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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2018 10:03:26 GMT -6
GFS is still too far SE, but continues the trend over the last several runs of backing it up to the west. I-44 points south still very much in play IMO. Just wish it would have come a bit further NW this run. There just isn't a lot there. Maybe a 1-3 inch type event is possible for southeast Missouri, but the thing gets swiped away instead of wrapping up. We'll have to wait until after Thanksgiving it appears. |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 9, 2018 10:05:18 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2018 10:05:55 GMT -6
GFS is still too far SE, but continues the trend over the last several runs of backing it up to the west. I-44 points south still very much in play IMO. Just wish it would have come a bit further NW this run. There just isn't a lot there. Maybe a 1-3 inch type event is possible for southeast Missouri, but the thing gets swiped away instead of wrapping up. We'll have to wait until after Thanksgiving it appears. I'd be more than happy with 1-3. Heck I would be happy with an inch. I'm not expecting some monster to wrap up...just saying things are looking better for a little snowfall down here. I've seen these setups back up into my area quite a few times over the years. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 9, 2018 10:16:39 GMT -6
It's drizzling flurries here. Itty bitty teenie weenie
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 9, 2018 10:19:15 GMT -6
GFS is still too far SE, but continues the trend over the last several runs of backing it up to the west. I-44 points south still very much in play IMO. Just wish it would have come a bit further NW this run. There just isn't a lot there. Maybe a 1-3 inch type event is possible for southeast Missouri, but the thing gets swiped away instead of wrapping up. We'll have to wait until after Thanksgiving it appears. Probably way after Thanksgiving, like closer to Christmas. Pattern looks to turn much warmer after next weeks cold. Probably stay for a while, I think December will be quite mild. |
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 9, 2018 10:29:21 GMT -6
There just isn't a lot there. Maybe a 1-3 inch type event is possible for southeast Missouri, but the thing gets swiped away instead of wrapping up. We'll have to wait until after Thanksgiving it appears. Probably way after Thanksgiving, like closer to Christmas. Pattern looks to turn much warmer after next weeks cold. Probably stay for a while, I think December will be quite mild. I hope you're wrong. But it seems to be looking that way, at least for the first part of the month, unfortunately. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2018 10:36:20 GMT -6
There are signs that some snow could begin to develop and spread into MO early on Monday. Then its like the models suffer from some convective feedback and erode it partially before organizing the system further south. I do not believe this will happen. I'm putting myself out there but I do believe there will be accumulating snow along and south of I-44 Monday. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I expect it to happen. Let this be my one forecast for the year lol.
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on Nov 9, 2018 10:37:16 GMT -6
Driving from STL to Lake of the Ozarks last night was not fun. Near white-out conditions south of Jeff City. Did make for pretty good snowball snow I suppose.
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 9, 2018 10:44:12 GMT -6
Probably way after Thanksgiving, like closer to Christmas. Pattern looks to turn much warmer after next weeks cold. Probably stay for a while, I think December will be quite mild. I hope you're wrong. But it seems to be looking that way, at least for the first part of the month, unfortunately. However, the upside to it being warmer the first part of the month vs the latter could mean a better shot at a white Christmas...maybe? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2018 10:50:38 GMT -6
Super GFS is a hit for southern half/third of viewing area Monday.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 9, 2018 10:51:56 GMT -6
The radar might be a little underdone because the main lift is below 800mb.
Yep, when they develop the convective snow bands/streamers should sorta line up northwest to southeast and may not show up well far from the radar. MZZU radar could be helpful.
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 9, 2018 10:57:14 GMT -6
First WWA of the season for STL now active.... probably one of the earliest in quite sometime I'd think.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 9, 2018 10:58:31 GMT -6
There are signs that some snow could begin to develop and spread into MO early on Monday. Then its like the models suffer from some convective feedback and erode it partially before organizing the system further south. I do not believe this will happen. I'm putting myself out there but I do believe there will be accumulating snow along and south of I-44 Monday. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I expect it to happen. Let this be my one forecast for the year lol. It's because there are two main pieces of vorticity. As the first one is moving into the Mississippi valley region. A second progressive positively tilted vorticity squashes the first one. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 9, 2018 10:59:49 GMT -6
The old "rush hour" advisory
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 9, 2018 11:00:18 GMT -6
Okay my weather friends, IF the snow happens on Monday what do you think the timing would be? Early Morning? Afternoon? Evening??
