Chris's Corner - Welcome to Winter 2018-19

Gfs is borderline. But has a formidable system.


And dave ALWAYS stands by his forecasts..he never changes. We have said this many times over the years.

Long range forecasts are strictly for entertainment value. I imagine if landscaper prepared his business based on the long range forecasts he’d have a mountain of salt in April and trying to mow grass in January.

That’s good because the GFS is all over the place right now.

Ya 06z gfs sucks!

That is true, I always forget about to check that one. When does that one fully take the place of the old GFS?

Models have trended slower and further W with the track of the low...not surprising with a closed, negatively tilted system.

Its alittle south but I like the look of it. Given how prevalent the north trend is this year, being south at this range is probably a good thing

A few of the CAMs are generating storms with modest UH tracks west of the river tomorrow afternoon, but for the most part global models are stingy with afternoon convection and what there is is well east or northeast of St. Louis. That leaves me thinking severe weather for the metro proper is still somewhat low, but worth a marginal risk unless the frontal passage is even slower in which a categorical upgrade might be warranted. I can however see a threat more reflective of slight risk, although that's still iffy, in IL given the timing of the front and owing to the likely development of at least 500j/kg of CAPE and 50+kts of deep layer shear. If directional & low level shear work out like the NAM then yes a couple tornadoes could be possible too...if afternoon storms develop and mature...but I tend to think a few storms will pop up along the front given there is some, even if weakish, surface convergence going on combined with around 90m 500mb height falls occurring during the period.

MAJOR earthquake centered near Anchorage, AK... 7.0M with widespread major damage...
The tweet says 7.2M but that has been revised downward... Tsunami Warning was issued but has since been cancelled.

One of my friends has checked in on Facebook.  Said cell service is iffy.  He and his family are okay, but he has not gotten to his home yet.  Said it was major movement for at least a minute. He's a substitute teacher and is sheltering at the school.  He posted these pictures on Facebook.  Fire Marshall is at the school doing inspection.  School name is Palmer Junior Middle School

Models are trending towards a flatter, more suppressed track for next week's storm. This is mostly due to a secondary shortwave digging across the lakes in the N branch that re-enforces the confluent flow/surface ridging across the OHV. We need that to come in weaker or faster or the storm will be squashed. The EC is substantially weaker with that wave and places the surface ridge in a much more favorable position...pretty much in our wheelhouse, actually with it sitting right over the lakes.

The storm will come back north.

This is the bad part of a major system showing up at long range. It's like having a fish bit right after you cast waaay out into the lake. Long time to try and reel it in.

HRRR hinting at a decent squall line on the backside of the rain/storm shied hitting around 6-8AM. Could have some decent winds with it.