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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2018 6:26:55 GMT -6
Severe threat is very minimal here. Heavy rain threat is definitely there. Could see 1-2 inches maybe more in spots.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 29, 2018 6:27:10 GMT -6
How are we looking for the rain and severe threat Friday night into Saturday morning/afternoon?? Thank you Pretty much on track...gonna be a wet one. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the IL side for Saturday AM. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2018 7:18:04 GMT -6
How are we looking for the rain and severe threat Friday night into Saturday morning/afternoon?? Thank you Pretty much on track...gonna be a wet one. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the IL side for Saturday AM. Only negative (besides time of day) would be the lack of strong surface convergence along the front. We really appear to lack a strong trigger. That's not to say it cannot happen... but it is a limiting factor. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2018 7:42:03 GMT -6
At this point, the Euro has far and away been the best model in terms of accuracy and consistency. Seems to be one step ahead of the others, so I would put my stock into it for the foreseeable future.
All models still show a big system late next week. The question will be with the track as always, but also how much of the receding arctic airmass is still available. Our snowy cutoff low two weeks ago was able to tap in to the very last of the arctic airmass as it was retreating.
Sometimes these setups also include a reinforcing/backdoor shot of shallow arctic air and we all know what that can lead to.
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Post by mosue56 on Nov 29, 2018 7:56:36 GMT -6
STGOutdoors, bring it on to this snow bunny!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 29, 2018 10:29:43 GMT -6
Models seem to be now picking up on a band of storms along the front Saturday Afternoon which could be severe mainly along and east of the Mississippi into Illinois with more low topped type supercells with hail and tornado potential. The negative tilt of the tough as it passes can't be ignored. While this won't be a major outbreak for us, still thinking at least a few tornadoes, damaging wind and hail reports are possible up I-44/I-55 and points east. A slower, farther west low track starting to be presented also could allow temps to surge well into the 70s for the metro into southern Illinois. Depending on how much sun we get a 75-80 degree high isn't out of the question also dewpoints in the low 60s are quite respectable this time of the year. Gonna feel a tad muggy out but nothing oppressive, but definitely a "spring-like" feel for sure. Models are out to lunch next week with the pattern so no locking into any one solution at least until Friday/Saturday's storm system passes.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 29, 2018 10:50:34 GMT -6
Man it just figures that this storm coming in Friday and Saturday had to be all rain.
Would of been a ton of snow if it came in when it was colder earlier this week. Ugh....
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2018 11:18:11 GMT -6
Models continue to show the winter storm late next week. GFS and GEM are further south but still has a substantial storm which will likely trend north. Its a long way off but to me it looks like the classic overrunning setup. Those for whatever reason tend to be more well forecast at long range.
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Post by weatherj on Nov 29, 2018 12:26:43 GMT -6
Man it just figures that this storm coming in Friday and Saturday had to be all rain. Would of been a ton of snow if it came in when it was colder earlier this week. Ugh.... I understand where you're coming from, but the fact it's still November plus a possible winter event within 7 days doesn't sting so bad. A few cutters this time of year are to be expected, the awesome winter of 2013-14 had a couple very early in December as well as the 21st. Now, if this December ends up being 2 inches of snow and 5+ inches of rain then yes, that will suck...lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2018 13:13:13 GMT -6
Euro still has the winter storm late next week. Warms it up more on the front end so WAA would likely be rain (or frz rain if arctic airmass holds on) followed by backside snow. Nothing else to talk about and looking at the teleconnections today it seems this will be our window before we transition to a warmer pattern for a bit.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 29, 2018 13:16:59 GMT -6
EURO still showing a significant storm late next week...could be a bruiser if it comes out like it shows and phases with the N branch.
I still suspect the Mon/Tues timeframe could have a light mix or snow threat.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2018 13:21:21 GMT -6
EURO still showing a significant storm late next week...could be a bruiser if it comes out like it shows and phases with the N branch. I still suspect the Mon/Tues timeframe could have a light mix or snow threat. Yup its a classic look even in terms of where it comes ashore on the west coast. This is the kind of system that usually comes into play for us. Does appear that cold air will be coming down at the same time, just a matter of at what point during the system it takes place. Hopefully we will have something to track before winter takes a break. Disagree with the Mon/Tues assessment though. I'm not seeing much there at all. The system just falls apart over the four corners region. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2018 13:30:11 GMT -6
EURO still showing a significant storm late next week...could be a bruiser if it comes out like it shows and phases with the N branch. I still suspect the Mon/Tues timeframe could have a light mix or snow threat. Thats a really promising looking setup late next week. Should be plenty of cold air to work with |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 29, 2018 13:30:50 GMT -6
Um. Its like 60 here. Waaay warmer than anyone even dreamed about forecasting today.
