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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 17:19:41 GMT -6
18z GEFS bumped up totals to 6-8” across the metro
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 17:22:46 GMT -6
Chris, here's a good line to use next time someone trolls you like that on FB again.
"I did not achieve this position in life by having some snot-nosed punk leave my cheese out in the wind.".
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 17:24:23 GMT -6
Chris, here's a good line to use next time someone trolls you like that on FB again. "I did not achieve this position in life by having some snot-nosed punk leave my cheese out in the wind.". that might get me fired  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 17:25:23 GMT -6
Interesting decision by Glen to use the 18z NAM as his on air snow forecast
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 17:28:02 GMT -6
The 98 member blend of the 12Z Euro and GFS ensembles is a strike right down the middle of the plate. Normal caveats apply. It's not using a dynamic SLR. It's not an official forecast Yada...yada...yada. I just want to make sure any lurkers out there understand. The forum reports 105 guest viewers right now...  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 17:29:17 GMT -6
By the way, that line comes from Ferris Bueller's Day Off. It's a classic.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2019 17:38:06 GMT -6
Chris, here's a good line to use next time someone trolls you like that on FB again. "I did not achieve this position in life by having some snot-nosed punk leave my cheese out in the wind.". Ok, Mr Rooney |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 17:53:48 GMT -6
Is there any need to worry about plain rain down here? The models wave that line back and forth and it makes me a little nervous.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 18:02:13 GMT -6
What is the Super GFS showing QPF wise? 1" qpf for the entire metro area |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 18:07:08 GMT -6
Is there any need to worry about plain rain down here? The models wave that line back and forth and it makes me a little nervous. That seems pretty unlikely unless something changes dramatically...models seem to be locking in with little run-to-run inconsistency for the most part. The E/SE flow off the ridge will provide dry/cold advection so wetbulbing and dynamic lift/large-scale ascent should keep it frozen I would think. Sleet is definitely a concern down that way though...especially if the more phased solutions like the NAM and EC are realistic. Maybe some ice potential as well but I haven't looked at soundings down that way. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 18:19:52 GMT -6
Interesting decision by Glen to use the 18z NAM as his on air snow forecast The nam is probably a bit over amped. Comparing the name llj to the FV3, ggem, and euro. The euro is a little earlier in the system evolution and therefore inherently weaker but you get the gist. All things being equal the name is going to be to warm and to far North.     |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 18:20:31 GMT -6
18z Euro.Whoa. ![]() |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 18:22:07 GMT -6
18z Euro.Whoa. ![]() Elaborate. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 18:23:32 GMT -6
18z Euro.Whoa. ![]() Elaborate. Rain in St. Gen area. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 18:25:43 GMT -6
foot for almost the whole metro 13 for Stl, Around 10 in your area
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 18:27:59 GMT -6
That's the most pink color I've seen on the euro for here, on a snow map.
QPF is over an inch everywhere with 1.2-1.4 in the metro, lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 18:29:22 GMT -6
That's the most pink color I've seen on the euro for here, on a snow map. QPF is over an inch everywhere with 1.2-1.4 in the metro, lol. Under 2 inches for Chicago? |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 18:32:29 GMT -6
Yep. I just saw the 18Z Euro. It's cookin' up some filet mignon.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 18:33:03 GMT -6
That's the most pink color I've seen on the euro for here, on a snow map. QPF is over an inch everywhere with 1.2-1.4 in the metro, lol. Under 2 inches for Chicago? looks right at 2 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 18:33:52 GMT -6
Yep. I just saw the 18Z Euro. It's cookin' up some filet mignon. That's a Prime Rib special. |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 18:33:58 GMT -6
18z Euro.Whoa. ![]() [b I wonder if the NWS is questioning the decision to discount the Euro in favor of the GFS - |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 18:34:29 GMT -6
It’s pretty interesting the euro is still printing out a foot plus. That’s several runs in a row now. And the EPS gets beefier and beefier every run
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 18:34:37 GMT -6
Under 2 inches for Chicago? looks right at 2 Thanks, at least things look explosive heading towards MLK. Hoping to catch up to you guys in snow that next weekend. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 18:35:16 GMT -6
That model has been very consistent, that with all the other model support I bet you see the GFS start to amp up a little more. The ensemble support is crazy. I really don’t think I have ever seen such a widespread moderate to possibly heavy snow event . Usually one part of the metro area misses out or we have many things that could go wrong. We already have had 12.5” in Wentzville so far this year, it will only take 5” to surpass our yearly average. We were lucky with last storm and I think we’re in a great spot for this one.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2019 18:37:36 GMT -6
Since it's happened before is there any large chance that once the system gets on shoire and gets fully sampled the bottom will drop out of these numbers? And the emotions in the Corner get crushed...
I'm not trying to be a Negative Nellie. But I'm concerned there's some awful high hopes here that may get shattered.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 18:41:59 GMT -6
I assume you're screwing with me. |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 9, 2019 18:42:25 GMT -6
Chris, here's a good line to use next time someone trolls you like that on FB again. "I did not achieve this position in life by having some snot-nosed punk leave my cheese out in the wind.". that might get me fired Hopefully my post earlier wasn’t interpreted in any negative way. Just stating the obvious difference between two different platforms, Facebook and your forum 😊 |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 18:45:57 GMT -6
We don't get as many products with the 18Z Euro so it's a little harder seeing what's going on, but at a glace I'd say 12:1 for the first 0.7 and 6:1 for the last 0.5. That probably averages out to 10:1. It has temperatures going above 0C on Saturday so there will be melting while it's snowing if it's right.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 9, 2019 18:46:30 GMT -6
We need more big storms to get this board hopping! I've seen some names pop up that I haven't seen in a while and/or are New! I hope this is the start of a trend for the rest of the winter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 19:00:18 GMT -6
We don't get as many products with the 18Z Euro so it's a little harder seeing what's going on, but at a glace I'd say 12:1 for the first 0.7 and 6:1 for the last 0.5. That probably averages out to 10:1. It has temperatures going above 0C on Saturday so there will be melting while it's snowing if it's right. That's one of the reasons I've been staying with more moderate amounts with the expectation of compaction and melting during the daylight hours Saturday with light snow rates and borderine temps possible limiting snowfall effeciency. But the good news is that the event peaks overnight so we get a nice base for snow to fall on and will help to keep temps closer to 32*. 3-6" should cover it nicely with potential for some double digits in spots if these juicier runs are legit. The duration and amount of moisture available makes me think that could be realistic, but still not likely. |
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