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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2019 11:42:33 GMT -6
I'd say there's still a bit to be worked out, considering that the GFS has the SLP and 850 over the metro (at 06z Sat), while the GGEM has it at the OK panhandle.
EDIT: not even the metro on the GFS--more like northern IL.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 13, 2019 11:44:19 GMT -6
I am a big fan of the 12z gfs and ggem. You guys will not be. Trend has been further north this year. With El Niño not really a player right now, I would say stl is on the edge and even better to the north is in the best chance right now. You can have it over an ice storm here. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 11:45:23 GMT -6
Super Gfs has hopped aboard the north train too. Bummer. Gfs ensemble mean is south, so I wouldn't jump ship yet. Also, think models are confused on if this will be a 2 parter with a lead wave going north and some energy wrapping up in the base of the trough. Timing of the energy ejecting is crucial to. If you want a further north solution you want the energy to eject quickly before the arctic hammer comes down. If you want a further south solution you want the energy to eject later so the cold air is already pressing down |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2019 11:48:28 GMT -6
It's snowing really really good.
Nice day
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2019 11:48:50 GMT -6
Hope the stores have plenty of supplies for the next storm for everyone! Sure hope it ain’t ice, guys! We're going grocery shopping today - our usual day. We don't need bread, eggs or toilet paper. But I hope the swarm of locusts last Friday left us some milk. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 13, 2019 11:50:45 GMT -6
Gfs ensemble mean is south, so I wouldn't jump ship yet. Also, think models are confused on if this will be a 2 parter with a lead wave going north and some energy wrapping up in the base of the trough. Timing of the energy ejecting is crucial to. If you want a further north solution you want the energy to eject quickly before the arctic hammer comes down. If you want a further south solution you want the energy to eject later so the cold air is already pressing down Indeed! I’m not on board with this one like the last one right now. Clearly it’s ejecting faster than the northwest flow in my opinion right now. STL is on the edge of this thing but things can change. It’s not that beautiful 5 days out range just yet though...like the last system when it jumped on board with one solution at day 5 and brought us a grand slam. I’m going to enjoy the snow and do some sledding. Have a great day everyone!!! |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 13, 2019 11:53:05 GMT -6
Looks fairly active, though, for the next couple weeks. Cold air wants to stay and play.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 13, 2019 11:53:51 GMT -6
Hope the stores have plenty of supplies for the next storm for everyone! Sure hope it ain’t ice, guys! We're having an issue getting ours in. Trucks are halted. We have not had a frozen, dairy or meat truck in 2 days. Same with milk. We did get a grocery truck yesterday. The distribution center has ran out of trailers to fill because the trucks are parked. In addition to this the problem after the 82 storm was that trucks couldn't get into the rural areas and collect the milk and eggs from the farms and get them to the processing facilities. The problems existed for about 10 days. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 13, 2019 11:55:42 GMT -6
Looks fairly active, though, for the next couple weeks. Cold air wants to stay and play. Agreed. The northern stream appears loaded with cold air intrusions and lot of potential energy every week or two as modeled on the gfs (as usual) even after the weekend storm towards the end of its run. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 13, 2019 11:57:22 GMT -6
12z GFS certainly a beautiful fantasy not too far out around the 22nd.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 13, 2019 11:58:49 GMT -6
I'm less inclined to give the GFS the benefit of the doubt given it's track record with the last storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 12:09:37 GMT -6
FV3 has widespread 0 degree temps after next week's storm, then another storm, followed by widespread-15 to -25 degree temps lmao.
That is an insane run.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 12:14:03 GMT -6
FV3 has widespread 0 degree temps after next week's storm, then another storm, followed by widespread-15 to -25 degree temps lmao. That is an insane run. Its been absolutely unloading the arctic in its extended for the past week or so |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2019 12:18:11 GMT -6
I agree with snow, the ensemble approach for the next 2 days is Likely your best option. I have no faith in the old gfs, it’s done terrible this year. The gefs and es are south , it all depends on the upstream northern high . If it can set up and force the storm further south that’s what you want.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 13, 2019 12:18:40 GMT -6
I personally am really worried bout ice I st.louis next weekend. Then maybe 1 to 3 inches of wind whipped snow. At the very least a flash freeze risk
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2019 12:24:49 GMT -6
Moderate almost heavy snow here. Better then expected today. Looks like almost an inch has fallen so far to help refresh some of the lost snowpack a bit.
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Post by birddog on Jan 13, 2019 12:27:13 GMT -6
Well I scooped another 2 inches of stuff off the deck and sidewalks.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 12:29:43 GMT -6
12z euro has trended north, but not to the extent of the other models.
Should be a big hit of ice and snow for most.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 13, 2019 12:32:37 GMT -6
It's pouring right now
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2019 12:32:53 GMT -6
Euro still looks good
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 13, 2019 12:38:11 GMT -6
Euro is still a major ice and snowstorm. It seems slightly quicker and flatter this run but that's really trying to split hairs at this range
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2019 12:38:12 GMT -6
Super GFS just lining up winter storms like planes lining up at an airport from Day 8 until the end of the run. Impressive.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 13, 2019 12:40:25 GMT -6
Channel 2+2 said Belleville had 10" from our storm. Which means on top of the 5" we already had assuming that's right we've already met out annual 30 year average snowfall. Making this season half decent so far.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Jan 13, 2019 12:40:44 GMT -6
are we talking about the next week storm being as big as our storm this weekend?
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Post by goutkvols KCMO on Jan 13, 2019 12:48:37 GMT -6
Reading that while KC only got 4-8" of snow they had 80,000 customers without power. Don't to 15,000 this morning. I didn't hear anything about a significant number of power outages in this area. Thankfully I'm not sure about the snow you got down there.The snow here was very wet.KCP&L brought in crews from outta town.I think the number of outages yesterday was 110,000 they still have 75,000 without power now. We got 9 inches where I'm at.The airport is 8 miles from my place and they picked up only 4 inches. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 13, 2019 12:49:06 GMT -6
After the 4th sweeping of snow off the boat cover, I am raising my tally. What had accumulated on the the cover really surprised me. It might have been additional snow overnight, I dont know. I had 1/4" of sleet/mix and additional 1.75" of snow. Real crunchy stuff. I also measured depth and I have 6.75 still. Amaing after all the rain yesterday. So either I missed the amount from the def band last night or there was additional overnight. Either way, it adds a .5" to my total. That makes it go from 8.75" to 9.25". Pretty sure that seems consistent through the area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 13, 2019 12:53:18 GMT -6
Moderate burst of snow in Alton.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 13, 2019 12:58:05 GMT -6
I like the Euro, I do agree we could see rain, ice and snow with this system. It has a lot more cold to work with. Usually with these type of set ups the cold is quicker than modeled.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 13, 2019 12:59:40 GMT -6
Euro is much more organized with the major system for The Weekend. Everyone gets hammered.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 13, 2019 13:00:57 GMT -6
I actually hate the euro lol.
Damn, if it comes out that flat I'm toast.
Oh well, have to think my time is coming with the parade of storms.
Worth mentioning the euro already show 40-45 mph wind gusts.
That could be important depending on precip type.
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