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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 18, 2018 8:50:25 GMT -6
Washington Post has gone to a "let's see if we can get everyone to freak out" story. In the ''whatever it's worth' department. But I'm betting all kinds of smaller newspapers and electronic media outlets will pick the story up as a 100% certainty Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by January |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 18, 2018 10:18:58 GMT -6
Dave says the week between Christmas and New Years looks "interesting". Not sure what interesting might mean though.....snow? cold? warmth?
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 18, 2018 10:41:48 GMT -6
Washington Post has gone to a "let's see if we can get everyone to freak out" story. In the ''whatever it's worth' department. But I'm betting all kinds of smaller newspapers and electronic media outlets will pick the story up as a 100% certainty Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by JanuaryIn this new age of clicks... this is pretty much becoming the bread and butter of journalism. |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 18, 2018 11:11:06 GMT -6
Dave says the week between Christmas and New Years looks "interesting". Not sure what interesting might mean though.....snow? cold? warmth? Rain with winter precip mixing in possibly at times but not likely at this point IMO |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 18, 2018 11:58:59 GMT -6
Dave says the week between Christmas and New Years looks "interesting". Not sure what interesting might mean though.....snow? cold? warmth? The upper air pattern would appear to be going through a change/modification. These types of events almost always spawn a storm. At this point a Rainer, a rain/snower, or a dry slot are all options. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2018 12:13:23 GMT -6
Dave says the week between Christmas and New Years looks "interesting". Not sure what interesting might mean though.....snow? cold? warmth? The upper air pattern would appear to be going through a change/modification. These types of events almost always spawn a storm. At this point a Rainer, a rain/snower, or a dry slot are all options. With the AO hovering around neutral to negative for the next 2 weeks I think we will continue to see an active pattern. Just need "enough" cold air and a favorable low track and you never know |
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Post by RyanD on Dec 18, 2018 12:58:44 GMT -6
I never expected December to be very cold or snowy especially after how wintry November was. We were due for a respite. I always expected this January to be cold and snowy. Just the opposite of what Dave was thinking. Let's see how this plays out. One thing that worries me is that we rarely see good winters after cold and snowy November's.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Dec 18, 2018 13:23:53 GMT -6
I never expected December to be very cold or snowy especially after how wintry November was. We were due for a respite. I always expected this January to be cold and snowy. Just the opposite of what Dave was thinking. Let's see how this plays out. One thing that worries me is that we rarely see good winters after cold and snowy November's. exactly. I have no actual science to back this up, but as soon as November got cold & snowy, I immediately thought about the winter of '06-'07. Big ice storm and cold in late November and then................nada. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 18, 2018 13:26:22 GMT -6
I never expected December to be very cold or snowy especially after how wintry November was. We were due for a respite. I always expected this January to be cold and snowy. Just the opposite of what Dave was thinking. Let's see how this plays out. One thing that worries me is that we rarely see good winters after cold and snowy November's. There's valid logic to that. As cold and snowy as much of November was it's just not realistic to expect that to continue through February. At least not at 40° latitude. Even the cold lengthy winters of the mid to late 70s the cold really didn't get consistent until a week or two into January. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2018 13:44:47 GMT -6
At this point I'd say it's highly unlikely that the rest of the winter turns out warm and snowless. I'd put better odds on a severe period of winter weather or at least cold during Jan. and possibly Feb. as well.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 18, 2018 14:13:42 GMT -6
I never expected December to be very cold or snowy especially after how wintry November was. We were due for a respite. I always expected this January to be cold and snowy. Just the opposite of what Dave was thinking. Let's see how this plays out. One thing that worries me is that we rarely see good winters after cold and snowy November's. exactly. I have no actual science to back this up, but as soon as November got cold & snowy, I immediately thought about the winter of '06-'07. Big ice storm and cold in late November and then................nada. I just hope those woolly bear caterpillars I saw in Pana, IL weren't right. Rough start followed by nothing until the very end when it gets rough again. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 18, 2018 14:34:36 GMT -6
I've liked the setup for New Years Eve/New Years for awhile.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2018 14:45:24 GMT -6
I've liked the setup for New Years Eve/New Years for awhile. That seems to be the period when a large scale pattern change begins to occur so a storm around then would make sense. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2018 14:56:37 GMT -6
exactly. I have no actual science to back this up, but as soon as November got cold & snowy, I immediately thought about the winter of '06-'07. Big ice storm and cold in late November and then................nada. I just hope those woolly bear caterpillars I saw in Pana, IL weren't right. Rough start followed by nothing until the very end when it gets rough again. That is all I had in chesterfield for most of the fall. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 18, 2018 15:03:10 GMT -6
I am still not totally throwing in the !Drying Cloth! on a white christmas... although I admit it is the equivalent to a weather "hail Mary" The GFS has some prettt healthy looking shortwaves as does the euro between Sunday and Tuesday. The problem is the timing and location changes from model to model and run to run. Rather than blanket the entire period with a winter mix...and rather than get everyone's hopes up... I have elected not to mention it in the public forecast for now. That said, I could see a shot of snow...changing to rain sometime in the Sunday night to Tuesday morning time frame. There is a fairly strong high pressure over the eastern US that will be punching in some dry low level air that may be just enough to start precip as snow for a few hours.
