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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 0:26:24 GMT -6
Ya euro is still a near warning level thumping of WAA snow
5-7” across the board
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Post by jeepers on Jan 8, 2019 0:27:36 GMT -6
Thanks 99. Have a kid that is flying out at 5pm that day, want to love this if it happens, not sweat it
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 0:32:11 GMT -6
Should start Friday evening. Euro is a good'n' A good what? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 0:47:15 GMT -6
a good one. good 'n'  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2019 0:52:03 GMT -6
a good one. good 'n' In this case hopefully Good 'n Plenty. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 1:21:29 GMT -6
a good one. good 'n' It's the most realistic evolution I've seen so far out of the models. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 1:46:03 GMT -6
Ensemble mean for euro is 4+ inches for about the whole area..up from 12z.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 1:50:06 GMT -6
92% chance of 1", 70% of 3" 12% of 6" in st louis. odds increase some the further south.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 2:03:28 GMT -6
Ya the euro ensembles are rock solid. They would advertise a high end advisory event for the metro and warning event for the southern counties
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 2:03:46 GMT -6
It's definitely trending better for being a lock.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 2:16:22 GMT -6
Big model day Tuesday. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 2:49:30 GMT -6
out of 51 EPS members, 45 have a minimum of 2" in St Louis. Quite a few have much more.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 3:51:00 GMT -6
Up to 70% snow chance Friday night, 60% Saturday. Still have rain with the snow during the days Friday and Saturday.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 3:58:24 GMT -6
Up to 70% snow chance Friday night, 60% Saturday. Still have rain with the snow during the days Friday and Saturday. It is too early to pin down exact snow amounts this far out, plus the model solutions have varied a lot over the past 24 hours which leads to a low confidence forecast. That being said the trend is leaning toward accumulating snow across much of our area Friday night and Saturday which would impact travel. Preliminary total snow amount forecasts have 2 to 4 inches possible across northeast and central MO and west central IL with 4 to 6 inches possible across east central and southeast MO and southwest IL. Dry conditions with seasonal temperatures are expected Sunday through Monday as a large and strong 1035-1040 mb surface ridge moves through the region. GKS |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:04:15 GMT -6
Snippet from the morning disco..looks good.
Looking at thickness forecasts and
model sounding forecasts it appears that the precipitation type will
be mainly snow with evaporative cooling causing temperatures to
lower Friday afternoon and evening as the low-mid levels saturate.
Could not rule out a period of sleet initially across southeast MO
Friday afternoon. At this time it appears that the higher QPF will
be across southeast MO and southwest IL and hence the greater snow
accumulation amounts. It is too early to pin down exact snow amounts
this far out, plus the model solutions have varied a lot over the
past 24 hours which leads to a low confidence forecast. That being
said the trend is leaning toward accumulating snow across much of
our area Friday night and Saturday which would impact travel.
Preliminary total snow amount forecasts have 2 to 4 inches possible
across northeast and central MO and west central IL with 4 to 6
inches possible across east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL. Dry conditions with seasonal temperatures are expected Sunday
through Monday as a large and strong 1035-1040 mb surface ridge
moves through the region.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:04:47 GMT -6
Lol...friv beat me to it
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:05:42 GMT -6
6z GFS looking good. Maybe slightly higher totals than oz
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 4:12:43 GMT -6
OMFG.
THE 06Z GFS IS AMAZING!
EPICOSITY
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:14:43 GMT -6
lol
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2019 4:15:37 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 4:17:02 GMT -6
The remarkable part is how widespread the major snows are. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 4:18:54 GMT -6
The best part is this is looking like a whiff for the NEUS |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 4:38:20 GMT -6
How in the hell does the ukmet have 12-16" for the immediate metro.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:43:41 GMT -6
haha,,uk met
I say UK
you say...
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 4:45:59 GMT -6
haha,,uk met I say UK you say... Crazy uncle |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:50:22 GMT -6
6z GEM has over 30 hrs of snow..much of it moderate or more. lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 4:50:55 GMT -6
I think Chris needs to give us his thoughts.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 5:35:27 GMT -6
The 6z FV3 has a foot along I44 from Springfield to St Louis. That would be nice, lol.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 6:00:42 GMT -6
Ya I seen that 06z data on gfs and fv3 being the higher totals north some. With a good strip of heavier totals on the fv3 coming up I-44. NICE!!!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 6:02:34 GMT -6
Seeing 99 post more positively and frivs post more in general on here good things are happening with the data output. Lol
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