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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 12, 2018 22:11:08 GMT -6
for the metro to get an accumulating snow, that bowling ball would have to turn on a dime I think. That's why I don't see much IMBY, along with the doubts I have about moisture. I don't see how it could turn like it has been progged. I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge gradient in snowfall totals something along the lines of 2 to 4 far southeast to almost nothing IMBY. Will be interesting to see what Chris has to say in the morning I guess.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2018 22:25:31 GMT -6
The trend with every system so far (including today’s) has been further north than the models predict. What that means for the Thursday storm is still unclear. Let’s hope the Euro holds course tonight
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 12, 2018 23:05:55 GMT -6
Deepening mid level lows usually trend NW.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 23:20:47 GMT -6
This thing is moisture starved.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 12, 2018 23:25:13 GMT -6
As of now I am going with 1-3" for the metro less over the NW 1/4th
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 0:14:16 GMT -6
Euro looks like a monster through 60
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 0:16:50 GMT -6
Euro looks like a monster through 60 Just doesn’t get quite North enough. Still a huge hit for STG over toward Sparta. Foot in spots. For reference euro puts out verbatim: StG: 11” Belleville 8” St. Louis 2” St Charles, Union: dusting |
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Post by RyanD on Nov 13, 2018 0:27:42 GMT -6
Euro looks like a monster through 60 Just doesn’t get quite North enough. Still a huge hit for STG over toward Sparta. Foot in spots. For reference euro puts out verbatim: StG: 11” Belleville 8” St. Louis 2” St Charles, Union: dusting Where are you viewing it? Weather.us? I don't think it has fully loaded on that site yet. What does it show for Waterloo? Similar to Belleville? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 0:38:08 GMT -6
The euro is just a tick further SE than it was on the 12z. St Charles would get an inch, downtown about 4”, Belleville 8” then near a foot by St. Gen.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 0:47:40 GMT -6
that tick hurt. lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 0:55:39 GMT -6
The big upper low is just a tad quicker to move east compared to the 12z run. I mean were talking less than 50 miles difference
Like coz mentioned though, these strengthening lows have a tendency to move more NW than the models predict
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 0:57:48 GMT -6
Yeah, and these closed lows are so fickle. We'll see what the models bring to the party tomorrow. Hopefully snow for all.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 1:02:51 GMT -6
Yeah, and these closed lows are so fickle. We'll see what the models bring to the party tomorrow. Hopefully snow for all. One thing you can say for a fact is this winter hasn't gotten off to a boring start |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 1:06:59 GMT -6
Just doesn’t get quite North enough. Still a huge hit for STG over toward Sparta. Foot in spots. For reference euro puts out verbatim: StG: 11” Belleville 8” St. Louis 2” St Charles, Union: dusting Where are you viewing it? Weather.us? I don't think it has fully loaded on that site yet. What does it show for Waterloo? Similar to Belleville? 6-8". The 2" line is through St. Charles county. SWIL would get a major snow event. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2018 1:24:16 GMT -6
Of my many concerns with the Wednesday night Thursday system… the fact that it is being pulled into a westerly flow and not sucked up by a digging short wave dropping in from the North that seems to argue for a more rapid West to East push versus a South to North.
These big wrapped up upper lows can wrap in some pretty prolific dry slots in the bands of snow become quite narrow.
And I still think temperatures are probably going to be warmer than modeled at this stage of the game closer to freezing. However the initial onset being at night should help considerably to get the 1st layer of snow on the ground needed to build accumulations.
The new European and to a certain extent the Canadian look more Realistic. It helps too that it's QPF placement is more in line with what you would expect with the GYB method Of heavy snow prediction.
I am already on my way in to work for the morning show I doubt I will put numbers on anything today, just an outlook area of possible significant accumulation.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 4:02:03 GMT -6
Latest as of 3:33am  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 4:47:19 GMT -6
Of my many concerns with the Wednesday night Thursday system… the fact that it is being pulled into a westerly flow and not sucked up by a digging short wave dropping in from the North that seems to argue for a more rapid West to East push versus a South to North. These big wrapped up upper lows can wrap in some pretty prolific dry slots in the bands of snow become quite narrow. And I still think temperatures are probably going to be warmer than modeled at this stage of the game closer to freezing. However the initial onset being at night should help considerably to get the 1st layer of snow on the ground needed to build accumulations. The new European and to a certain extent the Canadian look more Realistic. It helps too that it's QPF placement is more in line with what you would expect with the GYB method Of heavy snow prediction. I am already on my way in to work for the morning show I doubt I will put numbers on anything today, just an outlook area of possible significant accumulation. Latest from WPC shows little if any influence from the short wave. Keeps snow way S. |
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 13, 2018 5:22:25 GMT -6
Latest as of 3:33am That’s weird because my NWS zone forecast mentions snow but doesn’t mention anything about accumulations for this system. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 6:04:02 GMT -6
Just doesn’t get quite North enough. Still a huge hit for STG over toward Sparta. Foot in spots. For reference euro puts out verbatim: StG: 11” Belleville 8” St. Louis 2” St Charles, Union: dusting Where are you viewing it? Weather.us? I don't think it has fully loaded on that site yet. What does it show for Waterloo? Similar to Belleville? Wxbell. I’m doing a 7 day trial lol |
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 13, 2018 6:05:48 GMT -6
EPS & GEFS ensemble mean 850mb low tracks are way down there through about Memphis with axis of heaviest snow near the Ohio River.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 6:17:27 GMT -6
Well the 6z Euro is slightly west of the 0z, just noise really. But the orientation and western extent of the precip is different. It encompasses sightly more area to the west.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 6:25:11 GMT -6
The gradient across Franklin county is an inch or less in the NW, to 6+ in the se, lol. At Louis gets 6 or 7 this run,
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 13, 2018 6:43:13 GMT -6
I'm not going to commit to anything until it comes ashore and is sampled by upper air obs.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 7:50:47 GMT -6
I'm not sure what to hope for here. I want lots of snow. But I have a doctor appoint at 830 Thursday morning.
I am seeing an occasional lazy snowflake or two floating to the ground this morning
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Nov 13, 2018 7:55:31 GMT -6
Just did my official IMBY snow measurement and have 3.4”m on average (this is at my house, I don’t count my deer stand hill which always has a lot more). Last nights second round was very powdery in nature and there is some blowing snow around this morning.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Nov 13, 2018 8:00:07 GMT -6
I'm not sure what to hope for here. I want lots of snow. But I have a doctor appoint at 830 Thursday morning. I am seeing an occasional lazy snowflake or two floating to the ground this morning Snow. You always hope for snow. There is nothing wrong with you a little snow can't cure! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 8:18:31 GMT -6
I'm not going to commit to anything until it comes ashore and is sampled by upper air obs. The system is over Texas now. Unless you are being sarcastic |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Nov 13, 2018 8:22:47 GMT -6
Where are you viewing it? Weather.us? I don't think it has fully loaded on that site yet. What does it show for Waterloo? Similar to Belleville? 6-8". The 2" line is through St. Charles county. SWIL would get a major snow event. Haha, you asked, Ryan. Lucy is eagerly waiting on the sidelines seeing your eyes (and mine) light up at 6-8. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 13, 2018 8:23:06 GMT -6
Nam is great for the area
Even out here.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 8:23:28 GMT -6
The Nam has a larger system this run.
Lift is a little more broad.
Everyone will be happy with this run.
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