It is not something to be excited about... but it is something to watch.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 18, 2018 15:28:11 GMT -6
GFS-FV3 shows a winter storm system beginning on the 27th and lasting for a prolonged period....while the GFS is dry.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 18, 2018 16:37:50 GMT -6
Mood snow, Chris! It may not make the ground white, but snow is snow, you know! It's MO!
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Post by RyanD on Dec 18, 2018 16:47:16 GMT -6
I never expected December to be very cold or snowy especially after how wintry November was. We were due for a respite. I always expected this January to be cold and snowy. Just the opposite of what Dave was thinking. Let's see how this plays out. One thing that worries me is that we rarely see good winters after cold and snowy November's. exactly. I have no actual science to back this up, but as soon as November got cold & snowy, I immediately thought about the winter of '06-'07. Big ice storm and cold in late November and then................nada. Not to mention just a few years ago when we saw two small (2" type snows) Nov snows and then winter didn't return until Feb. I think that was 2015? I also believe that snow and bitter cold in early November of 1991 was followed by a wimpy winter. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 18, 2018 17:51:57 GMT -6
Glenn is reporting a tornado sighting in Washington state west of the Seattle/Tacoma area on the Olympic peninsula. Rather unusual occurrence.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 18, 2018 17:59:24 GMT -6
I agree that this winter is unlikely to be warm and snowless.if we dont see a pattern change the idea of a bookend winter is still on the table.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2018 18:16:49 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen seems to think that the effects of the SSW will likely start being felt in mid January, which is what some here have thought. There could be a more immediate effect, but he's not sure what that would be yet. He is siding with a displacement of the polar vortex rather than a split,but that could change obviously. The GFS has the strongest warming, other models not as much. Should lead to a colder eastern US when we start feeling it. I hope we aren't on the western edge of the cold while the east coast gets historic blizzard after historic blizzard. The west should get cold with possible arctic intrusion out there later in the month he says also. Every model that I've seen brings the 0*C isotherm across the pole. And today's runs actually split the vortex with one lobe moving towards Eurasia and the other towards Newfoundland/New England. So this SSW event looks like almost a lock at this point and a very strong one at that. I do agree that the middle of Jan. looks like the focus for the effects of it. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 18, 2018 20:43:41 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 18, 2018 21:20:27 GMT -6
We'll be inside the D7 window for the Christmas forecast starting after the 12Z runs tomorrow. I will say that the Euro, UKMET, CMC, and ICON all show a shortwave that could influence the Christmas forecast.
In the extended range the EPS and GEFS have a very strong signal for troughing to the west and ridging to the east. As of right now odds favor us being closer to the ridge and underneath its warming influence. Beginning with the 12Z EPS and 18Z GEFS they both now have a cohesive surface low on or around D9 (the 27th) so I'll call this a moderate signal for a mid latitude cyclone out on the extended range. After this first hypothetical mid latitude cyclone there is a weak signal that is suggestive of further activity towards the new year. I have to be honest though. I'm not liking how how the ensembles hold back the troughing to our west, but there's plenty of time for big adjustments.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2018 23:24:10 GMT -6
I really wouldn't expect anything but rain until we get a pattern change in 2-3 weeks.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2018 5:50:34 GMT -6
I agree with Snowman on his comment. In about 2-3 weeks hopefully we start to see some good sustainable cold air in the pattern.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 19, 2018 6:00:41 GMT -6
I really wouldn't expect anything but rain until we get a pattern change in 2-3 weeks. Shoooooot isn't that what somebody said about Christmas week 2-3 weeks ago.... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 19, 2018 7:02:00 GMT -6
All models show a decent shortwave affecting the area on Christmas Eve with the chance of rain to snow. Chris alluded to that...wouldn't stick around long with next day temps in the 40's but could sneak up on us and at least put us in the Holiday spirit.
