|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 20:49:38 GMT -6
NAM is great if you live NW of STL. LOL Sounds about right. However I think the NAM is too far NW. Most guidance including the NWS suggests this will be a SE of 44/70 event. I can wishcast a little can't I? I've seen nearly nothing and it's annoying.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Nov 12, 2018 20:50:37 GMT -6
Brtn, I thought the same thing on the March 2008 storm that was the one that dumped 12” at lambert (in10 hours) and 2” out in Wentzville. Very similar in the fact that the snow developed and moved up from the south and southeast. It backed into the metro then slowly pulled away. Probably one of the hardest times I’ve ever seen snow fall . Very heavy wet snow. This would be very heavy and wet as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 20:53:27 GMT -6
NAM is great if you live NW of STL. LOL Sounds about right. However I think the NAM is too far NW. Most guidance including the NWS suggests this will be a SE of 44/70 event. I can wishcast a little can't I? I've seen nearly nothing and it's annoying. I really like where we sit right now, a little northwest is good as I expect some correction back south a tad as the runs go on so it's just wiggle room. Really having some decent vibes for the Metro east into much of southern Illinois. |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Nov 12, 2018 20:54:01 GMT -6
Brtn, I thought the same thing on the March 2008 storm that was the one that dumped 12” at lambert (in10 hours) and 2” out in Wentzville. Very similar in the fact that the snow developed and moved up from the south and southeast. It backed into the metro then slowly pulled away. Probably one of the hardest times I’ve ever seen snow fall . Very heavy wet snow. This would be very heavy and wet as well. I remember that storm. I was principal in Warrenton at that point and was the only school in Warren County that didn’t call off school that day. I had parents cursing me in the parking lot as they dropped their kids off. It was such a joy to wave goodbye to them at the end of the day when we didn’t even see a flake. 😂😂😂 |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2018 20:55:00 GMT -6
Brtn, I thought the same thing on the March 2008 storm that was the one that dumped 12” at lambert (in10 hours) and 2” out in Wentzville. Very similar in the fact that the snow developed and moved up from the south and southeast. It backed into the metro then slowly pulled away. Probably one of the hardest times I’ve ever seen snow fall . Very heavy wet snow. This would be very heavy and wet as well. Yeah if this system doesn't scoot off to the east as quick as models are showing(which I think is very possible, if not likely) power outages and tree damage could be a concern if heavy snow prevails. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 20:56:01 GMT -6
3KM already showing 6" up until sunrise Thursday, with snow likely continuing the rest of the day with another 2-4" outside of it's forecast window. Add it up and you're talking a solid storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 21:04:22 GMT -6
The Nam output is pretty good for the entire metro.
Given the nature of the system there would be mesobands.
But there is also broad large scale lift. There would definitely be a wide area of a solid snow minimum like 3".
The biggest thing in the way is lack of moisture.
The pwats are a joke.
The amount of qpf the models are printing is pretty good for how limited moisture is.
Because the actual lift is freaking enormous.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2018 21:06:36 GMT -6
Oh yeah, I found my notes from Nov. 2014 and the lowest reading here was 11*...so this cold spell isn't quite as impressive at this point. I also measured 2.3" of snowfall leading up to that record low which is about where we sit between the last few events but stand to surpass that in a couple days. All in all...still a very impressive and unusually cold start to the season!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 21:06:51 GMT -6
If this Thursday system happens, these Trowal bands could be some bad boys. They could dump 2-3”+ an hour with huge flakes
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 21:07:11 GMT -6
ICON still on as well...
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 21:16:29 GMT -6
A broad area of 3-5 inches with some very intense embedded jackpots would make everyone happy. Just some happier than others. I really hope this happens. The model porn we are being shown right now is quite impressive.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 21:24:52 GMT -6
A broad area of 3-5 inches with some very intense embedded jackpots would make everyone happy. Just some happier than others. I really hope this happens. The model porn we are being shown right now is quite impressive. The crazy thing is how soon this system could happen. If you believe the Hi res NAM we will start seeing snowfall Wednesday night. Tomorrow is Tuesday. If your the NWS and trends hold when do you seriously start considering issuing Winter Storm Watches |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 12, 2018 21:25:28 GMT -6
NAM is great if you live NW of STL. LOL Sounds about right. However I think the NAM is too far NW. Most guidance including the NWS suggests this will be a SE of 44/70 event. I can wishcast a little can't I? I've seen nearly nothing and it's annoying. Are you referring to Thursday's system? I honestly thought today was going to be a SE of 44, but I ended up with 1.5 inches. I really thing boundary layer temperatures are going to temper snowfall, if it does snow... in fact, I personally just don't see all that moisture wrapping all the way around that 500 mb low. Such an odd system. I don't think any models really have the path of it nailed down just yet. We're liable to see a completely different outcome than what today shows. Gut feeling here. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2018 21:31:18 GMT -6
Pretty good NW jog on the 00z NAM...h85 low tracks just S of Carbondale up towards Indy. That's almost textbook GYB for a 44/55/70 snowfall.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Nov 12, 2018 21:32:39 GMT -6
Big differences between nam and hi-res as far as precipitation goes. There is going to be some serious banding going on. I feel for the forecasters on this one.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 21:48:31 GMT -6
Gfs no go
Well..looking at wrong thing. Sorry. Lol
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 21:50:51 GMT -6
NAM is great if you live NW of STL. LOL Sounds about right. However I think the NAM is too far NW. Most guidance including the NWS suggests this will be a SE of 44/70 event. I can wishcast a little can't I? I've seen nearly nothing and it's annoying. Are you referring to Thursday's system? I honestly thought today was going to be a SE of 44, but I ended up with 1.5 inches. I really thing boundary layer temperatures are going to temper snowfall, if it does snow... in fact, I personally just don't see all that moisture wrapping all the way around that 500 mb low. Such an odd system. I don't think any models really have the path of it nailed down just yet. We're liable to see a completely different outcome than what today shows. Gut feeling here. Yes, I'm referring to Thursday! |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 21:53:32 GMT -6
Well no go anyway except illinois
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 12, 2018 21:53:53 GMT -6
0z GFS is just slightly further west, slightly...
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 21:55:15 GMT -6
So the GFS is a total swing and miss for the CWA? Really hoping the GFS is out to lunch and the Euro, NAM and GEM are correct. I'm really worried we'll see a Euro says "what storm" at 00Z.
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 21:56:48 GMT -6
Well no go anyway except illinois Hmm, I'll go take a look then. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 12, 2018 21:58:32 GMT -6
Bout half way in between Gfs and nam would be swell.
As has been mentioned, Gfs has moved a bit west. It's a step.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 12, 2018 22:00:09 GMT -6
Well no go anyway except illinois Maybe the GFS will jump aboard tomorrow... hopefully. Lol |
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 22:00:54 GMT -6
00z GFS looks good for those (SE of STL) that haven't seen anything but a dusting total so far BUT let's make everyone happy! I hate these systems that divide the CWA in half though it seems that's usually what we get in these parts lately.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2018 22:01:29 GMT -6
GEM still OK as well, but weaker/less QPF. Similar track to 12Z however.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2018 22:01:32 GMT -6
00z ggem looks solid.
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 22:03:20 GMT -6
The 00z GEM looks great for most everyone!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Nov 12, 2018 22:03:28 GMT -6
Canadian still hits is all
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 22:04:39 GMT -6
I'm I mistaken or does the GEM show it snowing for around 18 hours?
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Nov 12, 2018 22:10:13 GMT -6
heck, even the NAVGEM looks good  |
|
