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Post by bdgwx on Dec 16, 2018 21:03:14 GMT -6
I think there's too much light pollution in the metro area.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2018 21:26:17 GMT -6
Just went out to look for it as my skies are pretty good down here for that sort of thing but can't see anything. Crazy thing is though a shooting star went across the sky just as I was getting ready to go in.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2018 21:31:54 GMT -6
After reading about it, it seems the meteor I saw could be associated with the comet. Cool!
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Post by RyanD on Dec 16, 2018 21:34:11 GMT -6
It's 30th the size of Comet Hale-Bopp. That explains a lot. I'm looking next the pleiades and see nothing. This is a dinky comet but it's making a close approach which is cool. I'm going to keep looking. I have fairly dark skies where I live so it should be visible with binoculars if it is indeed a magnitude 3.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 16, 2018 21:38:01 GMT -6
Kind of hard to see... but this is what I got off my phone  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2018 21:40:38 GMT -6
Kind of hard to see... but this is what I got off my phone You must be neighbors with ajd446...they say elevation helps. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 16, 2018 21:46:38 GMT -6
oh boy...  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 16, 2018 21:47:24 GMT -6
Lol.
I have clear skies with heavy snow and 0 visiblity at 115 degrees. There a gust north south wind at 85mph. I also jave moderate rain and grapefruit sized hail with continuous ball lightning. Crazy a$$ sh1t going on in u town.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 16, 2018 22:37:09 GMT -6
Kind of hard to see... but this is what I got off my phone Post of the year!! Lol |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2018 0:19:06 GMT -6
That was hilarious!!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2018 6:33:51 GMT -6
Kind of hard to see... but this is what I got off my phone I cant seem to make it out. Can you put a circle around it or something? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2018 6:45:13 GMT -6
Meanwhile in wx im not seeing any real chg in the pattern anytime soon on the gfs but i wldnt expect to either. With teleconnections trending positive, the pattern change i thought wld happen over the holidays doesnt seem as likely and we may have to depend on surprise snows from one of these southern lows that are not predictable beyond just a day or two ahead of time for the next few weeks. Next up is is the stratospheric warming but the impact of that is beyond the foreseeable future. Christmas day looks dry with temps in the lower 40s. There is an uptick of activity that week but cold air looks to be locked well to the north so we may hv to rely on dynamic cooling or a temporary phase but what im looking at is a strong pacific onshore flow that wont give up, although fantasy range does show a ridge developing over the east.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2018 6:57:56 GMT -6
I was able to view the comet through 10x50 binoculars and the reflector telescope. Last night it was about a degree below and a half degree left of Pleiades...if you look just below it there is three stars in a triangle and the bottom two pointed directly at it. I was not able to pick out a distinct tail but the hazy blue glow is unmistakable once you see it.
Coz's camera is better than mine! I really need to upgrade my phone...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 17, 2018 8:05:49 GMT -6
Will it be viewable again tonight? If we can find it....
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 17, 2018 8:06:32 GMT -6
Meanwhile in wx im not seeing any real chg in the pattern anytime soon on the gfs but i wldnt expect to either. With teleconnections trending positive, the pattern change i thought wld happen over the holidays doesnt seem as likely and we may have to depend on surprise snows from one of these southern lows that are not predictable beyond just a day or two ahead of time for the next few weeks. Next up is is the stratospheric warming but the impact of that is beyond the foreseeable future. Christmas day looks dry with temps in the lower 40s. There is an uptick of activity that week but cold air looks to be locked well to the north so we may hv to rely on dynamic cooling or a temporary phase but what im looking at is a strong pacific onshore flow that wont give up, although fantasy range does show a ridge developing over the east. Ugh..... |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 17, 2018 9:07:34 GMT -6
Meanwhile in wx im not seeing any real chg in the pattern anytime soon on the gfs but i wldnt expect to either. With teleconnections trending positive, the pattern change i thought wld happen over the holidays doesnt seem as likely and we may have to depend on surprise snows from one of these southern lows that are not predictable beyond just a day or two ahead of time for the next few weeks. Next up is is the stratospheric warming but the impact of that is beyond the foreseeable future. Christmas day looks dry with temps in the lower 40s. There is an uptick of activity that week but cold air looks to be locked well to the north so we may hv to rely on dynamic cooling or a temporary phase but what im looking at is a strong pacific onshore flow that wont give up, although fantasy range does show a ridge developing over the east. Chris showed a 6-10 day forecast map for temp and precip this morning. Warmer to much warmer for us with rain. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 17, 2018 9:44:38 GMT -6
We've been getting some good reads from the ensembles (particularly the EPS) out towards D10 this season. And once again we have a signal for active weather somewhere in the CONUS on or around the 27th. Being 10 days out I'm only going to classify this is a weak signal despite both the EPS and GEFS showing a cohesive/closed 850mb low. If the 12Z ensembles continue to show troughing and activity then I may start taking it more seriously.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2018 10:16:38 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2018 11:14:50 GMT -6
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 17, 2018 11:49:24 GMT -6
I mean, it flipped to less favorable outta nowhere. Is it not out of the question that it could just flip back? I'm no expert on teleconnections, but it seems it has not been very reliable when it comes to its forecast. So why couldn't it flip back? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2018 12:34:47 GMT -6
The pattern looks to be pretty stagnant until the SSW event starts to unfold. Models bring the 0*C isotherm at 10mb across the pole at D10...amazing burst of warming!
