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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 10:28:41 GMT -6
That hi res NAM run is a thing of beauty
This has gone from model watching fantasy to looking like a major storm for part of the area.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 10:29:15 GMT -6
I don't remember a significant snowfall this early in my lifetime. I'm going to be 40 in May. Has it happened in my life? 7.6 inches recorded at Lambert on 11/26/75 is the record in November. Going back around this date for significant snow you have to go back to 1951. That's the one that came to mind for me. I was a senior in high school and it was the day before Thanksgiving. I was wondering if there was a way to sort through November snowfalls to see if there was a similar sized one any earlier. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 10:32:37 GMT -6
7.6 inches recorded at Lambert on 11/26/75 is the record in November. Going back around this date for significant snow you have to go back to 1951. That's the one that came to mind for me. I was a senior in high school and it was the day before Thanksgiving. I was wondering if there was a way to sort through November snowfalls to see if there was a similar sized one any earlier. I remember this snow. Was old Newsboys Day held the day before Thanksgiving back then? I distinctly remember a heavy snow on the old Newsboys day. I'm pretty sure this was the one. They didn't cancel school that day and the heavy snow was falling as we went to school. It continued to fall during the morning. I believe they called school off early but the buses never made it back to pick us up, so we all had to walk. I didn't care. It must have been about 1.3 miles home. I had a blast |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2018 10:33:12 GMT -6
I think the biggest questions now are the amount of moisture available and how long the upper low "pivots" NE before shifting off to the E. Gulf moisture doesn't appear to be abundant but this storm does pick up some Atlantic moisture as it's starting to move out thanks to the strong TROWAL feature. QPF isn't overly impressive, but there could be some mesobands that jackpot and the mesoscale models may be picking up on that.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 10:33:24 GMT -6
Okay, every model on board now.
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Post by REB on Nov 13, 2018 10:36:54 GMT -6
Should I change plans to drive from belleville to ballwin around 8:30 a.m. Thursday and back around 2:00 p.m.?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 10:40:28 GMT -6
Should I change plans to drive from belleville to ballwin around 8:30 a.m. Thursday and back around 2:00 p.m.? I would seriously consider it yes. If you can, I’d wait for tonight’s model runs just to be sure though |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 13, 2018 10:52:10 GMT -6
another amazing component to this is the fact that today’s high being around freezing and tonight’s low in the teens the ground should be pretty darn cold so we shouldn’t lose to much snow to melting... simply amazing for this time of year
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 10:53:02 GMT -6
This beginning Wednesday night is also a game changer. That will allow temps to be a few degrees colder at the surface and no snow lost to solar isolation
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 10:56:00 GMT -6
Sun is out!
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Nov 13, 2018 10:57:04 GMT -6
I'll take a 20 mile shift NW for 200, Alex. Amen! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 10:59:18 GMT -6
I'll take a 20 mile shift NW for 200, Alex. Amen! I can't support this. Especially after letting you guys have this last one that I worked so hard to bring north! EDIT: I see it says 20 miles. I thought you were asking for more. Still, though...  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 11:03:10 GMT -6
UKmet is a big hit as well for East of Mississippi. Fairly sharp cutoff for western areas at first glance.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 11:03:34 GMT -6
Just some more evidence as to how crazy this pattern is...There's currently a wind chill advisory for Brownsville, TX. Their highs should be around 80 this time of year and they threaten a 117 year record low tonight.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Nov 13, 2018 11:04:08 GMT -6
7.6 inches recorded at Lambert on 11/26/75 is the record in November. Going back around this date for significant snow you have to go back to 1951. That's the one that came to mind for me. I was a senior in high school and it was the day before Thanksgiving. I was wondering if there was a way to sort through November snowfalls to see if there was a similar sized one any earlier.
