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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 14:10:25 GMT -6
Really thought I might get to hunt in the snow this eve but not looking like it.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 12, 2018 14:10:29 GMT -6
I so envy you right now Deerkiller! Stories indeed. Kinda bummed I will going down to the Lake of the Ozarks Wednesday-Saturday to hunt. You know..away from the snow. Best of luck on this fine day to hunt!
We have had 2-3" area wide today at the lake.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 14:14:37 GMT -6
Looks like I'm going to end up about one tier of county's too far South with my snow ban. I am eyeballing at least an inch now in Chesterfield and no doubt we lost more than an inch in the 1st several hours of not sticking.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 14:14:58 GMT -6
What are your thoughts on the Thursday system BRTN? I'm still skeptical but its hard to ignore what every model is showing TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. Good point. But there really isn't any WAA at any level ahead of the system that would modify the leftover airmass ahead of the cut off low. The cut off low itself looks to create alot of cold air in the mid and upper levels |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 14:15:31 GMT -6
Off Topic, but Marvel Comics Visionary Stan Lee has passed today at 95, survived by his only daughter.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 14:16:55 GMT -6
TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. Good point. But there really isn't any WAA at any level ahead of the system that would modify the leftover airmass ahead of the cut off low. The cut off low itself looks to create alot of cold air in the mid and upper levels Plus that northeasterly flow bring in dry air/low dewpoints would lead to some very efficient Evaporational Cooling. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 12, 2018 14:17:04 GMT -6
2.5 to 2.8” Depending on where you measure. Snow continues but simply replacing the melting snow beneath. Very beautiful November Snow!!!  I’m about to go back out hunting. I’ll post a pic of the higher elevation when I get back there. It’s likely got a lot more snow. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 14:18:36 GMT -6
For those To the immediate South East of Saint Louis… I expect to see re development behind the cold front roughly along highway 67 with a new band taking hold in the next hour or 2.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 12, 2018 14:22:16 GMT -6
What are your thoughts on the Thursday system BRTN? I'm still skeptical but its hard to ignore what every model is showing TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. Exactly. When you look at the forecast maps and you see 50 degree temperatures in Northern Missouri while this is supposed to be going on it makes you wonder |
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 12, 2018 14:26:01 GMT -6
We should see continued development of light to moderate snow through the evening, especially along and south of 44. So areas that have been left out so far should get there fair share later on I sure hope you're right!! I NEED snow! lol! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2018 14:26:34 GMT -6
Snow is still really struggling to accumulate but we've managed a dusting on grass and some elevated surfaces. Pretty snowfall but it would have been nice if temps were a bit lower or it was falling at night.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 12, 2018 14:28:15 GMT -6
What are your thoughts on the Thursday system BRTN? I'm still skeptical but its hard to ignore what every model is showing TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. What's usual to me is that the low which cuts off actually develops further as it moves east- usually they sit until they get caught up in the flow. There's is nothing seemingly "picking" this up.
Models all seem to agree to some extent that this will occur... am I'm guessing the interaction with the exiting jet which back builds towards the low helping this pull east and to further develop. The jet which subsequently increases on the eastern side should help this pull the low further north and east. It's a crap shoot the path of this... but certainly enough dynamics in play for someone to see a solid snow.
Last time I recall seeing something similar was in Kansas City around Halloween back in the mid/late 90s I believe.... think they had 8" in spots. Many power outages.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 14:28:40 GMT -6
I eyeball well... just measured 1.1" here in Chesterfield...intensity has backed off a bit... but still steady and solid light snow.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 12, 2018 14:31:49 GMT -6
Flurries/graupel... notable drop in temp.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 12, 2018 14:33:02 GMT -6
I sure hope redevelopment happens Down this way… Really don’t want to start the year 0 for 3 LOL
I am driving between Waterloo and Hecker and there is very light snow falling but no accumulations
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2018 14:33:05 GMT -6
TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. Good point. But there really isn't any WAA at any level ahead of the system that would modify the leftover airmass ahead of the cut off low. The cut off low itself looks to create alot of cold air in the mid and upper levels The cut off upper low is a game changer...if the cold core is strong enough, wet sloppy snow should be able to prevail over liquid or a mix. I'll take a closer look this evening. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 14:40:49 GMT -6
18 NAM still looking hot (In a good way) for Thursday.
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Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 14:42:13 GMT -6
Light snow in Waterloo. I hope the radar gets better or I'm not going to see more than a dusting.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 12, 2018 14:42:42 GMT -6
TBH I really haven't looked at much...but assuming we're dealing with a retreating arctic airmass I would say an all snow event is unlikely. What's usual to me is that the low which cuts off actually develops further as it moves east- usually they sit until they get caught up in the flow. There's is nothing seemingly "picking" this up.
Models all seem to agree to some extent that this will occur... am I'm guessing the interaction with the exiting jet which back builds towards the low helping this pull east and to further develop. The jet which subsequently increases on the eastern side should help this pull the low further north and east. It's a crap shot the path of this... but certainly enough dynamics in play for someone to see a solid snow.
Last time I recall seeing something similar was in Kansas City around Halloween back in the mid/late 90s I believe.... think they had 8" in spots. Many power outages.
