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Post by cozpregon on Nov 27, 2018 22:22:34 GMT -6
Like the flatter look on the GFS with the second system
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 27, 2018 22:22:34 GMT -6
Well the gfs takes the cutter off the board for Monday. Tries to get something going for us but it doesn't get its act together until it's east. Still think there's a chance of something early next week.
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Post by jmg378s on Nov 27, 2018 22:54:59 GMT -6
May have to consider some strong or even severe storms for the southern part of the area Friday/Saturday with the GFS & Euro getting 60* dewpoints into MO and some steeper lapse rates associated with the cold air aloft. May need the system to slow down a little for better chances, but something to keep an eye out for.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2018 2:34:20 GMT -6
The euro has some big time cold air building across most of Canada, especially central, towards the end of its run with an active southern storm track
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 28, 2018 5:25:53 GMT -6
Like the gfs for the 7th-8th of Dec timeframe.
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Post by bororug on Nov 28, 2018 6:45:23 GMT -6
Sunrise out here in Festus is absolutely awesome right now.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 28, 2018 7:03:23 GMT -6
Check out the blow up of grease on the radar this morning on the loop right now. I have never seen so many grease
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 28, 2018 7:08:47 GMT -6
All signals would certainly point to a potential major storm middle to late next week. We have a window there with the teleconnections so I hope we can capitalize.
Teleconnection forecasts show the EPO going strongly positive after that, but its hard to put much stock into those forecasts given how even they have flip-flopped on a day to day basis. Doesn't really match with the tremendous cold we are seeing build in Canada next week.
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Post by maddogchief on Nov 28, 2018 7:10:53 GMT -6
It’s a brisk one this morning.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 28, 2018 7:28:41 GMT -6
Check out the blow up of grease on the radar this morning on the loop right now. I have never seen so many grease I hate when grease gets on the radar it always gets my screen on my phone smeary and never comes clean for awhile. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 28, 2018 7:31:39 GMT -6
Geese lol
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Post by John G -west belleville on Nov 28, 2018 7:32:01 GMT -6
It’s a brisk one this morning. Feels better than the last two mornings. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Nov 28, 2018 7:41:21 GMT -6
Why is it that there are always more Geese flying over your location than anywhere else? ...Sorry I couldn't resist.  |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 28, 2018 7:43:10 GMT -6
Ha ha lol. Clearly we have about 10 inches of geese. I would say that we have a full blown glizzard
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 28, 2018 8:24:29 GMT -6
Best description I've heard of autocorrect - it's a drunk spelling Nazi. |
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 28, 2018 8:28:54 GMT -6
I would much rather it be mild the first half of December and then cold during Xmas, but I keep hearing predictions of the exact opposite  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 28, 2018 9:14:48 GMT -6
Way undercutting MOS values for Thursday and Friday as the pattern/profiles strongly suggest the idea of low clouds/stratus and fog locking in... and this time of year that can be REALLY hard to move out.
I'm going cloudy with drizzle for Thursday...and 45. I nudge it up a bit Friday to 52...but that may not happen until evening. The warm front finally punches through the cold air late Friday night with rising temperatures. I just couldn't go as high as 69....but it is possible...especially if the cold front trends slower. Speaking of slower...if the front slows by a couple more hours severe weather will become a real concern up our way. Otherwise...as it stands right now.. I think the threat is more likely along the Ohio River.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 28, 2018 9:16:30 GMT -6
I am also somewhat interested in the Monday/Monday night system. All indicators are that the cold front will settle south of STL and what is likely to be a modest shortwave will eject in the southwest flow. This looks like a good set-up for an over-running event...with a mix of rain/sleet/snow (or maybe zr?) changing to light snow. It doesn't look like a lot...but some light accumulations cannot be ruled out.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 28, 2018 9:42:14 GMT -6
I think December could be very transient with cold and warmer airmasses with no particular one locking in hardcore. That would tend to yield quite a storm at some point with just the right timing for us. Long term forecasting is definitely a challenge. Chris, brtn, Snowman99, and quite a few others do very well in that camp, IMO. Frivs and bwg do well at short term/sneaky events.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2018 10:20:29 GMT -6
12z gfs continues to spin something up Monday night...