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Post by RyanD on Nov 29, 2018 13:45:42 GMT -6
Um. Its like 60 here. Waaay warmer than anyone even dreamed about forecasting today. It is 60F at my house too. I was shocked. I wasn't expecting it to already by 30 degrees warmer than yesterday! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 29, 2018 14:45:08 GMT -6
Yeah, Chris's forecast went down in flames...it happens. Nice day out!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 29, 2018 14:56:22 GMT -6
Yup.... the paper is burning in the fireplace now lol. The clouds were on their way... then stopped dead at FAM. Much rather miss this way. There arent many unhappy about a day of bonus sun.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 29, 2018 16:32:52 GMT -6
18z gfs looks pretty wild...
Too bad there is a week to go. Very rarely do we see these work out, but there is now something to track.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 29, 2018 16:45:00 GMT -6
So the GFS has been playing Lucy football with that 12/8 storm. It's there, then it's gone. It's there, then it's rain, then it's gone. Now it's back.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2018 17:00:28 GMT -6
So the GFS has been playing Lucy football with that 12/8 storm. It's there, then it's gone. It's there, then it's rain, then it's gone. Now it's back. Euro has been consistently showing it for a few runs now. I like that the energy looks to come ashore pretty far south near San Diego so we don’t have to worry about it needing to dig. There looks like there will be a strong high to our north keeping the system from trying to cut north to much/quick and feeding in some cold air for the system to work with |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Nov 29, 2018 17:14:33 GMT -6
So the GFS has been playing Lucy football with that 12/8 storm. It's there, then it's gone. It's there, then it's rain, then it's gone. Now it's back. Ya that's the one I mentioned a couple days ago. It had the 7th-8th already marked for a good storm. Then yes, it went away! Lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 29, 2018 17:18:59 GMT -6
So the GFS has been playing Lucy football with that 12/8 storm. It's there, then it's gone. It's there, then it's rain, then it's gone. Now it's back. Euro has been consistently showing it for a few runs now. I like that the energy looks to come ashore pretty far south near San Diego so we don’t have to worry about it needing to dig. There looks like there will be a strong high to our north keeping the system from trying to cut north to much/quick and feeding in some cold air for the system to work with I could see that low getting stuck in the southwest and a big overrunning event unfolding. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 29, 2018 17:27:59 GMT -6
this is a little different setup as well with high pressure nosing from the great plains to oh valley. to me, our biggest issue wont be that it wld trend north. this may be a southerners storm. right now cgi stands to get several inches and when that happens the snow gradient gets pinched off to the north.too early to say now. we mght want to chk our expectations due to dam, especially n of 44. the track is way down there and even though the trend is north this year, keep the position of that high in mind.
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Post by mchafin on Nov 29, 2018 17:28:45 GMT -6
So the GFS has been playing Lucy football with that 12/8 storm. It's there, then it's gone. It's there, then it's rain, then it's gone. Now it's back. Ya that's the one I mentioned a couple days ago. It had the 7th-8th already marked for a good storm. Then yes, it went away! Lol It’s the same one the GFS has been suppressing every once in a while. Fun times ahead (maybe) in about 1 week  |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Nov 29, 2018 19:43:42 GMT -6
Yup.... the paper is burning in the fireplace now lol. The clouds were on their way... then stopped dead at FAM. Much rather miss this way. There arent many unhappy about a day of bonus sun. Only got to 50* here |
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Post by birddog on Nov 29, 2018 20:33:48 GMT -6
42° was the high here today.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 29, 2018 21:03:30 GMT -6
Nam and Hi res Nam are starting to show some low topped supercells rotating through the area Saturday afternoon. Not a ton of CAPE and dewpoints are only in the 50's, but shear is good. Could be a marginal severe threat
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 29, 2018 22:05:09 GMT -6
I can see that burst of snow for Tuesday am rush
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 29, 2018 22:14:14 GMT -6
Let's see if the gfs loses the late week storm like it does pretty regularly at this range before finding it again...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 29, 2018 22:18:21 GMT -6
Let's see if the gfs loses the late week storm like it does pretty regularly at this range before finding it again... 00z GGEM is way too slow with the ejection allowing WAA to make it a rainer. |
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