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Post by mchafin on Dec 6, 2018 22:24:58 GMT -6
Look at the RGEM for this weekend! It's like Missouri's southern border is just a big wall with Humpty Dumpty (the 1040MB High) just sitting on it blowing his dry-air head off saying, "No soup for you! NEXT!"
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 6, 2018 22:45:27 GMT -6
Isn't that more of a New Madrid Low??  Don't live in Missouri, never heard of it... Must be one of those places nobody lives. 00z gfs is further west with the storm. With the euro east and the ggem in the middle, we have a classic Goldilocks situation unfolding. Borderline temps. Just sayin'. Not exactly a lot of cold air around. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 6, 2018 22:46:29 GMT -6
Ya, what a crazy looking storm this weekend has in store down south. I really could go without ever seeing one of these again in the models. Ugh!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2018 23:12:15 GMT -6
Don't live in Missouri, never heard of it... Must be one of those places nobody lives. 00z gfs is further west with the storm. With the euro east and the ggem in the middle, we have a classic Goldilocks situation unfolding. Borderline temps. Just sayin'. Not exactly a lot of cold air around. The lead wave gets the cold air close enough. If you are in the right spot, the rapidly deepening storm will do the rest. Most will not be in the right spot, but the potential here is huge. Probably have tornadoes warnings adjacent to blizzard warnings wherever the storm bombs out. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 6, 2018 23:24:49 GMT -6
By the way Worldserieschampions - not sure if I've done this, but I'm very jealous of your new residency in Chicago. I love Chicago. I spent 9 months working there downtown (in the heart of winter 2009 - COLD! and AWESOME). Have you been to Kinzie Chop House or Rosebud Steakhouse yet? If not, go! Expensive, but my goodness - some of the best New York Strips I've ever had in my life. Also - Yolk makes an awesome brunch. Streeterville is where I spent most of my time, and there is some great food (and bars) there.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 1:08:30 GMT -6
Euro bombs out a low just to our SE. That would be fun
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 7, 2018 5:00:03 GMT -6
Big Arkansas storm is getting smaller
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 6:13:02 GMT -6
Well all models still showing "the bomb" next week. Gfs and gem have us in the wheelhouse whereas euro is just a bit east. Euro spits out 25" in southern Illinois. Not sure I've ever seen that before lol.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 7, 2018 6:48:16 GMT -6
EPS/GEFS continue to support the idea of a storm for someone in very roughly the day 7 time frame. Both show a nice sharp 500mb trough with closing isohypses and a defined surface low in their means...pretty much all you can ask for at this range. Not a lot of cold around however, which could be a good thing or a bad thing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 7, 2018 7:35:28 GMT -6
15* in Brighton with about an inch of snow on the ground.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 7, 2018 7:50:15 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 9:01:53 GMT -6
I see they've already canceled some of the winter storm watches down in OK and AR. Sensible weather forecasts from models in the medium range were terrible on this one. Even ensemble means were no match for Mother Nature on this one. It's a good reminder that it can happen in our neck of the woods too.
I will say it gives me great satisfaction to see these bloggers...cough...Oklahoma Weather Network...cough...eat some crow over posting those graphics showing 20"+ of snow for a large part of OK.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 9:20:37 GMT -6
The evolution of the 500mb pattern on the 0Z EPS and 0Z/6Z GEFS is better than in previous cycles. A blend of these runs puts the MSLP track pretty close to where we want it to be.
Also of interest is the GEFS is already showing a closed isohypse (line of same geopotential height) at hour 192 bisecting MO. The EPS isn't quite there yet but the trough is deep and well defined. That's interesting on an ensemble because the averaging technique tends to "blur" the patterns so if we're already seeing "focus" at this range then that further reinforces the idea that we'll have a substantial system to watch.
