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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2018 13:30:58 GMT -6
12Z EURO picking up on a big snow storm for the bi-state area on the 7th-8th.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 28, 2018 13:56:06 GMT -6
I like the 12z EURO for day 8-9 if only it were 2-3 days away!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 28, 2018 13:56:18 GMT -6
Where does this November rank overall temp. wise compared to averages/historical lows?
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Post by landscaper on Nov 28, 2018 14:21:54 GMT -6
It’s definitely below average by a decent amount, I’ve seen a few posts on Twitter but I’m not sure how many degrees below normal we will end up
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2018 14:59:12 GMT -6
It’s definitely below average by a decent amount, I’ve seen a few posts on Twitter but I’m not sure how many degrees below normal we will end up
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 28, 2018 15:31:31 GMT -6
without going back through posts, my recollection is relative good agreement amongst different posters and relative consistency from individual posters on the upcoming month of december. i think the take home message is best summed up by brtn...a transient pattern. that is not stating no winter wx...these kinds of patterns will be all about timing but a pattern that relies on timing doesnt favor probabilities for snow although it doesnt rule it out either. i do agree with bwg that sometime in proximity to the holidays we may see a transition to a more consistent cold pattern and while storminess may slow down by then, we shld settle into a pattern that may give us better chances of snow than the 2 weeks prior to Christmas.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2018 15:44:30 GMT -6
Last check KSTL was running -8.8*F for the month so far.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 28, 2018 16:03:08 GMT -6
A parade of storms are out in the Pacific coming in! Will they be rain or will they be clear frozen or white pretty snow? Or will they come to MO at all? Wait and see!
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Post by weatherj on Nov 28, 2018 16:53:50 GMT -6
There have been 20 out of the 27 days in November that have been below avg. The majority of those were well below avg. KSTL is running -8.6* below normal and today's departure has not been figured in yet. It will warm up by Friday to a bit abv avg, but we should still hold on to the -8* territory. It's a good thing Saturday is December 1st, if the slower cold front verifies it could get well into the 60's.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 28, 2018 17:06:47 GMT -6
There have been 20 out of the 27 days in November that have been below avg. The majority of those were well below avg. KSTL is running -8.6* below normal and today's departure has not been figured in yet. It will warm up by Friday to a bit abv avg, but we should still hold on to the -8* territory. It's a good thing Saturday is December 1st, if the slower cold front verifies it could get well into the 60's. I love the fact that you used average, but please stay away from normal. I would bet there are perhaps three or four average days per decade. That might even be stretching it. There is nothing normal about something that rarely occurs |
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Post by weatherj on Nov 28, 2018 17:17:58 GMT -6
ok.......
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 28, 2018 17:19:57 GMT -6
There have been 20 out of the 27 days in November that have been below avg. The majority of those were well below avg. KSTL is running -8.6* below normal and today's departure has not been figured in yet. It will warm up by Friday to a bit abv avg, but we should still hold on to the -8* territory. It's a good thing Saturday is December 1st, if the slower cold front verifies it could get well into the 60's. I love the fact that you used average, but please stay away from normal. I would bet there are perhaps three or four average days per decade. That might even be stretching it. There is nothing normal about something that rarely occurs The scientifically correct term is... in fact...NORMAL...and not average...this according the the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/GCDS_1.phpAverages: The mean of monthly values of climatological data (which may be monthly means or totals) over any specified period of time (no specific definition). Period averages: Averages of climatological data computed for any period of at least ten years starting on 1 January of a year ending with the digit 1 (Technical Regulations). Normals: Period averages computed for a uniform and relatively long period comprising at least three consecutive ten-year periods (Technical Regulations). Climatological standard normals: Averages of climatological data computed for the following consecutive periods of 30 years: 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2010, 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2020, etc. (Technical Regulations). |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2018 17:35:40 GMT -6
Guess someone is writing a letter...
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Post by guyfromhecker on Nov 28, 2018 17:36:38 GMT -6
I love the fact that you used average, but please stay away from normal. I would bet there are perhaps three or four average days per decade. That might even be stretching it. There is nothing normal about something that rarely occurs The scientifically correct term is... in fact...NORMAL...and not average...this according the the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/GCDS_1.phpAverages: The mean of monthly values of climatological data (which may be monthly means or totals) over any specified period of time (no specific definition). Period averages: Averages of climatological data computed for any period of at least ten years starting on 1 January of a year ending with the digit 1 (Technical Regulations). Normals: Period averages computed for a uniform and relatively long period comprising at least three consecutive ten-year periods (Technical Regulations). Climatological standard normals: Averages of climatological data computed for the following consecutive periods of 30 years: 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2010, 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2020, etc. (Technical Regulations). Leave it to the Nerds to redefine a word. I could understand a range of temperature being considered normal for a particular day, but not a specific temperature. Just my opinion. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2018 18:17:07 GMT -6
Chris, if today's temps are any indication, your call on slashing temps the next couple days should work out well. Still in the 20s here.
