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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 29, 2018 21:44:44 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen with another insightful update today...
Mentions the potential for the PV to be disrupted heading into late November/early December.
Obviously the post went into way more technical info, but it at least hints at the possibility of an early start to winter.
For the pessimists...there is also talk of very mild temps in the absence of a weakened or dislodged PV throughout the winter.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 30, 2018 0:03:42 GMT -6
GFS with beautiful secondary development election day eve/election day. If it was colder we'd be in business. I can't wait to be saying this same exact thing 2, 3 and 4 months from now. Heh.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 30, 2018 0:17:25 GMT -6
GFS with beautiful secondary development election day eve/election day. If it was colder we'd be in business. I can't wait to be saying this same exact thing 2, 3 and 4 months from now. Heh. Ya I was just looking at that and thinking if only it was early December and not early November.... Thats the exact pattern we need heading into winter. Clippers and southern lows galore |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 30, 2018 6:51:58 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen with another insightful update today... Mentions the potential for the PV to be disrupted heading into late November/early December. Obviously the post went into way more technical info, but it at least hints at the possibility of an early start to winter. For the pessimists...there is also talk of very mild temps in the absence of a weakened or dislodged PV throughout the winter. did you have dinner with him? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 30, 2018 6:57:51 GMT -6
Mild is not necessarily bad. We have to remember that some good...REALLY good winters have occurred with above normal not below temperatures.
As for the upcoming forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. I am siding with more of a Euro solution vs GFS for the ejection of the upper level energy from the southwest. The GFS QPF doesn't even agree with the track of its upper level shortwave...which appears to be too sheared out. I favor a more well formed Euro-like solution...and much more precip back into the colder air. That leads to a cloudy and very wet Wednesday night into Friday as the energy lifts northeast and the upper level divergence increases ahead of the shortwave...followed by deformation zone rain behind. It would be a beautiful snow system...if only!
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 30, 2018 7:02:28 GMT -6
I know we mentioned the FV3 rolling out.
It's up on College of Dupage.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 30, 2018 8:20:08 GMT -6
Mild is not necessarily bad. We have to remember that some good...REALLY good winters have occurred with above normal not below temperatures. As for the upcoming forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. I am siding with more of a Euro solution vs GFS for the ejection of the upper level energy from the southwest. The GFS QPF doesn't even agree with the track of its upper level shortwave...which appears to be too sheared out. I favor a more well formed Euro-like solution...and much more precip back into the colder air. That leads to a cloudy and very wet Wednesday night into Friday as the energy lifts northeast and the upper level divergence increases ahead of the shortwave...followed by deformation zone rain behind. It would be a beautiful snow system...if only! "very wet Wednesday night" is about the most depressing weather-related thing I could've read on here this morning. Boo. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 30, 2018 8:47:01 GMT -6
Mild is not necessarily bad. We have to remember that some good...REALLY good winters have occurred with above normal not below temperatures. As for the upcoming forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. I am siding with more of a Euro solution vs GFS for the ejection of the upper level energy from the southwest. The GFS QPF doesn't even agree with the track of its upper level shortwave...which appears to be too sheared out. I favor a more well formed Euro-like solution...and much more precip back into the colder air. That leads to a cloudy and very wet Wednesday night into Friday as the energy lifts northeast and the upper level divergence increases ahead of the shortwave...followed by deformation zone rain behind. It would be a beautiful snow system...if only! "very wet Wednesday night" is about the most depressing weather-related thing I could've read on here this morning. Boo. LATE wednesday night. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 30, 2018 9:00:13 GMT -6
"very wet Wednesday night" is about the most depressing weather-related thing I could've read on here this morning. Boo. LATE wednesday night. ohhhhhhh, NOW you have me intrigued! I had just about written-off the firepit and trick 'r treating with the boys from the bits and pieces of forecast news I had heard. Are you thinking we squeeze in some dry time? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 30, 2018 9:42:45 GMT -6
The Great Halloween Washout of 2018?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 30, 2018 11:27:35 GMT -6
Wednesday evening looks pretty wet, IMO.
You have to love the pattern that is developing so far this cool season...
