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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 21:37:11 GMT -6
It's definitely probably going to be a real trends that should be warmer a little further north because the models already 00 z show more Northern stream power coming down with this as it starts to phase.
this will only add to the deformation zone as this thing pulls away if it's more powerful at the mid levels
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2019 21:52:09 GMT -6
The 850s on the Icon stay below 0 the entire time, maybe near 0 briefly. On the site weathermodels it prints out more snow..
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2019 21:58:45 GMT -6
Boom
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 22:00:20 GMT -6
The 00z GFS is cold and explosive through hour 96
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 7, 2019 22:02:10 GMT -6
GFS looking good
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2019 22:02:51 GMT -6
The high pressure actually back builds beautifully.
I grow less concerned about temps by the minute.
Overcome the dry air and declare victory...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 22:05:32 GMT -6
Haven't seen the final qpf but the GFS is going to be warning level snow for the Southern 1/2 of the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2019 22:07:35 GMT -6
The high pressure actually back builds beautifully. I grow less concerned about temps by the minute. Overcome the dry air and declare victory... Ya its easily all snow on the Euro and GFS. Mixing really dosent seem like it will be an issue. The dry air is a concern but this thing has more than enough moisture to overcome it |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 7, 2019 22:13:54 GMT -6
Friv pointed out the good PWs... and the depth of the DGZ- should be very effcient.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2019 22:15:18 GMT -6
Gfs has chilled out a bit on amounts but we expected that. It looks great and like a real nice system for a lot of us.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2019 22:15:59 GMT -6
Any snow will stick around for a couple days too as the warm air is slow to take hold.
I'm jealous.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 7, 2019 22:18:55 GMT -6
It's not a bad run on the GFS. I'd say QPF is 25% less overall vs the 12Z cycle. But, it still supports an advisory level event for the metro area. This morning I said I thought there was low-to-medium confidence in a snow event near us. The GFS didn't abandon ship or anything, but I'm still hesitant to up my confidence any more than that at this point. It is encouraging that this thing didn't go poof on the GFS this run. Remember, we've seen storms completely disappear at the 72 hour mark before. It happens.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 7, 2019 22:22:00 GMT -6
00z ggem is beautiful.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2019 22:23:53 GMT -6
Another reason I hope this happens...it'll actually be on the ground for more than 4 hours lol. Couple days at least which would be nice.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 22:28:15 GMT -6
Has 8-12 for the Southern 1/4. And 6-9" from I70 to the Southern 1/4. 3-6 North of 70 |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 22:30:06 GMT -6
Has 8-12 for the Southern 1/4. And 6-9" from I70 to the Southern 1/4. 3-6 North of 70 Edit: That 6" line is like Troy mo to Brighton. 8" mark is 64/40 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 7, 2019 22:34:10 GMT -6
This setup kind of reminds me of a storm from 2009 or 2010. Just more widespread. At college in Cape we had like 10 inches, then 3-6 stg and Perryville. I don't remember the northern extent of it though. That was a flat wave similar to this though this one may still have the potential of more phasing which could help totals on the backside.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 22:39:52 GMT -6
This setup kind of reminds me of a storm from 2009 or 2010. Just more widespread. At college in Cape we had like 10 inches, then 3-6 stg and Perryville. I don't remember the northern extent of it though. That was a flat wave similar to this though this one may still have the potential of more phasing which could help totals on the backside. I think Belleville had 2.5". I'll check the arvhives. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 7, 2019 22:40:55 GMT -6
We are so overdue for a really nice deep snow! If this happens, it’ll be so great! Just wish there was some long lasting cold to kill the bugs that are still alive! But glad it’s coming hopefully! I’ll be cheering!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 7, 2019 22:50:31 GMT -6
I'd like to see this come north a bit more. Put me in the prime snow zone. Screw the rest of ya. 😉🤣
Goodnight all. Keep the good trend going.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 22:51:44 GMT -6
I'd like to see this come north a bit more. Put me in the prime snow zone. Screw the rest of ya. 😉🤣 Goodnight all. Keep the good trend going. Someone ban him. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 7, 2019 23:09:01 GMT -6
0Z UKMET is still widespread 1"+ QPF amounts in and around the metro area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2019 23:12:47 GMT -6
GEFS is still solid showing a mean 3-5" across the area. Max accumulations are down near Springfield, Mo
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 23:19:04 GMT -6
0Z UKMET is still widespread 1"+ QPF amounts in and around the metro area. Thats awesome. The fv3 stopped at 63 hours on cod weather |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 7, 2019 23:22:30 GMT -6
0Z UKMET is still widespread 1"+ QPF amounts in and around the metro area. The ukmet takes a benchmark track |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 7, 2019 23:28:18 GMT -6
0Z UKMET is still widespread 1"+ QPF amounts in and around the metro area. Thats awesome. The fv3 stopped at 63 hours on cod weather It’s coming out now and looks like a monster |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 7, 2019 23:33:27 GMT -6
Thats awesome. The fv3 stopped at 63 hours on cod weather It’s coming out now and looks like a monster Briefly closes off at 500mb with an easterly wind as it passes by. |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 8, 2019 0:23:12 GMT -6
Is whatever it decides to be, starting on Sat at some point, or Friday?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 0:24:09 GMT -6
Should start Friday evening.
Euro is a good'n'
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 0:25:37 GMT -6
Warning criteria for a good chunk of area on euro. Looks a lot like 12z
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