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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:23:15 GMT -6
I'm looking at some of these models and they show significant snowfall for 10 to 14 hours straight. That's crazy
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:23:40 GMT -6
12Z EURO is a thing of absolute epicness.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2018 12:23:55 GMT -6
Thank you sir. 3.4 inches Nov 5, 1951 6.9 inches Nov 6, 1951 6.2 inches Nov 17, 1926 5.2 inches Nov 19, 1972 Those are our goals. 1951 must have been a heckuva start to winter. Although that early probably a lot of it melted pretty quick You sure that first one isn't 1991? We had around 3" on Nov 5th 1991 with temps in the 20's. 1.6 inches on Nov 7, 1991 perhaps?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 12:25:13 GMT -6
Even the western and NW burbs get a solid 3-4" on the euro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 12:25:54 GMT -6
12Z EURO is a thing of absolute epicness. Im going to need to make sure I have a good snow shovel over here in Belleville |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:26:32 GMT -6
Metro east just gets hammered from 43 hours to 60 hours on the EURO almost non-stop.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:26:34 GMT -6
12Z EURO is a thing of absolute epicness. the euro is the one that goes for 14 hours straight with significant snow over much of the east side |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Nov 13, 2018 12:26:50 GMT -6
12Z EURO is a thing of absolute epicness. Im going to need to make sure I have a good snow shovel over here in Belleville What is it showing for Belleville? Totals? |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 13, 2018 12:27:30 GMT -6
When will we know for sure? That low can head east, and we'll all be bummed!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:28:08 GMT -6
12Z EURO is a thing of absolute epicness. Im going to need to make sure I have a good snow shovel over here in Belleville If something like the Euro happened it would be the biggest storm in the metro/metro east since January 2014. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 13, 2018 12:28:37 GMT -6
fwiw, with the consistency and ever gradual nw trend, i concede to others on here and am on board for accumulating snow...even imby, ongoing during morning rush. still thinking higher amts to my se. but, imby, im planning on something like 1 to 3. timing cld be an issue if this thing kicks in overnight wednesday, tying up rush hour. snow shld taper during the afternoon, or perhaps end as drizzle im thinking. whatever the case a gradual end from west to east seems realistic. we should pop up over freezing where i live if snow tapers on time....something like 34.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 12:29:29 GMT -6
Im going to need to make sure I have a good snow shovel over here in Belleville What is it showing for Belleville? Totals? Using the Kuchera Method it has 8" |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:29:54 GMT -6
Im going to need to make sure I have a good snow shovel over here in Belleville What is it showing for Belleville? Totals? Up to 6.5" to 51 hours where the accumulation maps currently end. but it's still falling moderate to heavily through 60 hour. Probably gonna be 10" easy if not more. |
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Post by jason0101 on Nov 13, 2018 12:30:07 GMT -6
Have a feeling some more northwest shift is coming..maybe about 40 miles with that heavy band before it is settled. Thats the trend this year.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 13, 2018 12:33:39 GMT -6
Sounds like Euro clocks this area of S central IL good too. That would be the nice run for nearly everyone.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:35:05 GMT -6
Yep close to 10" for Belleville, Between 9-10"
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 13, 2018 12:36:39 GMT -6
I have not had time to look as closely as I would like yet... that will come when I finally get home. But what I have seen is in almost imuncomfortably good agreement. The kind that makes you a little nervous because we live in STL and that is a major anomoly. I have concerns about a far flinging dry slot pinching off the trowal...but if that doesnt happen...it is quite possible the raw qpf numbers may be underdone...just throwing that out.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:38:50 GMT -6
Have to give the EURO something here, it's been showing between 8 to 10" for Belleville the past 3 runs.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 13, 2018 12:38:50 GMT -6
The whole key is where that thin band sets up. As Chris alluded to there's a heck of a dry slot to the east of that during over half of the event. Doesn't show up on all the models but it does on some
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:39:57 GMT -6
I have not had time to look as closely as I would like yet... that will come when I finally get home. But what I have seen is in almost imuncomfortably good agreement. The kind that makes you a little nervous because we live in STL and that is a major anomoly. I have concerns about a far flinging dry slot pinching off the trowal...but if that doesnt happen...it is quite possible the raw qpf numbers may be underdone...just throwing that out. Would be history in the making if it all comes to fruition... The kind of thing they put in Meteorology textbooks and studies. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 13, 2018 12:40:54 GMT -6
Where do I go to view the Euro???
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:41:34 GMT -6
Where do I go to view the Euro???
direct link to the EURO
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 12:43:18 GMT -6
The Euro was probably the best model with this last system wasn't it? At least once we got within 72 hours. Before it was showing a big def. zone but if I recall correctly it damn near nailed the more substantial snow totals being along and NORTH of 44 when all others were showing south.
The excitement is building for me big time. Crazy how good the model agreement is.
Is there anything that could make this thing slide east at this point?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:45:20 GMT -6
NMM is so far the only model that's a swing and a miss for us, ARW2 is onboard however. ARW still waiting to come in. WRF onboard as well.
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 13, 2018 12:45:23 GMT -6
Where do I go to view the Euro???
direct link to the EURO
Thanks!! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2018 12:46:00 GMT -6
I don't know why but it just doesn't quite feel real yet. Usually it does by this point. I think because it is such a strange and remarkable setup. That and Lucy has laughed in my face many times over the years!
As soon as 30 hours out now...let's bring this thing home.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:49:05 GMT -6
JMA (Japanese Model) which is notoriously pessimistic about any exciting weather coming to St. Louis is also more onboard now as well with it's 12Z run, but still weaker and east then the consenus however close enough to bring Advisory level snows mainly east of the Mississippi.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:51:57 GMT -6
Regular ARW is a miss, but close enough to graze the far southeastern counties rather then a total miss like the NMM.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2018 12:53:13 GMT -6
The Euro was probably the best model with this last system wasn't it? At least once we got within 72 hours. Before it was showing a big def. zone but if I recall correctly it damn near nailed the more substantial snow totals being along and NORTH of 44 when all others were showing south. The excitement is building for me big time. Crazy how good the model agreement is. Is there anything that could make this thing slide east at this point? The euro and NAM both did very well with the system yesterday. The NAM did very well within its realibility window of 48 hours |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 13, 2018 12:53:22 GMT -6
"Long Range" RAP to 39 hours is sold as well with action starting around Midnight Wednesday night.
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