def. the saying all saints winter, st martins indian summer is what OFA defines as IS. wikipedia uses very general terms to define IS. I guess the 80 temp is a local criterion.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 29, 2018 21:08:46 GMT -6
ive tried checking model lead times vs actuals in the past. i quickly gave up. the biggest issue was timing. storms at that lead time may still be there but either sped up or slowed down. i think a slightly better approach is what the synoptic p pattern was progged at that lead time vs actuals.
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