Daily records for the month of November
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 11:07:34 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see what SREF plumes show for 15z. 09z for BLV is fairly underwhelming. Mean of 2"
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Post by weatherj on Nov 13, 2018 11:10:32 GMT -6
I would love for everyone to cash in on this one. I've basically had trace amounts, although the grass got covered briefly from that intense snow burst last Friday evening. As someone stated, it's very tough (I believe Chris has said this as well) to get the whole CWA in on the robust/jackpot amounts. I would take another January 28, 2009 storm as far as totals spread out very evenly over the whole CWA. Amounts ranged from 6 on the lower end to 10 + on the higher end across the entire area. It's the amplified blockbusters that can really be the all or nothing to the extreme. Nov. 30th-Dec 1st 2006/GHD 2011 storms for example, 18 inches in the far NW CWA to zippo here as far as snow. Is it me, or does there need to be a flatter wave to produce the types of events that have a better chance at giving the whole area a decent snow? In any event, this has been quite an impressive stretch for November so far.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Nov 13, 2018 11:13:08 GMT -6
I'll take a 20 mile shift NW for 200, Alex. I'm not one of those guys that screams for watches and such, but when would those items be issued? I'm just trying to learn what the thought process would be. Would they wait until tomorrow afternoon? |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 13, 2018 11:15:17 GMT -6
We are within 36 hours of potential onset, so this is no longer a pipe dream. I really hope Lucy doesn't come out of hibernation because right now this looks phenomenal. Lucy is always chomping at the bit to pull the football at the last minute. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 11:15:37 GMT -6
I think we are to the point where it is likely going to snow. We just hope that it cuts off and spins for a while before kicking east. That's the difference between 2-4 inches (which is fine), or something much more special.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 13, 2018 11:16:14 GMT -6
I'll take a 20 mile shift NW for 200, Alex. I'm not one of those guys that screams for watches and such, but when would those items be issued? I'm just trying to learn what the thought process would be. Would they wait until tomorrow afternoon? I would think a watch would go up this evening for Illinois side at least. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 13, 2018 11:18:10 GMT -6
It would be nice if the Osage Beach area could squeeze out enough flakes to turn the ground white (Though it probably already is!). It kills me I am not going to be around to watch it happen. Some flakes falling while in the stand would be great!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 11:44:22 GMT -6
another amazing component to this is the fact that today’s high being around freezing and tonight’s low in the teens the ground should be pretty darn cold so we shouldn’t lose to much snow to melting... simply amazing for this time of year Was thinking the same thing while I listened to Angela Hutti talking about temps not breaking freezing today. The sun will warm the pavement...some. But that's a lot of cold to overcome. Especially with temps back to 20 or lower tonight |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 13, 2018 11:45:52 GMT -6
I still think wentzville may see 2 to 4 inches but the 6 plus will be more from st.peters eastward
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 13, 2018 12:02:15 GMT -6
It would be nice if the Osage Beach area could squeeze out enough flakes to turn the ground white (Though it probably already is!). It kills me I am not going to be around to watch it happen. Some flakes falling while in the stand would be great! Agreed! This is going to be hard to watch from central Mo, we need a 100mi shift NW!
We had 3"+ yesterday so there wil be snow on the ground for you.
You hunting private or public ground?
Good luck!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 12:09:57 GMT -6
That's the one that came to mind for me. I was a senior in high school and it was the day before Thanksgiving. I was wondering if there was a way to sort through November snowfalls to see if there was a similar sized one any earlier.
Daily records for the month of November
Thank you sir. 3.4 inches Nov 5, 1951 6.9 inches Nov 6, 1951 6.2 inches Nov 17, 1926 5.2 inches Nov 19, 1972 Those are our goals. 1951 must have been a heckuva start to winter. Although that early probably a lot of it melted pretty quick |
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Post by pbc12871 on Nov 13, 2018 12:11:46 GMT -6
Shrapnel..I hunt private land in Climax Springs. I love it down there!
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 13, 2018 12:14:27 GMT -6
 You could say we're off to a quick start here in Mid-MO... |
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Post by RyanD on Nov 13, 2018 12:15:01 GMT -6
Daily records for the month of November
Thank you sir. 3.4 inches Nov 5, 1951 6.9 inches Nov 6, 1951 6.2 inches Nov 17, 1926 5.2 inches Nov 19, 1972 Those are our goals. 1951 must have been a heckuva start to winter. Although that early probably a lot of it melted pretty quick You sure that first one isn't 1991? We had around 3" on Nov 5th 1991 with temps in the 20's. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 12:16:55 GMT -6
Euro has a warning level event for much of the metro this run
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