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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2018 14:37:27 GMT -6
I can relate doing landscape lighting managed to find 10 inch frost depth in the new flowerbed in Kirkwood with rest of the yard 3 to 5 inches. Pretty remarkable this early
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 12, 2018 14:50:52 GMT -6
I wore my spongebob boxers to church this past weekend
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2018 16:14:17 GMT -6
My cat's breath smells like cat food.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2018 16:21:41 GMT -6
Did I miss something? What are you all talking about? Spongebob and cat food? I feel like there is something I missed.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 12, 2018 16:22:16 GMT -6
Did I miss something? What are you all talking about? Spongebob and cat food? I feel like there is something I missed. Me, too
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 12, 2018 16:25:26 GMT -6
Did I miss something? What are you all talking about? Spongebob and cat food? I feel like there is something I missed. Me, too It's something called boring weather with nothing to really watch.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 12, 2018 16:57:09 GMT -6
i just went outside and it looks like we are currently experiencing some weather outside.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 12, 2018 17:56:27 GMT -6
Pattern starts to look much better towards Christmas...the troffing in the GoA and downstream zonal flow/downsloping is only temporary in the modeling. The warning met at lsx said above avg temps and precip on kmox this asternoon and called for a brown Christmas.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2018 18:15:31 GMT -6
I think there's very little doubt, even 13 days out we will have a brown Christmas
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 12, 2018 18:31:17 GMT -6
Or muddy Christmas...whichever.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 12, 2018 18:54:54 GMT -6
What time will the rain move in?
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 12, 2018 19:17:05 GMT -6
I think there's very little doubt, even 13 days out we will have a brown Christmas Eh, looks like cold air will come back on the 24th. Should be enough to spawn a rain to cold scenario
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 12, 2018 19:19:27 GMT -6
What time will the rain move in? My local forecast says mid-to-late morning tomorrow
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 12, 2018 19:52:10 GMT -6
Could be a few isolated showers as early as that, but the main thrust of the rain should move in around lunchtime between 11AM to 1PM Give or take an hour
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Post by yypc on Dec 12, 2018 20:10:29 GMT -6
Is the rain supposed to linger till Saturday morning now?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 12, 2018 20:49:01 GMT -6
Is the rain supposed to linger till Saturday morning now? A slower exit is looking more likely, with the latest NAM hot off the press now showing a Saturday evening departure time especially for the Illinois counties with around early/mid afternoon for much of the Missouri Counties. Also the NAM is re-introducing some sloppy wet flakes on the backside deformation zone for Saturday. Won't accumulate, but hey... Snow! Even if it's a bit of a long shot. This is due to the upper level track continuing to slow down and shift gradually more west and north each, or close to it. NAM is about as good as it can possibly get with this system given the perimeters. As for rainfall, the NAM shows a rather heavy 2-3 inch band from the Metro down to White Hall, MO
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 12, 2018 20:58:09 GMT -6
If we can pump that southeast/east coast ridge a bit more I could see this thing's ULL tracking farther west to northeastern LA into Memphis, west central Kentucky and eventually Cincinnati Area. Also system would stay stronger as well which might allow enough dynamic cooling for some backside snow 2-5 hours before the precip ends. Best case scenario but not too unrealistic either. This would also slow the system down farther, possibly into Sunday AM but again that's a stretch.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 12, 2018 21:13:59 GMT -6
ICON/RGEM pulling more north this run. Might this system have some tricks up it's sleeve. GFS/GEM could be intriguing to look at... Or not.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2018 0:11:52 GMT -6
540dm all the way in Manitoba!
CPC has been all over this Mid-December thaw since last weekend
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 13, 2018 9:21:36 GMT -6
2018 is on track to become the only year on record without a violet tornado. This record extends through the SPC database back to 1950 and likely goes further back than that when using the Grazulis database from what I've been reading.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 13, 2018 11:04:51 GMT -6
2018 is on track to become the only year on record without a violet tornado. This record extends through the SPC database back to 1950 and likely goes further back than that when using the Grazulis database from what I've been reading. I have a feeling folks in Taylorville, IL would disagree with that assessment.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 13, 2018 11:30:50 GMT -6
2018 is on track to become the only year on record without a violet tornado. This record extends through the SPC database back to 1950 and likely goes further back than that when using the Grazulis database from what I've been reading. I have a feeling folks in Taylorville, IL would disagree with that assessment. Apparently there was a rather strong tornado in Florida last week that was only rated EF3 too. A weather station even recorded a 144 mph wind gust from it. Another oddity from 12/01...the Easton, IL tornado was only rated EF1.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2018 12:27:05 GMT -6
2018 is on track to become the only year on record without a violet tornado. This record extends through the SPC database back to 1950 and likely goes further back than that when using the Grazulis database from what I've been reading. I have a feeling folks in Taylorville, IL would disagree with that assessment. I never saw any pictures from Taylorville that suggested EF4 damage...I only saw one framed house that was completely destroyed but it didn't look like a well constructed house. Of course, from a homeowner standpoint, there's not much difference between EF3 and EF4 damage when your the remaining walls or partial roof structure have to be bulldozed...it was a bad tornado either way.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 13, 2018 13:04:48 GMT -6
Wow the next week to 10 days of weather is going to be BOOORRRRRIIIIINNNNNGGGGG!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2018 13:33:46 GMT -6
Wow the next week to 10 days of weather is going to be BOOORRRRRIIIIINNNNNGGGGG! Those sunglasses will be getting one heck of a work out.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 13, 2018 13:51:08 GMT -6
Wow the next week to 10 days of weather is going to be BOOORRRRRIIIIINNNNNGGGGG! Those sunglasses will be getting one heck of a work out. I wouldn’t be getting them out yet. It looks like at least part of it is going to be a relatively “dirty” airmass.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2018 15:12:41 GMT -6
Globals are forecasting a massive strat warming event to occur right around Christmas...if that comes to fruition there could be a severe stretch of winter during January. Long term forecasts have been consistent in showing the vortex re-emerging onto our side of the pole around then with a good feed of cold air into the lower 48. If the warming event disrupts and splits the PV it should allow large chunks of arctic airmass to spill south...hopefully with some storms to work with.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2018 15:25:50 GMT -6
Globals are forecasting a massive strat warming event to occur right around Christmas...if that comes to fruition there could be a severe stretch of winter during January. Long term forecasts have been consistent in showing the vortex re-emerging onto our side of the pole around then with a good feed of cold air into the lower 48. If the warming event disrupts and splits the PV it should allow large chunks of arctic airmass to spill south...hopefully with some storms to work with. EPO and NAO show negative in the future again today but not quite as convincingly as yesterday. I'll admit I don't know much about the strat warming stuff. Where does one go to see these projections?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2018 15:45:19 GMT -6
Latest euro weeklies show a big ridge developing in Alaska toward the end of the month into the new year. I think January could be a fun month. Hopefully the storm track stays active and we see continued wrapped up lows
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2018 15:55:24 GMT -6
Globals are forecasting a massive strat warming event to occur right around Christmas...if that comes to fruition there could be a severe stretch of winter during January. Long term forecasts have been consistent in showing the vortex re-emerging onto our side of the pole around then with a good feed of cold air into the lower 48. If the warming event disrupts and splits the PV it should allow large chunks of arctic airmass to spill south...hopefully with some storms to work with. I think the only debate is on if it will be a displacement or a split
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