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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 19:52:03 GMT -6
Looking at the same thing... whould be good lift in the right entrance- seems to want to show the southern stream pulling north. Will be interesting to watch this week.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 2, 2018 20:22:17 GMT -6
Honestly the models right now look potentially great.
This is our classic blob large scale ascent moderate snow event.
And the energy Tuesday is punching across southern Missouri.
We will probably see a light coating of snow Tuesday afternoon.
And a Thursday has widespread 1-2" potential with decent frontal forcing over a decently large area.
The third system is the wildcard.
But the first two are at like 80% imo guaranteed to give us at least snow in the air.
And its only December 2nd.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2018 20:30:06 GMT -6
Honestly the models right now look potentially great. This is our classic blob large scale ascent moderate snow event. And the energy Tuesday is punching across southern Missouri. We will probably see a light coating of snow Tuesday afternoon. And a Thursday has widespread 1-2" potential with decent frontal forcing over a decently large area. The third system is the wildcard. But the first two are at like 80% imo guaranteed to give us at least snow in the air. And its only December 2nd. And last year us would be rolling at the fact that Lambert saw 5.2" of JUST IN November. Snowiest November in 38 years. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 20:52:42 GMT -6
Thursday could definitely drop a couple inches quickly somewhere.
Its fast moving, but looks fairly stout.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 2, 2018 21:42:17 GMT -6
I'm likely wrong... still think Tuesday morning may have some good snow showers. Some decent height falls and should have some good lift north of the strong jet.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 2, 2018 21:53:24 GMT -6
Had to go to the app. The website for the forum is blocked by the spam again.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 2, 2018 21:53:42 GMT -6
I'm likely wrong... still think Tuesday morning may have some good snow showers. Some decent height falls and should have some good lift north of the strong jet.
hi-res nam has streamers hanging around for most of the day. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 22:11:48 GMT -6
Unsurprisingly...850 temps are now starting to look marginal for the end of week storm.
It will be a fine line between a northern solution and a wintry mix.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 2, 2018 22:16:10 GMT -6
Major improvement with the gem. Gfs very similar to 18z just a tick torn off the northern edge.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 22:16:22 GMT -6
Southern Missouri takes a good hit on both the gfs and gem.
Definitely a watcher, but far from a slam dunk setup.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 2, 2018 22:17:53 GMT -6
Unsurprisingly...850 temps are now starting to look marginal for the end of week storm. It will be a fine line between a northern solution and a wintry mix. It's not likely to be to warm for a wintery mix unless it slows down and comes out closed off with multiple isothachs. This is going to be hard pressed to be a i70/N event as is. The 00Z gfs is essentially perfect for this time range. This beast has February 1993 potential. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2018 22:18:10 GMT -6
Major improvement with the gem. Gfs very similar to 18z just a tick torn off the northern edge. I still really like the overall setup of this system. GFS showing some good trends from the 12z run |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 22:23:17 GMT -6
Unsurprisingly...850 temps are now starting to look marginal for the end of week storm. It will be a fine line between a northern solution and a wintry mix. It's not likely to be to warm for a wintery mix unless it slows down and comes out closed off with multiple isothachs. This is going to be hard pressed to be a i70/N event as is. The 00Z gfs is essentially perfect for this time range. This beast has February 1993 potential. Well, my comment was more for a 70 scenario. Obviously if it plays out exactly as modeled, things look fine for southern Missouri. There was a storm about 12 years ago that never quite made it to STL...Came west to east with a similar orientation as modeled. Went from a 10 inch snow to 3 inches of sleet down that way. It might just be the orientation, but I'm stuck on that storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 2, 2018 22:32:16 GMT -6
GFS does briefly close off a 500 low in southern Mo that run and has a nice closed mid level low further south
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 2, 2018 22:33:12 GMT -6
It's not likely to be to warm for a wintery mix unless it slows down and comes out closed off with multiple isothachs. This is going to be hard pressed to be a i70/N event as is. The 00Z gfs is essentially perfect for this time range. This beast has February 1993 potential. Well, my comment was more for a 70 scenario. Obviously if it plays out exactly as modeled, things look fine for southern Missouri. There was a storm about 12 years ago that never quite made it to STL...Came west to east with a similar orientation as modeled. Went from a 10 inch snow to 3 inches of sleet down that way. It might just be the orientation, but I'm stuck on that storm. Well you are right the mid level temps are fairly marginal. Luckily it's dry but if this system comes out any slower or stronger things could change in terms of all snow. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 2, 2018 22:42:45 GMT -6
Also, Dr. Cohen seems to think the PV is going to abandon us for a bit. That sucks, but hopefully not for the whole season.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 2, 2018 22:45:43 GMT -6
It's not likely to be to warm for a wintery mix unless it slows down and comes out closed off with multiple isothachs. This is going to be hard pressed to be a i70/N event as is. The 00Z gfs is essentially perfect for this time range. This beast has February 1993 potential. Well, my comment was more for a 70 scenario. Obviously if it plays out exactly as modeled, things look fine for southern Missouri. There was a storm about 12 years ago that never quite made it to STL...Came west to east with a similar orientation as modeled. Went from a 10 inch snow to 3 inches of sleet down that way. It might just be the orientation, but I'm stuck on that storm. I remember one like that in February of 2010 i believe. We were supposed to get 6-10” and you could literally see the snow line at the Madison/St clair county border. Ended up getting 0. |
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Post by RyanD on Dec 2, 2018 23:07:27 GMT -6
Let's hope we see some snow this week because after this weekend things look rather balmy up until Xmas. I think the GFS is too far south but I wouldn't feel too comfortable if I lived north of 70. This has the look of one of these razor thin cutoffs.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2018 0:23:29 GMT -6
Euro has your snow showers/squalls Tuesday Coz
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2018 0:36:34 GMT -6
And dry as a bone Saturday
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2018 0:36:43 GMT -6
Euro is a brick wall.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2018 2:06:16 GMT -6
Interestingly enough, the Euro ensembles look better on the 00z run than the 12z run. Nice little shift north to the snowfield
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2018 2:39:22 GMT -6
Interestingly enough, the Euro ensembles look better on the 00z run than the 12z run. Nice little shift north to the snowfield I saw that. The operational just kiils it. Hopefully this is a case where the models "lose" the storm in the 5-6 day time frame, then bring it back. Let's hope Monday they start with a stronger/north solution. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2018 4:25:50 GMT -6
Chris seems about as enthused for snow here as the Euro is.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 3, 2018 4:32:58 GMT -6
Yeah... not feeling the weekend system right now. I'm carrying partly cloudy with "some light snow well south" in the forecast for now. I will agree...there is potential for it to come north...but this looks like a far southern MO/Ohio River storm...maybe some light snow this far north...but that seems a stretch at the moment.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 3, 2018 4:39:40 GMT -6
NWS
80% for snow then 40% and Now has me at 20%
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 3, 2018 5:00:57 GMT -6
What they did not say was there was only a 1% chance of that 80% verifying.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2018 5:03:59 GMT -6
Models still showing south with this morning's data. Lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2018 5:33:24 GMT -6
I'm afraid if nothing comes out of this weekend, then we're going to be waiting for a while, possibly until January for decent snow. Looks like a warm up coming for sure. It can snow with above normal temps, it's just harder. Hope this thing heads north, but not looking good.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2018 6:01:50 GMT -6
I'm afraid if nothing comes out of this weekend, then we're going to be waiting for a while, possibly until January for decent snow. Looks like a warm up coming for sure. It can snow with above normal temps, it's just harder. Hope this thing heads north, but not looking good. Ya really sucks. I don't want to warm up again. How warm are we talking? |
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