And no, I haven't already forgotten how poorly models even the ensembles have handled this weekend's system. It's possible this ends up being a false signal, but I don't think so. I still maintain that ensemble forecasting is the most reliable and consistent means of making forecasts beyond 3 days and especially 5 days.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 7, 2018 9:49:50 GMT -6
i am concerned abt the amt of cold air avlble with next weekend. the 06 gfs looked like some cold air in the core of the upper level, but qpfs prolly include a high pct of rain.plenty of time for this to evolve. am amazed at how active southern track is. im comfortable with my current thinking of a cold and snowy pattern coming up late this month and continuing into january.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 10:02:27 GMT -6
I do agree with wsc that if this thing bombs like the models show, it will pull in the cold that lurks to the north and also create some of its own. The lead wave a couple days before could serve to "tug" just enough cold down from the north. Now, it might be 50 degrees the following day but we can't be picky.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 10:14:14 GMT -6
I do agree with wsc that if this thing bombs like the models show, it will pull in the cold that lurks to the north and also create some of its own. The lead wave a couple days before could serve to "tug" just enough cold down from the north. Now, it might be 50 degrees the following day but we can't be picky. 12z ggem is a monster... Just a hair west of where we all need it (which is fine because the euro is a tad too far east). But you can see how it wraps the cold air in. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 10:18:31 GMT -6
GFS will probably be west too by the look of the 500 vort at 150 hr.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 10:26:18 GMT -6
GFS will probably be west too by the look of the 500 vort at 150 hr. It is really closing to being a great run. Everything points to a major storm this time next week. We can refine the details as we get closer. Most importantly, let's keep the euro looking good. As it goes, the weather goes. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 7, 2018 10:26:27 GMT -6
I just feel like I've seen this scenario 50 times and we always end up with rain to cold. I really hope I'm wrong but that is where my gut is leading me. I mean GFS is showing this thing getting down to 995 and it's still in the mid 40's as far as surface temps go.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 7, 2018 10:27:33 GMT -6
I do agree with wsc that if this thing bombs like the models show, it will pull in the cold that lurks to the north and also create some of its own. The lead wave a couple days before could serve to "tug" just enough cold down from the north. Now, it might be 50 degrees the following day but we can't be picky. 12z ggem is a monster... Just a hair west of where we all need it (which is fine because the euro is a tad too far east). But you can see how it wraps the cold air in. What website do you use for GGEM? I use pivotal but am always so far behind when it comes to GGEM |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 7, 2018 10:29:19 GMT -6
Brtn has said it before and I agree that any snow before December 15th is a bonus. Most of our snow comes after that, however, the storm next week will be close to that 15th mark..how coincidental. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 10:30:34 GMT -6
I just feel like I've seen this scenario 50 times and we always end up with rain to cold. I really hope I'm wrong but that is where my gut is leading me. I mean GFS is showing this thing getting down to 995 and it's still in the mid 40's as far as surface temps go. This is not the typical rain to cold scenario, though I do understand your concerns. These types of dynamics have the potential to drop our temps from the mid 40's down to the low to mid 30's in a hurry. The intensity of this setup is what makes it different. Damn shame this is a week out because its just model porn at this point. However, I think someone in the Midwest is going to thread the needle and get dumped on, just a matter of who. I echo wsc on the Euro...learned the hard way this last time lol. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 7, 2018 10:30:55 GMT -6
Hard to imagine temps being that warm in mid Dec with that GFS track (it's closing off all the way up to 250)... but what do I know I was fairly confident this weekend's system was going to pull further north.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 10:33:03 GMT -6
12z ggem is a monster... Just a hair west of where we all need it (which is fine because the euro is a tad too far east). But you can see how it wraps the cold air in. What website do you use for GGEM? I use pivotal but am always so far behind when it comes to GGEM I use Tropical Tidbits for everything but the euro. Weather.us will get you the euro for free, but has recently become inundated with ads. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 7, 2018 10:34:22 GMT -6
Hard to imagine temps being that warm in mid Dec with that GFS track (it's closing off all the way up to 250)... but what do I know I was fairly confident this weekend's system was going to pull further north. A lot of us were. North is always the move unless we need it. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 7, 2018 10:35:53 GMT -6
GEM definitely looks more realistic.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 7, 2018 10:37:14 GMT -6
That vort on hour 168 of GEM is something.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 10:40:03 GMT -6
Once again the GFS makes a mid latitude cyclone. I'll take it.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 10:43:54 GMT -6
What website do you use for GGEM? I use pivotal but am always so far behind when it comes to GGEM I use Tropical Tidbits for everything but the euro. Weather.us will get you the euro for free, but has recently become inundated with ads.I noticed that a couple days ago. Makes me wonder if it won't be free much longer. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 10:46:34 GMT -6
Hard to imagine temps being that warm in mid Dec with that GFS track (it's closing off all the way up to 250)... but what do I know I was fairly confident this weekend's system was going to pull further north. GFS has been too warm in the extended this year. Which is the opposite of what we've seen in years past. The cold air has staying power this winter. |
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