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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 11, 2018 13:40:22 GMT -6
who is doing that study on model verification and how is that working out?
GFS 12Z 48 - 72: 3.0"
GFS 12Z 72 - 96: 3.2"
GFS 12Z 96 - 120: 2.0"
GFS 12Z 120 - 144: 4.4"
GFS 12Z 144 - 168: 8.8"
GFS 12Z 168 - 192: 1.2"
GFS 12Z 192 - 216: 5.3"
GFS 12Z 216 - 240: 2.7"
Observed at STL: 6.9"
[/q I'm not quite sure what you're verifying here |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 11, 2018 14:31:20 GMT -6
I would say the bulk of them have come through, but there is always groups of stragglers that stay further N. Some may never even make it S of here some years if there's open water and little snowcover. Geese are hardy birds...especially canadas. Lots of Canadas still up in this area. (Not sure of their nationality  ). I think a lot of them are resident geese that only migrate when the snow gets too deep. They hang out on frozen ponds and in corn fields. Well, if they apologize a lot and have a distinct “eh” with their honk, they’re Canadians. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 11, 2018 14:33:40 GMT -6
Lots of Canadas still up in this area. (Not sure of their nationality ). I think a lot of them are resident geese that only migrate when the snow gets too deep. They hang out on frozen ponds and in corn fields. Well, if they apologize a lot and have a distinct “eh” with their honk, they’re Canadians. They're "suuoory" for crapping all over your yard. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 11, 2018 15:13:44 GMT -6
GFS 12Z 24 - 48: 3.2"
GFS 12Z 48 - 72: 3.0"
GFS 12Z 72 - 96: 3.2"
GFS 12Z 96 - 120: 2.0"
GFS 12Z 120 - 144: 4.4"
GFS 12Z 144 - 168: 8.8"
GFS 12Z 168 - 192: 1.2"
GFS 12Z 192 - 216: 5.3"
GFS 12Z 216 - 240: 2.7"
Observed at STL: 6.9"
I'm not quite sure what you're verifying here I'm logging predicted snowfall (Kuchera method) from 9 different lead times of the 12Z GFS and comparing them to actual observations. We'll see how much snowfall the GFS predicted St. Louis would get throughout the season and compare it to what we actually got. My hypothesis is that the Kuchera method snowfall products derived from the GFS will be biased high. So far the data is proving me wrong. We'll see how this plays out. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 11, 2018 15:22:37 GMT -6
WPC has a killer track for the trailing low. Only problem is it's petering out in Arkansas
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 11, 2018 16:47:26 GMT -6
Even with it getting well into the 50’s today there is still snow on north facing areas and rooftop at my place. It’s been a week (today) since this fell. Couldn’t keep the 7” more then 36 hours but this sticks around for over a week.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 11, 2018 18:24:22 GMT -6
Hidden Valley was hoping to open on Saturday. What is all this forecast rain going to do to that hope?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 11, 2018 18:26:27 GMT -6
Hidden Valley was hoping to open on Saturday. What is all this forecast rain going to do to that hope? Not great timing to start the season...but they should have a nice base down by then and I doubt the rain wipes that out completely. I don't see them opening up this weekend though... |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 332 
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Post by bob on Dec 11, 2018 21:21:39 GMT -6
so any chances things change in time for white christmas?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 11, 2018 22:31:05 GMT -6
GEM has seen the light and finally dropped snow chances completely for the upcoming storm. Straight rain to mild scenario now from all models.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 11, 2018 22:32:40 GMT -6
so any chances things change in time for white christmas? Christmas will be cool to cold but brown/green. New Year's Eve/Day might hold some promise if not very soon after. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 12, 2018 5:04:11 GMT -6
Yippee! Power is out in this part of High Ridge. Happy Wednesday.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 12, 2018 6:26:22 GMT -6
Amazing how more of the left over snow melted over night then what melted during the daylight hours yesterday and 50+ temperatures
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 12, 2018 6:51:34 GMT -6
Amazing how more of the left over snow melted over night then what melted during the daylight hours yesterday and 50+ temperatures Cold ground finally warmed up... |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 12, 2018 8:09:50 GMT -6
so any chances things change in time for white christmas? Christmas will be cool to cold but brown/green. New Year's Eve/Day might hold some promise if not very soon after. Don't you think you're jumping the gun a bit there with that prediction? Models have been unreliable 3 days out, not to mention for 7+ days out. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 12, 2018 8:13:27 GMT -6
I would rather have a stretch of non winter weather now. Hoping it comes back for the Holidays though....
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 12, 2018 8:18:49 GMT -6
Amazing how more of the left over snow melted over night then what melted during the daylight hours yesterday and 50+ temperatures Cold ground finally warmed up... Actually the ground is still frozen underneath the snow. Frost never come out of the ground on north facing surfaces yesterday either. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 12, 2018 8:59:29 GMT -6
12Z NAM making some pretty huge north shift this run. Too bad it's just a tad too warm, would of been close to something pretty exciting.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 12, 2018 9:04:22 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2018 9:49:25 GMT -6
EPO and NAO both still set to go negative by early next week. Cold air and often winter weather is usually to follow when that happens this time of year. I'd like to see a little better cold core develop in Canada but that will come with time. There's often a lag there but we should still be feeling good as we head toward and through the holidays.
Maybe since winter started a month early, what we are experiencing now can be seen as a December thaw instead of January. Sort of saying that sarcastically but perhaps will be some truth to it as well.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2018 9:51:17 GMT -6
The theory that the chaff was providing cover for flying saucers seems like the most likely explanation to me as well. I appreciate that the author of the article was astute enough to realize this and that the only mystery here was where the plane that dropped chaff came from and not why the chaff was dropped in the first place. |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 12, 2018 9:56:48 GMT -6
EPO and NAO both still set to go negative by early next week. Cold air and often winter weather is usually to follow when that happens this time of year. I'd like to see a little better cold core develop in Canada but that will come with time. There's often a lag there but we should still be feeling good as we head toward and through the holidays. Maybe since winter started a month early, what we are experiencing now can be seen as a December thaw instead of January. Sort of saying that sarcastically but perhaps will be some truth to it as well. It could possibly be our thaw. Keep an eye on SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska. We need either those or a negative NAO to create the buckle required to deliver cold air to the lower 48 |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2018 10:02:30 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS go full bore ridging and light the torch especially over Canada.   |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 12, 2018 10:06:48 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS go full bore ridging and light the torch especially over Canada. That’s ugly. How long does it take to dissipate? |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 12, 2018 10:13:15 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS go full bore ridging and light the torch especially over Canada. That’s ugly. How long does it take to dissipate? And that translates to what, upper 40s to mid 50s? |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 12, 2018 10:36:05 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS go full bore ridging and light the torch especially over Canada. That’s ugly. How long does it take to dissipate? Three months! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 12, 2018 10:53:24 GMT -6
That’s ugly. How long does it take to dissipate? Three months! Really? Is this something that could change next week?? Or has this been showing this for awhile. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 12, 2018 11:29:29 GMT -6
Really? Is this something that could change next week?? Or has this been showing this for awhile. It'll dissipate by end of Dec. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 12, 2018 12:24:20 GMT -6
Pattern starts to look much better towards Christmas...the troffing in the GoA and downstream zonal flow/downsloping is only temporary in the modeling.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Dec 12, 2018 14:06:56 GMT -6
I'm having new stamped concrete patios, sidewalks and driveway put in this week, and we already have a 2" to 2-1/2" frost line depth in Mascoutah
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). I think a lot of them are resident geese that only migrate when the snow gets too deep. They hang out on frozen ponds and in corn fields.
