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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 8:35:29 GMT -6
The hires nam is showing an historic level event. I'll post the hires nam shortly.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 8:38:32 GMT -6
 Crazy |
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57 
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Nov 13, 2018 8:39:25 GMT -6
Brtn, I thought the same thing on the March 2008 storm that was the one that dumped 12” at lambert (in10 hours) and 2” out in Wentzville. Very similar in the fact that the snow developed and moved up from the south and southeast. It backed into the metro then slowly pulled away. Probably one of the hardest times I’ve ever seen snow fall . Very heavy wet snow. This would be very heavy and wet as well. I was in Hazelwood for a 3-day class when that happened. I've never saw anything like that before; the class dismissed around mid-day and the shuttle van that took us back to our hotel took nearly and hour and a half to go 2 miles. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 8:42:35 GMT -6
Brtn, I thought the same thing on the March 2008 storm that was the one that dumped 12” at lambert (in10 hours) and 2” out in Wentzville. Very similar in the fact that the snow developed and moved up from the south and southeast. It backed into the metro then slowly pulled away. Probably one of the hardest times I’ve ever seen snow fall . Very heavy wet snow. This would be very heavy and wet as well. I was in Hazelwood for a 3-day class when that happened. I've never saw anything like that before; the class dismissed around mid-day and the shuttle van that took us back to our hotel took nearly and hour and a half to go 2 miles. I was a student at Jeffco at the time, but didn't have classes on that particular day due to my schedule. I watched from Ste. Gen as the band just sat about 15 miles north of me all day. I was furious. Oh well, at least I got to see it on the ground the next day on campus. Didn't it get into the 70's just a couple days later? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 8:43:13 GMT -6
NAM is still on probation as far as im concerned. idk if i will ever respect it again. maybe over time it will redeem itself. it didnt do too badly with the last system so we shall see.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 8:44:56 GMT -6
Hi-res is so awesome. This is so fun!
In all seriousness, this thing could be into the area by late afternoon tomorrow now. Hopefully it slows down just a few hours. Temps are a touch cooler this run as well after onset of precip.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 8:45:20 GMT -6
We are within 36 hours of potential onset, so this is no longer a pipe dream. I really hope Lucy doesn't come out of hibernation because right now this looks phenomenal.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 13, 2018 8:47:03 GMT -6
The NAM has done much better than the GFS lately. The GFS was by far the worst model the last few storms
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 8:49:02 GMT -6
I have flurries outside my window right now at work.
This is day 4 of snow falling and it's November 13th AND we are tracking a potential major winter storm in about 36 hours. Amazing.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 8:56:44 GMT -6
Oh please, let Festus get in on this storm this time!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2018 9:06:37 GMT -6
The NAM has done much better than the GFS lately. The GFS was by far the worst model the last few storms Agreed...besides for its typical wet bias it's done surprisingly well so far this season. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 9:11:05 GMT -6
12z RGEM is dynamite as well...
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 9:17:43 GMT -6
One of my customers in Benton said they've got a notice Paducah issuing winter storm watch. Haven't seen it posted yet
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2018 9:18:45 GMT -6
GFS has not been so good... and not impressed with Fv3 either. I am inclined to rest with a comp of euro and nam.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 9:22:04 GMT -6
668 days since a Winter Storm watch has been issued. Does this break the streak?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 9:25:17 GMT -6
I'd like to see the GFS come in line a little better even if it is the worst model at the moment.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 13, 2018 9:25:42 GMT -6
The them only out through 48 hours about half way through the event. In lock step with the NAM. Maybe a hair NW |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 9:30:56 GMT -6
12z ICON in line with the NAM as well with the low sitting in the bootheel and the nice wraparound snow right through the metro.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 13, 2018 9:31:28 GMT -6
I'm not going to commit to anything until it comes ashore and is sampled by upper air obs.  The system is over Texas now. Unless you are being sarcastic Yep, it was joke...my humor is a little dry sometimes. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 9:48:41 GMT -6
Decent NW shift on the GFS. picking up on the potential amounts now too. This is getting real...
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 13, 2018 9:50:13 GMT -6
I don't remember a significant snowfall this early in my lifetime. I'm going to be 40 in May. Has it happened in my life?
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 9:51:57 GMT -6
Saw that as well. ICON and GFS show low at 45 in about the same position with the GFS jogging it a bit more easterly in 48 and a little bit faster exiting. Still looks really good.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 10:00:53 GMT -6
I don't remember a significant snowfall this early in my lifetime. I'm going to be 40 in May. Has it happened in my life? 7.6 inches recorded at Lambert on 11/26/75 is the record in November. Going back around this date for significant snow you have to go back to 1951. |
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 13, 2018 10:05:11 GMT -6
It also appears that later next week (including Thanksgiving) is not looking to be as mild now as previously thought. Is this correct?
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Post by let it snow11 on Nov 13, 2018 10:10:47 GMT -6
I don't remember a significant snowfall this early in my lifetime. I'm going to be 40 in May. Has it happened in my life? We had a (surprise) 4 inch snow on November 13, 1997 in my area (St. Francois county Mo). That's the earliest and most recent somewhat significant snow I can recall in memory. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 10:12:49 GMT -6
GFS starts precip about 6-8 hour later than NAM as well.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 10:12:57 GMT -6
It’ll warm up at some point to allow the Christmas lights to be put up! At some point!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 10:13:00 GMT -6
I don't remember a significant snowfall this early in my lifetime. I'm going to be 40 in May. Has it happened in my life? We had a (surprise) 4 inch snow on November 13, 1997 in my area (St. Francois county Mo). That's the earliest and most recent somewhat significant snow I can recall in memory. There's the one I was talking about last week! I remember about 5 in Ste. Gen. It was a beautiful snow. |
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 13, 2018 10:14:54 GMT -6
It’ll warm up at some point to allow the Christmas lights to be put up! At some point! Hoping it "warms up"....I don't think we've been in this position in 3+ years... |
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Post by jason0101 on Nov 13, 2018 10:20:29 GMT -6
I'll take a 20 mile shift NW for 200, Alex.
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