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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2018 19:43:11 GMT -6
I havent complained about anything. But I wont believe the 18z until the 0,6, and 12 z models...all models, follow suit. My birthday is Thursday, so I'd like to see it too.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 3, 2018 19:44:54 GMT -6
Personally I would rather miss this one. Hope we get one for Christmas time. I personally would love to get a major snow storm |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 3, 2018 19:46:29 GMT -6
I havent complained about anything. But I wont believe the 18z until the 0,6, and 12 z models...all models, follow suit. My birthday is Thursday, so I'd like to see it too. The mid levels look similar to the models last night The 12z run was a huge blip A change is the Northern stream is cooperating on the 18z runs. And there is still room for further amplification. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 3, 2018 20:03:33 GMT -6
Sunset tomorrow and for the next week is 4:39 PM. That's the earliest for St. Louis and then it starts getting later again. Unfortunately sunrise continues to get later for another month so daylight isn't getting any longer yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2018 20:08:27 GMT -6
There is going to be shifts in the modeling for another couple days at least...the wave that amplifies the NW flow across the lakes region is still out in the Pacific near the Aleutian chain and these types of waves are often not modeled well at all even after coming ashore. The timing and strength of that piece of energy is crucial to the track of the storm as it ejects.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 3, 2018 20:31:43 GMT -6
There is going to be shifts in the modeling for another couple days at least...the wave that amplifies the NW flow across the lakes region is still out in the Pacific near the Aleutian chain and these types of waves are often not modeled well at all even after coming ashore. The timing and strength of that piece of energy is crucial to the track of the storm as it ejects. The position of the outgoing jet is what I been looking at too- where the coupling with the southern wave sets up is key |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2018 20:39:30 GMT -6
Sounds like the potential of this winter season will be significantly decided over the next couple weeks. A stratospheric warming event is kicking off that will weaken the PV.
This should establish a more persistent pattern for the end of December through most of January.
Could be an amazing cross polar flow, or something less fun.
Hopefully we get lucky, but Dr. Cohen sure makes the reader temper expectations.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2018 20:40:40 GMT -6
SNSH look quite vigorous tomorrow with HRRR/RAP coughing up over a tenth inch of QPF and 1" of snow in some distinct bands moving northwest to southeast. Could get some moderate bursts of snow tomorrow afternoon into the early evening.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 3, 2018 21:07:14 GMT -6
Sounds like the potential of this winter season will be significantly decided over the next couple weeks. A stratospheric warming event is kicking off that will weaken the PV. This should establish a more persistent pattern for the end of December through most of January. Could be an amazing cross polar flow, or something less fun. Hopefully we get lucky, but Dr. Cohen sure makes the reader temper expectations. so basically, which side of the globe does the cold air spill? i think, jmpo, we have seen the cold air spill readily in our corner of the world, so i wld be willing to bet that is more likely to repeat. not knowing where or how the pv weakens that wld be my guess. its consistent with general consensus of a turn to winter over the holidays. i will be frank and say, i am looking fwd to aome 50s next week for a few days. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 3, 2018 21:14:25 GMT -6
I'm guessing frank is someone who likes temps in the 50s?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2018 21:19:30 GMT -6
I'm guessing frank is someone who likes temps in the 50s? Or someone who gambles exclusively on the weather. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 3, 2018 21:37:57 GMT -6
The hires nam is looking pretty nice for snow showers on and off tonight but much more widespread tomorrow.
Could see a thick coating
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Post by RyanD on Dec 3, 2018 21:43:40 GMT -6
Here's some drone footage (Autel EVO) I shot of the Nov 15th snowfall. If you have a 4k monitor then be sure to watch it in 4k@60fps.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 3, 2018 21:44:24 GMT -6
There is going to be shifts in the modeling for another couple days at least...the wave that amplifies the NW flow across the lakes region is still out in the Pacific near the Aleutian chain and these types of waves are often not modeled well at all even after coming ashore. The timing and strength of that piece of energy is crucial to the track of the storm as it ejects. The position of the outgoing jet is what I been looking at too- where the coupling with the southern wave sets up is key No doubt...some of these runs have had a pretty good look upstairs but they squash the surface low waaaaaaay S with deep convection. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 3, 2018 21:44:43 GMT -6
Both the rgem, hrrr, and hires nam show a decent band of light snow moving directly threw the metro in the morning.
Could be a 1/2".
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2018 22:06:35 GMT -6
Looks like 00z gfs is going to follow suit to the earlier runs, not the 18z. Only up to 108 hrs per topical tidbits.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Dec 3, 2018 22:06:41 GMT -6
how does 00z gfs look tonight?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 3, 2018 22:09:04 GMT -6
how does 00z gfs look tonight? Staying south still... |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 3, 2018 22:09:15 GMT -6
how does 00z gfs look tonight? Judging by the crickets |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 3, 2018 22:09:30 GMT -6
South of the 18z run, but still much more north than the 12z. Has southern counties on the northern edge of the accumulating snow.
Forecasting the high will be the key as usual with this. Subtle changes in position and intensity are massively important with this setup. I'm still in on this one down here where nobody lives.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2018 22:13:18 GMT -6
South of the 18z run, but still much more north than the 12z. Has southern counties on the northern edge of the accumulating snow. Forecasting the high will be the key as usual with this. Subtle changes in position and intensity are massively important with this setup. I'm still in on this one down here where nobody lives. Best get the euro on your side soon... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 3, 2018 22:16:34 GMT -6
The only difference between the 18z and 00z GFS is model noise really, especially at this range. Hopefully the euro comes in more like the GFS
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 3, 2018 22:18:24 GMT -6
Yea...need the euro badly that is for sure.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 3, 2018 22:24:03 GMT -6
50 bucks says euro has the snow no closer than cape.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 3, 2018 22:46:37 GMT -6
Hour 264 of the gfs is the dream...
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 3, 2018 22:53:41 GMT -6
Hour 264 of the gfs is the dream... EPS and GEFS show troughing at D10 so this period might be a candidate for a storm system of some kind. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 3, 2018 23:01:34 GMT -6
Hour 264 of the gfs is the dream... My goodness. That may be a big enough storm for a white Christmas in 2019. Euro will be good. Positive thinking. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 3, 2018 23:45:37 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 4, 2018 0:28:46 GMT -6
Euro closes off 500 in OK, but everything is still squashed. Hardly anything in MO at all, lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 4, 2018 1:25:17 GMT -6
It’s flat pouring snow and grapuel here
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