Gem, not so much.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2018 10:30:00 GMT -6
Monday's potential event looks like one of those that models don't pick up on well until the last minute.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 28, 2018 10:36:53 GMT -6
GFS trying to become a bit more organized with Monday. We need a stronger push from the northern branch in the wake of the Saturday storm to keep it from cutting. Nam is more "downstream" with the N branch at the end of its run but that's way out there for the NAM.
Teleconnections long term are improved from yesterday in terms of the EPO. NAO looks to go a bit more strongly positive but EPO tanks pretty hard. As some of you folks have mentioned the EPO appears to have a stronger control on our weather here, especially in terms of cold outbreaks, and I think we are seeing the effects of this in the medium and long range.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2018 10:47:35 GMT -6
GFS trying to become a bit more organized with Monday. We need a stronger push from the northern branch in the wake of the Saturday storm to keep it from cutting. Nam is more "downstream" with the N branch at the end of its run but that's way out there for the NAM. Teleconnections long term are improved from yesterday in terms of the EPO. NAO looks to go a bit more strongly positive but EPO tanks pretty hard. As some of you folks have mentioned the EPO appears to have a stronger control on our weather here, especially in terms of cold outbreaks, and I think we are seeing the effects of this in the medium and long range. A -EPO and a +NAO should keep things from cutting so hard if I remember correctly. Seems like an Ohio Valley or Mid Atlantic setup to me. Maybe even some overrunning potential. |
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Nov 28, 2018 11:06:46 GMT -6
Are things looking dry by Saturday morning? I am running the Santa Dash 5K in St. Charles.
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 28, 2018 11:20:03 GMT -6
Are things looking dry by Saturday morning? I am running the Santa Dash 5K in St. Charles. Should be out of here by about sunrise. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2018 12:37:13 GMT -6
A strong split of the PV looks to be in the cards for the 8th-13th of December which could yield some fun for Christmas into the first 2 weeks of January. Things could get rocking and rolling again after a 3-4 week period of more or less zonal flow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2018 12:39:35 GMT -6
ICON holds Friday Night's system enough and allows some storms to develop along the cold front Saturday afternoon. I'd say at least a slight risk of severe storms mainly damaging winds and tornadoes should be warranted along and southeast of I-44/I-55 including the St. Louis metro but best odds in southeast Missouri into Illinois.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 28, 2018 13:00:12 GMT -6
I thought you said a couple days ago December was going to be warm and wet (no winter weather) with a pacific based wind coming from a Kelvin wave in Japan or Korea or something like that?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2018 13:17:52 GMT -6
I thought you said a couple days ago December was going to be warm and wet (no winter weather) with a pacific based wind coming from a Kelvin wave in Japan or Korea or something like that? Didn't read the last sentence of the post before last? I said after a 3-4 week period of near zonal flow. December will still end up above normal but a PV split would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast but not till the last several days of December and there's still no guarantee of it as it hasn't happened yet. Otherwise there's nothing to lock cold air here for more than a couple days at a time with milder shots inbetween lasting for a few days each. That said models seem to be picking up on a huge deep trough over east Asia/Japan area around the 8th-11th which could mean a solid 3-4 day intense cold spell around the 18-21st. Point is I'm not calling for a Winter cancelled or anything to that degree, just affirming that the overall pattern is taking a break and reloading with the 'Urary' months being more or less hard core winter which has been said by most all along. Needless to say the signals are mixed and variance is key rather than a locking pattern. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2018 13:24:58 GMT -6
A variable, transient pattern seems to fit the bill for much of December as it stands right now. Models have been showing troffing developing in the EPAC/GoA next week which would favor a zonal flow with seasonal temps more or less. This should give the source region a chance to reload which is good timing for the core of the season, IMO.
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