What is Cohen saying about this? It's gotta be a near record or record breaking event...
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 17, 2018 12:43:37 GMT -6
Al Roker showed a parade of storms from Russia across to America! Which direction they’ll go and whether it’ll be cold enough for frozen will be another forecast, not from me!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2018 13:28:07 GMT -6
The pattern looks to be pretty stagnant until the SSW event starts to unfold. Models bring the 0*C isotherm at 10mb across the pole at D10...amazing burst of warming! What is Cohen saying about this? It's gotta be a near record or record breaking event... His blog will update later today. He has been hedging toward this producing more cold than snow for the eastern U.S. |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 17, 2018 14:19:07 GMT -6
The pattern looks to be pretty stagnant until the SSW event starts to unfold. Models bring the 0*C isotherm at 10mb across the pole at D10...amazing burst of warming! What is Cohen saying about this? It's gotta be a near record or record breaking event... His blog will update later today. He has been hedging toward this producing more cold than snow for the eastern U.S. We kinda need some cold. |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 17, 2018 16:07:29 GMT -6
Good news out of the long range forecast discussion. Although they are still forecasting a pacific firehose, they are mentioning the MJO weakening, and a ridge starting to build off the west coast. Both are required for us to see anything less than 40 degrees with clear skies for highs.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 17, 2018 16:59:07 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS are still showing troughing to the west and ridging to the east past D8. Both are showing a persistent long wave style troughing event. This is sometimes either an indication that pulses of energy/vorticity will ripple through the long wave or that the timing of a larger pulse of energy/vorticity is spread out over a larger range of lead times. There's no way to tell what that means or when it might effect us exactly because it can play out in a lot of different ways, but at least there is a signal there for active weather. Again, this is in reference to the period after Christmas. This pattern may be getting a nudge from the sudden stratospheric warming event that BRTN has been talking about. The stratospheric flow becomes easterly over the Pacific Northwest and Alaska area which may be trying to help push down the potential vorticity from the stratospheric into the troposphere. That is one hell of SSW event getting ready to take place. Hopefully I can learn more about how these SSW events influence the troposphere. I'll definitely be reading Cohen's blog in the next few days.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Dec 17, 2018 18:56:43 GMT -6
We'll be gone racing, at Daytona International Speedway, from 12/26-1/3, guaranteed  , that's when something is going to happen, when I'm gone and the plow truck is sitting empty. I already emptied the hopper in the Tornado spreader. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2018 0:48:20 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen seems to think that the effects of the SSW will likely start being felt in mid January, which is what some here have thought. There could be a more immediate effect, but he's not sure what that would be yet. He is siding with a displacement of the polar vortex rather than a split,but that could change obviously. The GFS has the strongest warming, other models not as much. Should lead to a colder eastern US when we start feeling it.
I hope we aren't on the western edge of the cold while the east coast gets historic blizzard after historic blizzard.
The west should get cold with possible arctic intrusion out there later in the month he says also.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2018 2:28:13 GMT -6
Dr. Cohen seems to think that the effects of the SSW will likely start being felt in mid January, which is what some here have thought. There could be a more immediate effect, but he's not sure what that would be yet. He is siding with a displacement of the polar vortex rather than a split,but that could change obviously. The GFS has the strongest warming, other models not as much. Should lead to a colder eastern US when we start feeling it. I hope we aren't on the western edge of the cold while the east coast gets historic blizzard after historic blizzard. The west should get cold with possible arctic intrusion out there later in the month he says also. The east coast has to get atleast one “once in a lifetime” blizzard every year. That’s been standard protocol the past several winters |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2018 4:44:09 GMT -6
Dave's December forecast not looking to great. Above avg snow and below normal temps, and a white Christmas. No, No and...no.
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, that's when something is going to happen, when I'm gone and the plow truck is sitting empty. I already emptied the hopper in the Tornado spreader.