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 9, 2018 11:00:44 GMT -6
Check out the Natural Color satellite loops in a localized sector on the COD site for the fires in California. Kinda cool. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 9, 2018 11:07:35 GMT -6
lots of chatter abt monday...my gut tells me, this is a south of 44 system. while there is some nw trend, the main system should scoot by well to our south. conceptually im thinking flurries for the portions of metro that got accumulating snow and for the ppl to the se that did not get a measurable snow, they shld get a similar amt that the nw metro got...trace to an inch or two. that leaves my backyard with flurries. looking way way ahead...im going with a a chance of rain, ending as cold and maybe flurries or light snow scenario for thanksgiving as the weather looks to turn active again.
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Post by perryville on Nov 9, 2018 11:32:47 GMT -6
Super GFS is a hit for southern half/third of viewing area Monday. So you're saying there's a chance  . Had a few flurries west of Perryville last night. Ready for another winter of blogging multiple winter storms...2014/2015 seems like it was so long ago. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2018 11:50:36 GMT -6
Flurries in festus.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2018 12:29:15 GMT -6
Starting to see some bubbly looking returns on radar. Measured about 3/4" this morning on the truck...with compaction it was probably right around an inch total. Very pretty this morning! |
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Post by fojginmo on Nov 9, 2018 12:37:29 GMT -6
Not weather related but have to share some good news. My daughter has wanted to be a zookeeper since she knew what a keeper was. Yesterday this happened-"Four years of school and over 1000 hours of unpaid internships later, I'm so happy to say that today I accepted a full-time keeper job at Saint Louis Zoo's River's Edge." Her passion has taken us to Minot, ND (summer intern in hoofstock), Disney's Animal Kingdom, NOLA Aquarium & today she is saying goodbye to her 4-legged friends at the Henry Doorly Zoo in Omaha. I was checking out the weather for her......so kinda, sorta related.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2018 12:41:55 GMT -6
12z euro shows a fairly narrow 1-3 inch band for STL early next week.
Not bad for November, but not anything to get too excited about.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2018 12:49:01 GMT -6
12z euro shows a fairly narrow 1-3 inch band for STL early next week. Not bad for November, but not anything to get too excited about. Yea maybe not get too excited about, but it is November. And we have had 3 trash winters in a row so there's that. |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Nov 9, 2018 12:55:54 GMT -6
Thomas Hill Reservoir (Macon Mo) Great Hunting Weather Earliest Snow I've Ever Hunted! Beautiful Also🌨❄    |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 9, 2018 13:10:01 GMT -6
Im still mildly intrigued with Monday. Like WSC said, it dosent look like anything to exciting, but a band of 1-3" is possible in/around the metro. The euro has held strong to that idea for days and all the other models are coming around
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2018 13:16:09 GMT -6
I don't know how you couldn't be happy with 1-3 inches in November after what we've been through the past few years.
Also, I've always really wanted snow on the ground during rifle season. That would be a first for me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 9, 2018 13:27:28 GMT -6
I don't know how you couldn't be happy with 1-3 inches in November after what we've been through the past few years. Also, I've always really wanted snow on the ground during rifle season. That would be a first for me. Ill definitely be happy if it happens, just not going to get to worked up over it. The whole setup is still very fluid and could change one way or the other |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 9, 2018 13:40:38 GMT -6
After the last few winters, I'll be glad to see anything white anymore!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2018 14:06:11 GMT -6
There's still plenty of room for the next system to come further N...actually the upper pattern seems to support that, IMO. Models are awfully far SE with the SLP track given the primary shortwave hanging back by hundreds of miles. The GFS is especially bad with these kind of setups.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2018 14:16:57 GMT -6
Good returns on radar now out past KUIN...would think those would be dropping moderate/heavy bursts.
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. Had a few flurries west of Perryville last night. Ready for another winter of blogging multiple winter storms...2014/2015 seems like it was so long ago. 