The staying power of this dusting has been incredible...I think we've lost more to sublimation than melting!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 28, 2018 18:31:49 GMT -6
Chris, if today's temps are any indication, your call on slashing temps the next couple days should work out well. Still in the 20s here. The staying power of this dusting has been incredible...I think we've lost more to sublimation than melting! I was noticing the same thing about the staying power. Even though I only got a 1/2" I noticed there's still snow in the grass in the open - not like you would think on the north side of a hill or building. Now it has been helped by only part of a day of sunshine yesterday since it fell and temps sticking below freezing much of the time. I doubt it would officially qualify as snow cover but just that it is still there is noteworthy |
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 28, 2018 19:08:50 GMT -6
Maybe next storm we'll have some long lasting snow on the ground, it'll be Dec soon!
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Post by maddogchief on Nov 28, 2018 19:14:04 GMT -6
Chris, if today's temps are any indication, your call on slashing temps the next couple days should work out well. Still in the 20s here. The staying power of this dusting has been incredible...I think we've lost more to sublimation than melting! Heck we just saw 6-8” disappear quicker than this dusting. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 28, 2018 20:38:44 GMT -6
I love the fact that you used average, but please stay away from normal. I would bet there are perhaps three or four average days per decade. That might even be stretching it. There is nothing normal about something that rarely occurs The scientifically correct term is... in fact...NORMAL...and not average...this according the the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/GCDS_1.phpAverages: The mean of monthly values of climatological data (which may be monthly means or totals) over any specified period of time (no specific definition). Period averages: Averages of climatological data computed for any period of at least ten years starting on 1 January of a year ending with the digit 1 (Technical Regulations). Normals: Period averages computed for a uniform and relatively long period comprising at least three consecutive ten-year periods (Technical Regulations). Climatological standard normals: Averages of climatological data computed for the following consecutive periods of 30 years: 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2010, 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2020, etc. (Technical Regulations). yeah, and now that you mentioned it, I thought we had this conversation a few years ago; or I am experiencing some kind of deja vu on something else. Can you please explain in more detail the difference between 'Normals' and 'Climatological standard normals'? I ask that because I thought our normals were calculated by averaging the last 3 complete decades - ie January 1, 1981 to December 31, 2010. When would those be different? Feel free to answer whenever is convenient. |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 28, 2018 21:13:57 GMT -6
We have indeed have conversations about Normal. I've corrected family members recently on the use of average and then I get the eye-rolling. I also had to re-set expectations with my kids after my mother-in-law decided to tell the kids it was going to snow Sunday night and they might not have school on Monday. I had to be the grinch when I told them they'll have school the rest of November. Thanks, ma.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Nov 28, 2018 21:29:47 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2018 21:48:50 GMT -6
Oh sure, now that there is no blizzard warning it can actually snow on the lake..
Looks awesome regardless.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2018 22:05:30 GMT -6
Its officially winter...
00z gfs has lost the Monday storm and the 00z ggem has found it.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 28, 2018 22:24:53 GMT -6
Its officially winter... 00z gfs has lost the Monday storm and the 00z ggem has found it. The GGEM's track is nice. Need to have the temps to make it fun. Unless you're in Chicago. Oh wait. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2018 22:29:04 GMT -6
Its officially winter... 00z gfs has lost the Monday storm and the 00z ggem has found it. The GGEM's track is nice. Need to have the temps to make it fun. Unless you're in Chicago. Oh wait. Lol, looks like you could be along and north of 70 and do better than Chicago. 850 temps are below zero and surface temps are around 33-34. Any moderate intensity precipitation should easily be snow. The real question is if the euro finally shows anything. Starting to get close enough to where it needs to at least be trending toward the other models or it's not happening. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2018 22:56:12 GMT -6
00z Icon is almost a perfect track for STL to Chicago...
Just a hair too warm, but very close to a significant snow for the metro.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 28, 2018 23:01:15 GMT -6
00z Icon is almost a perfect track for STL to Chicago... Just a hair too warm, but very close to a significant snow for the metro. Ya I was just looking at that. I really like that setup! Agree it's just a bit warm. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2018 0:59:50 GMT -6
Euro has a weak piddly a$$ system Monday, looks like a light mix to lt snow as Chris mentioned. Still has a bigger system late next week/weekend.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2018 3:13:11 GMT -6
Well, after looking at a few things, here's what I see coming up in December. The first week to 10 days will likely be colder than normal..except for this Saturday which will be quite mild. We may have 2 snow chances, one next Monday, one near or on next weekend. The one next weekend looking like the better shot. After the 10th it looks to get pretty mild for maybe a couple weeks. It can still snow in mild patterns, but I would say anything that falls would be rain during that time. So as we head toward Christmas, unfortunately I see warm and maybe wet. Sometime around Christmas to New Years, we should go back to a colder somewhat active pattern, which should...should take us through the rest of the winter. Could be some hard core stuff in there later in January. Unless next week brings us a lot of snow, I would say December ends up below normal, and near to above in the temperature department. And by a lot I mean like 5 inches..normal I think is 4.7 or something for the month.
I stated a few weeks ago that December would probably be pretty warm. It might not be as warm for as long as I originally thought. At least I hope not. November got us all worked up, hope it continues until March.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 29, 2018 6:14:01 GMT -6
How are we looking for the rain and severe threat Friday night into Saturday morning/afternoon??
Thank you
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