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 30, 2018 11:30:31 GMT -6
Wednesday evening looks pretty wet, IMO. You have to love the pattern that is developing so far this cool season... As long as we don’t use it all up by December into March |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Oct 30, 2018 11:52:45 GMT -6
Wednesday evening looks pretty wet, IMO. You have to love the pattern that is developing so far this cool season... *insert sad face* |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Oct 30, 2018 12:38:53 GMT -6
Fall colors are really vivid right now. One of the better Falls in that regard recently
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 30, 2018 13:21:10 GMT -6
Looks like we might of just squeaked in our 80 degrees with 79 at the Airport as of 1:53PM could kiss it if we haven't already.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 30, 2018 13:31:55 GMT -6
Fall colors are really vivid right now. One of the better Falls in that regard recently Weather has been perfect...warm, sunny days and cool nights with relatively dry weather. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 30, 2018 13:51:50 GMT -6
Fall colors are really vivid right now. One of the better Falls in that regard recently Weather has been perfect...warm, sunny days and cool nights with relatively dry weather. Wife and I took a trip down to the Current River this past weekend for a short canoe float. The weather was perfect Saturday and the colors were incredible the whole drive. Very nice scenery at Johnson's Shut Ins too. I've gotta get down there more often. |
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Post by dschreib on Oct 30, 2018 14:17:36 GMT -6
Fall colors are really vivid right now. One of the better Falls in that regard recently I'm surprised Sunday didn't wipe more leaves out than it did. I guess they're still "green" enough...
I know the west side of the fences at the softball fields in Chesterfield were plastered with them. It was a lovely day for softball--especially with a revised schedule that included 8:30am game, followed by a 6 hour wait until our 3:30pm game. Fly balls to left-center ended up at SS. Pop-ups to 2B ended up out of play.
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 30, 2018 14:24:55 GMT -6
How much rain do we expect tonight?
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 30, 2018 14:29:08 GMT -6
We were fortunate to get our pontoon out yesterday am before the wind picked up today. Our cabin is winterized and now we can enjoy a bug free winter where the only humidity I'll enjoy is in the form of snow. The yellow jackets were still hanging around while we were working!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 30, 2018 15:27:50 GMT -6
How much rain do we expect tonight? Between .5 to 1.5" inches for most liking the near 1" mark myself. Wednesday night into Thursday could yield another inch or so maybe 1.5" especially along and south of I-44/I-70. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Oct 30, 2018 19:22:00 GMT -6
We were fortunate to get our pontoon out yesterday am before the wind picked up today. Our cabin is winterized and now we can enjoy a bug free winter where the only humidity I'll enjoy is in the form of snow. The yellow jackets were still hanging around while we were working! I walked around the yard today with a glass of wine & they must’ve been attracted to that. Lots of birds & butterflies. Beautiful day, tho, and still is pleasant this evening. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 30, 2018 23:45:26 GMT -6
A little concerned about the tiny bow echo working up out of the eastern Ozarks at 1245 am. The shear vectors were very marginally favorable for qlcs spin up when last I looked. So keeping an eye on that as I get ready for work.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 31, 2018 0:29:34 GMT -6
Radar pretty sad looking. Looks like it'll rain for about 10 minutes and that's it. Expected much more coverage than this.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 31, 2018 0:53:08 GMT -6
Light rain increasing to moderate here.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 31, 2018 0:55:44 GMT -6
Pouring now. No lightning or thunder. Stiff breeze, like we had all day.
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Post by REB on Oct 31, 2018 6:33:32 GMT -6
.58 inches of rain up to now.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 31, 2018 8:17:30 GMT -6
46 day euro looks snowy for most of the country (Union included).
Still liking the early start to the season idea.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 31, 2018 10:23:40 GMT -6
Man, even the Sunday-Monday system is displaying that secondary development stuff. So nice to see as opposed to the last few years where everything was just sheared to hell. No question if this pattern persists we will have a lot of fun this winter.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 31, 2018 11:17:01 GMT -6
Drizzly cloudy foggy day in Festusland! Went out and trimmed down the rose bushes but left one that still has red buds! Hope the kiddos come in force to devour the candy! Happy Halloweenie! November is upon us! And my tree in the front yard has really shedded yet!
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