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Post by cozpregon on Dec 7, 2018 10:55:18 GMT -6
12z ggem is a monster... Just a hair west of where we all need it (which is fine because the euro is a tad too far east). But you can see how it wraps the cold air in. What website do you use for GGEM? I use pivotal but am always so far behind when it comes to GGEM COD Meteorology now has it |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 11:31:06 GMT -6
The 12z GEFS mean is a 996 Memphis low for the late next week storm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2018 11:42:03 GMT -6
The 12z GEFS mean is a 996 Memphis low for the late next week storm Well that's fun. Super GFS (I guess that's what we are calling it) is pretty much perfect late next week. What oh what could POSSIBLY go wrong haha. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 11:45:35 GMT -6
The 12z GEFS mean is a 996 Memphis low for the late next week storm Well that's fun. Super GFS (I guess that's what we are calling it) is pretty much perfect late next week. What oh what could POSSIBLY go wrong haha. Im trying to keep my expectations low and not get sucked in at this range, but the models are making it difficult right now
And ya the super GFS run is what dreams are made of around here
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 7, 2018 11:50:18 GMT -6
I am so glad they have a composite with precip type for the Super GFS on PW now.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 11:51:56 GMT -6
I haven't looked at how the Euro evolves the pattern but on the GFS and FV3 you can see two distinct PV lobes at the tropopause that induce cyclogenesis in the baroclinic zone. We'll need to keep an eye on that 1st system crossing the Rocky Mountains at around HR120 to see what it leaves behind in its wake. It's the 2nd system we are most focused on right now.
The FV3 is more robust with both PV anomalies. It showing the 2nd system getting wrapped up good with 3 closed isohypses at 500mb and even gets the 250mb level closed off as well.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 11:59:00 GMT -6
Somewhat concerning is that relative humidity trajectories are showing the saturation originating from the north. The 1st system scours out the moisture that our 2nd system could otherwise be taking advantage of. That's why there isn't very much isentropic precipitation showing up on the leading edge. And yes, I know I'm over analyzing a storm that's more than 5 days away. But this a weather forum...it's what we do  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 7, 2018 12:18:44 GMT -6
Does anybody have the link where you could go back and look at historical weather maps?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 12:37:58 GMT -6
12z euro looks pretty epic on the 24 hour charts...
Near perfect Memphis low next week at this time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 12:46:16 GMT -6
The euro looks very similar to the super GFS
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2018 13:00:05 GMT -6
if there was cold air in place we would be talking a blizzard potential. But being here where we are, we're talking 80% rain and maybe 20% snow, the first part of which well melt from warm wet ground and marginal temps. Count me as not too excited at the moment.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 7, 2018 13:01:50 GMT -6
I go out of town thursday to pick my son up... then head to chicago for a wedding. Sounds like a recipe for snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 13:06:41 GMT -6
The euro looks very similar to the super GFS That deformation zone on the euro is beautiful... Drop temps a couple degrees and we are in business. Otherwise it will be as depressing as Christmas 2009. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 13:07:09 GMT -6
if there was cold air in place we would be talking a blizzard potential. But being here where we are, we're talking 80% rain and maybe 20% snow, the first part of which well melt from warm wet ground and marginal temps. Count me as not too excited at the moment. These big lows do a good job generating their own cold air. Mid level temps will not be a problem if the storm unfolds like the FV3-GFS and Euro show. Surface temps might be but dynamic cooling is on our side. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2018 13:18:30 GMT -6
I know about the cooling. Fact remains..most will be rain, lol. These thread the needle perfect setup, track situations are rare around here. Lookslike a 1.25 ".....75" rain, .5" snow..being generous, maybe more like .3. and .2 of that melted. See it a lot. but we have a week to watch
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 7, 2018 13:33:55 GMT -6
Eh, temps are trending downward. Not saying it’ll be 25 degrees, but timing and cloud cover could really help.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 13:55:52 GMT -6
Euro ensembles have a good signal for a strong low to our SE near Cape/Paducah Friday
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 7, 2018 14:33:00 GMT -6
The more I look at the 82 storm the more of a freak it seems. Most storms nowadays we see most of our snow from the deformation band on the backside of the low. We started getting heavy snow back in 82 when the surface low was in The Arklatex. That surface low did not hit Memphis until after midnight. Then, of course, we got into the deformation band. All the thunder and lightning was prior to that in that unbelievable WAA event. It was wild. Heavy snow started and we had lightning within 1/2 hour.
We transitioned from one to the other seamlessly. It's no wonder it's never been repeated. Very few storms do that
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 7, 2018 14:38:29 GMT -6
The euro looks very similar to the super GFS That deformation zone on the euro is beautiful... Drop temps a couple degrees and we are in business. Otherwise it will be as depressing as Christmas 2009. Would STL or Chicago be in business? Or...dare to say...both? |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 14:44:16 GMT -6
Poof...there goes all the winter storm watches for Oklahoma.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 7, 2018 15:23:56 GMT -6
That deformation zone on the euro is beautiful... Drop temps a couple degrees and we are in business. Otherwise it will be as depressing as Christmas 2009. Would STL or Chicago be in business? Or...dare to say...both? Both if temps trend colder. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 7, 2018 15:51:15 GMT -6
alot of pacific influence. this is going to be a typical el nino pattern next weekend. wasted lows so to speak plus models tend to back off on strength with shorter lead times. not sold on anything beyond a rain to cold attm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2018 16:26:33 GMT -6
NWS going with 80% rain/snow POPs 6 days out. Hope that dosent put a jinx on this system like the last one
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2018 16:35:25 GMT -6
Well, they have the word "rain" in there to fall back on. Unlike this weekend which was just snow, lol.
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 7, 2018 16:39:08 GMT -6
Isn't putting a percentage on precipitation chances for an event a week away kind of silly anyway?
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Post by guyfromhecker on Dec 7, 2018 17:03:52 GMT -6
Haven't looked at the drought monitor lately. I was kind of surprised by what I saw when I did. Almost all of the Plains are out of it now
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 7, 2018 20:06:13 GMT -6
This is the forecast for where my mother lives is South Carolina... this would be epic for even us but for them this storm could be paralyzing
Saturday Night
Rain before 11pm, then snow. Areas of fog before 1am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow and freezing rain before 2pm, then snow and sleet between 2pm and 3pm, then freezing rain after 3pm. High near 32. North northeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches
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Post by landscaper on Dec 7, 2018 20:59:13 GMT -6
Yes , I agree Snowman why bother putting 80% chance in the forecast 6-7 days out. That makes no sense to me, we the see how well that worked last week set this time. It’s also funny in southern Missouri they have a Winrer Weather advisory for 1-2” of snow but only a 20% chance iof snow? That precipitation shield is hitting a brick wall and not moving north. I think next week way to many things have to go just perfect for us to get accumulating snow with that set up. I know it’s possible, but many things will have to work out
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 7, 2018 21:24:18 GMT -6
FWIW the 12Z UKMET has the storm in the D7 timeframe as well, but it's pretty far south.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 7, 2018 22:02:46 GMT -6
I finally looked at this system everyone is bantering on about and it's way to warm.
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