You guys don't think the models are coming up with this "Thursday" solution because of the tropical development in the Atlantic? Maybe it's pushing things further west and that's why the models are making this "Thursday" storm coming in with a more western track?? Just something I was wondering... |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Nov 12, 2018 14:42:50 GMT -6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
231 PM CST MON NOV 12 2018
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST MON NOV 12 2018
SYSTEM TO EXIT REGION LATE TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, ONGOING SNOW
WILL PERSIST, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS, STILL INDICATING LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT,
SO COULD STILL SEE SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE, IN
THIS AREA WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THIS COMES TO AN END. KEPT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING TIL 9 PM. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, THEY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
ON TUESDAY, SUNNY SKIES RETURN TO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.
BYRD
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST MON NOV 12 2018
(TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)
VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE BI-STATE AREA. COMBINATION OF A
CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND SHOULD PROMOTE NEARLY IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE COULD ALSO BE JUST ENOUGH
SNOW COVER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI TO HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IF THESE LOCATIONS CAN MANAGE TO
KEEP A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SNOW COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS, MOST OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ITSELF IS COLD ENOUGH TO
YIELD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE. LEANED AT OR BELOW THE
COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, THIS IS STILL ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)
ALL EYES FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME PERIOD WILL BE ON
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AS
ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY, THESE CUTOFF LOWS ARE TYPICALLY VERY DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST IN TERMS OF BOTH TRACK AND TIMING. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, THERE IS HOWEVER MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL (3+ INCHES).
HOWEVER, EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WHEN THE CUTOFF LOW EJECTS OUT AND
ITS EVENTUAL TRACK COULD HAVE VERY LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER OUTPUT.
CURRENTLY, BASED ON THE TRACK OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM, IT APPEARS
THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT SEEING THE MOST SNOWFALL. WHILE THERE
ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DRY/COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS
ARCTIC AIR MASS AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SNOW
WHEREVER THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES THROUGH.
SPEAKING OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE 850-HPA
LOW TRACKS IS ROUGHLY FROM KMEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY LATE ON THURSDAY. PREVIOUS RESEARCH (BROWNE AND YOUNKIN -
1970) HAS SHOWN THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 90
NAUTICAL MILES (~105 MILES) TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK OF THE 850-HPA
LOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT IT
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THIS MAY BE A CASE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW IS JUST A BIT FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST (SAY CLOSER TO 120-130 MILES). THIS WOULD FAVOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS IN THE CWA ROUGHLY FROM KFAM TO JUST NORTHWEST OF
KSLO.
AN EARLY LOOK AT NWP SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLASSIC HEAVY SIGNATURE WITH
MAXIMUM LIFT CENTERED IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (-12 TO -
18C). ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED IN THIS SAME LAYER VERY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPES FOLD OVER
OR DECREASE WITH HEIGHT. BELOW THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE, THERE IS
A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND -5C FROM THE SURFACE TO NEAR 700 HPA
WHICH SUGGESTS DENDRITES WOULD TEND TO AGGREGATE. TO TOP
IT ALL OFF, WIND SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO
PREVENT FRACTURING OF SNOWFLAKES. IN SUMMATION, SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH (ABOVE 12:1) WHICH WOULD HELP TO INCREASE
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
(THURSDAY NIGHT - NEXT MONDAY)
BEHIND THIS NEXT SYSTEM, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS LIKELY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, THOSE HIGHS WOULD STILL BE SOME 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS THEN FAVORED BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S BEFORE A
SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURS NEXT MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RETURNING TO
THE BI-STATE AREA.
GOSSELIN
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 14:44:46 GMT -6
I smell Hamsters on Thursday with that Disco...
Which means despite being a mostly Daytime event, the large flake size and intensity would likely minagate most of the insolation effect and allow snow to accumulate rapidly. Compaction will be an issue however which is why a 3-5" type event is probably the best way to go about this with of course locally heavier amounts in some spots.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 12, 2018 14:48:41 GMT -6
Wow that's a pretty deep discussion from NWS/LSX FOR Wednesday night Thursday storm chance.
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Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 14:49:27 GMT -6
Off Topic, but Marvel Comics Visionary Stan Lee has passed today at 95, survived by his only daughter. I work for Marvel and it is a sad day indeed. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 12, 2018 14:57:10 GMT -6
Nice dry pea size flakes.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 14:58:50 GMT -6
Finally steady light snow in stg. Too bad there's not much left to the precip shield. Chris I hope you're right on the redevelopment!
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 12, 2018 14:59:08 GMT -6
Glad the snow came during the daytime so we can actually see it come down! Still pretty light, roads are wet but no heavy like everyone in Franklin county got!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 14:59:29 GMT -6
Thursday just coming into range of the 3KM NAM, and that ULL is a beauty Been awhile since I've seen that strong of a ULL in this part of the country in some time I think we'll do well with this and those that largely missed out on today could be more than rewarded for the extra couple of days wait.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 15:04:29 GMT -6
Light snow in Waterloo. I hope the radar gets better or I'm not going to see more than a dusting. It snowed at near heavy rates for over an hour here barely a dusting |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 15:06:54 GMT -6
I knew it was going to snow folks, you think I could actually sleep? Its beautiful outside. My dog Leo had a blast in it. Very nice for november no doubt. So no, there was no snoozing or losing here in u town.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 12, 2018 15:07:40 GMT -6
As to the question about the tropics...that is a huge yes. There is no doubt the tropical development is at least part of the reason the pattern is backing up.
This Thursday system reminds me of the Thanksgiving snow of 1980... November 27th...Developed in the GOM and lifted almost due north as I recall. It had more cold air on the backside...and was being fed by a deep diving jet that plunged down its backside.
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