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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2019 9:55:13 GMT -6
I could even do a Feb. 1st, 2011 storm again. I think others within the metro would highly disagree though..lol Pass. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 13, 2019 10:00:50 GMT -6
More snow haiku: Gentle snow falling Happy again, so pretty Does not take much, yo Little snow shower Falling on my rain soaked yard
Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah...Meh
Winner, winner, chicken dinner! |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 13, 2019 10:05:30 GMT -6
Good mood snow past 3 hours. No accumulation
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 13, 2019 10:07:16 GMT -6
A flake here and there! Nothing like what we’ve had! Ready for the next one! Bring it on!
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117 
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 13, 2019 10:09:51 GMT -6
Finished with 10.5" in South County. Still cant believe that I was under ~50dbz echos for a brief time while it was all snow yesterday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 10:12:00 GMT -6
I am a big fan of the 12z gfs and ggem.
You guys will not be.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2019 10:12:47 GMT -6
You should be.
We shouldn't be.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 13, 2019 10:12:50 GMT -6
I could even do a Feb. 1st, 2011 storm again. I think others within the metro would highly disagree though..lol Pass. lol..figured that was coming. It was almost all ZR here and over .60 in glaze. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2019 10:13:24 GMT -6
Gfs is still progressive and north with the weekend system. We shall see if the euro wins this battle again.
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Post by yypc on Jan 13, 2019 10:13:37 GMT -6
whats the general timing for that next possible system? Thursday into Friday? Friday into Saturday? Friday to Saturday according to the GFS (which is showing all rain btw) |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 13, 2019 10:19:28 GMT -6
The cold coming from up north will have a lot to do with whether we get liquid or the clear frozen nasty stuff! Obviously! After this beautiful snow, sure hope it isn’t ice!
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 13, 2019 10:20:55 GMT -6
I am a big fan of the 12z gfs and ggem. You guys will not be. Uh oh, the ggem too? It did well with this last system. I guess the Arctic air could force the low further south, we shall see. |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2019 10:21:17 GMT -6
As the GFS sits now, it'll just be dry and cold. I'll take that over rain.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 10:22:52 GMT -6
I am a big fan of the 12z gfs and ggem. You guys will not be. Uh oh, the ggem too? It did well with this last system. I guess the Arctic air could force the low further south, we shall see. It comes down to how the energy ejects. If it digs more, you guys win. If it digs too long, the artic air will crush it south. If it comes out quick like the gfs and to a lesser extent the ggem, then it is a Chicago storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 10:23:01 GMT -6
I’m not a big believer of giving the deterministic runs much weight 5+ days out. The GEFS argues for a further south system than the deterministic GFS is showing
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2019 10:27:31 GMT -6
Reading that while KC only got 4-8" of snow they had 80,000 customers without power. Don't to 15,000 this morning. I didn't hear anything about a significant number of power outages in this area. Thankfully
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 13, 2019 10:39:00 GMT -6
Has been a tendency for next weekends system to be modeled north from kc to chi. My thght is that at that time it didnt have the cold air modeled fully. I do think there may be a compromise and perhaps some of the places that got snow this weekend will get snow next weekend.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2019 10:41:32 GMT -6
More snow, fine. Ice, no. Have to drive to Ohio to take a kid back the following Wednesday. Don’t need the potential drama.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2019 10:47:59 GMT -6
I thought last night's GEM looked more typical of what we'll see.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2019 11:03:29 GMT -6
Both the EPS and GEFS look icy/snowy next weekend to say the least. Rough consensus is for the h85 low to track nearly overhead or just S and the SLP pretty close to our winter storm benchmark(KMEM). If you take these models at face value, it's a significant to major ice storm followed by near-blizzard conditions. Of course, it's nearly a week out so things could and likely will change.
Chris makes a great point about the strength of the arctic airmass and how models generally underestimate that at this range. Just looking at the large scale pattern, it screams major winter storm across the Midwest.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 13, 2019 11:10:02 GMT -6
Both the EPS and GEFS look icy/snowy next weekend to say the least. Rough consensus is for the h85 low to track nearly overhead or just S and the SLP pretty close to our winter storm benchmark(KMEM). If you take these models at face value, it's a significant to major ice storm followed by near-blizzard conditions. Of course, it's nearly a week out so things could and likely will change. Chris makes a great point about the strength of the arctic airmass and how models generally underestimate that at this range. Just looking at the large scale pattern, it screams major winter storm across the Midwest. It sounds similar to the high impact winter storms we used to have several winters ago....heavy snow/ice, followed by strong winds causing blowing/drifting, followed by extreme cold. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 13, 2019 11:14:18 GMT -6
Hope the stores have plenty of supplies for the next storm for everyone! Sure hope it ain’t ice, guys!
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Post by jeepers on Jan 13, 2019 11:15:42 GMT -6
Oh jeebuz
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Post by yypc on Jan 13, 2019 11:16:11 GMT -6
Next weekend looks like a chicago snow to me. Maybe we get some backside light snow on Sunday but no major accumulation, and hopefully no ice.
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Post by lizard7151971 on Jan 13, 2019 11:21:26 GMT -6
Hope the stores have plenty of supplies for the next storm for everyone! Sure hope it ain’t ice, guys! We're having an issue getting ours in. Trucks are halted. We have not had a frozen, dairy or meat truck in 2 days. Same with milk. We did get a grocery truck yesterday. The distribution center has ran out of trailers to fill because the trucks are parked. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2019 11:35:32 GMT -6
Super Gfs has hopped aboard the north train too. Bummer.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Jan 13, 2019 11:35:40 GMT -6
so does it look like next weekend storm snow will be north of us?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 11:38:17 GMT -6
Amazingly the 12z FV3, gfs, and ggem all have another potential major winter storm in the day 9 range.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 11:39:52 GMT -6
Super Gfs has hopped aboard the north train too. Bummer. Gfs ensemble mean is south, so I wouldn't jump ship yet. Also, think models are confused on if this will be a 2 parter with a lead wave going north and some energy wrapping up in the base of the trough. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 11:41:16 GMT -6
Went out to measure after all the rain and junk yesterday and still have 8” of very dense snowpack here.
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