I still would like to see the EPO go negative, and it has trended slightly in the right direction. The amount of cold building across Canada in 5-7 days is very impressive though. We may be starting to see the signs of turning it around eventually.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 19, 2018 7:03:56 GMT -6
Washington Post has gone to a "let's see if we can get everyone to freak out" story. In the ''whatever it's worth' department. But I'm betting all kinds of smaller newspapers and electronic media outlets will pick the story up as a 100% certainty Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by JanuaryI'm not sure about the everyone freaked out part of this. It's basically talking a lot about what a lot of the discussion has been around here lately and even talking about the same scientist. They're not saying this is a certainty. You read the whole article and you get the picture. Could happen and they talked about what some of the possibilities are. I'm not really sure what's wrong with an article about that except maybe it came from a paper you didn't like. I think it is a pretty good article if you actually read it. I guess it's all ethical for us to sit here and say oh, it looks like, it looks like, oh my gosh look what Cohen is saying. Papers can't do that, huh? Let's not talk about science in print. I swear the print media is in a damned if you do damned if you don't situation now. I'm glad I subscribe to several of the major print news organizations because they at least investigate and use credible sources. Hell, all media is under fire now, but blogosphere, Twitter, and of course Fox, is to be trusted. One of the things that happens with these articles is when they go to the other newspapers somebody slaps a real sexy headline on it and of course the ridicule continues but nobody reads the articles, they just read the headlines. We have a short attention span. No wonder Twitter appeals to some of us. The headline even has the word could in it. I'm sorry but trashing this article for any reason just shows a bias. It's a good article. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2018 7:32:27 GMT -6
I like the last days of December for a chance at a winter storm.
The storm around the 27th is a cutter to our west.
After that though, things will quickly trend towards cold and maybe we can get back in gear.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 19, 2018 7:55:08 GMT -6
Washington Post has gone to a "let's see if we can get everyone to freak out" story. In the ''whatever it's worth' department. But I'm betting all kinds of smaller newspapers and electronic media outlets will pick the story up as a 100% certainty Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by JanuaryI'm not sure about the everyone freaked out part of this. It's basically talking a lot about what a lot of the discussion has been around here lately and even talking about the same scientist. They're not saying this is a certainty. You read the whole article and you get the picture. Could happen and they talked about what some of the possibilities are. I'm not really sure what's wrong with an article about that except maybe it came from a paper you didn't like. I think it is a pretty good article if you actually read it. I guess it's all ethical for us to sit here and say oh, it looks like, it looks like, oh my gosh look what Cohen is saying. Papers can't do that, huh? Let's not talk about science in print. I swear the print media is in a damned if you do damned if you don't situation now. I'm glad I subscribe to several of the major print news organizations because they at least investigate and use credible sources. Hell, all media is under fire now, but blogosphere, Twitter, and of course Fox, is to be trusted. One of the things that happens with these articles is when they go to the other newspapers somebody slaps a real sexy headline on it and of course the ridicule continues but nobody reads a damn articles they just read the headlines. We have a short attention span. No wonder Twitter appeals to some of us. The headline even has the word could in it. I'm sorry but trashing this article for any reason just shows a bias. It's a good article. It could also rain chickens. At least that would warrant a headline. You are assuming I have political motivations. Even to the point of deciding my political views. You also make the assumption that I didn't read the entire article (which is not true) based on nothing but YOUR OWN bias and then proceed to talk down to me based on those assumptions. When you assume... My point is that 40 years ago all the "what ifs" the article stipulates were described as "winter" and merited no headlines except in extremes. Is there anything mentioned as a potential in the article that hasn't happened previously? Nope. So why a headline? |
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