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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 19:17:37 GMT -6
18z Euro.Whoa. ![]() Elaborate. Stop stressing. The only model that you get screwed by is the nam. And even then it's not really you getting screwed. Just getting a half a foot before what would be a dynamic deformation zone sweeps through. And I promise you the nam is wrong. If you were to get missed to the North. A fundamental shift of the entire system would have to take place. And in that situation well a lot more of us than just you would be getting screwed because that type of fundamental shift would see most of the warm air advection snows be off to our Northwest and none of the models show anything like that. Not even the nam. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 19:23:15 GMT -6
21z SREF mean snowfall at Lambert is 5.5"
Up from 4.5" on the 15z run
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 9, 2019 19:30:24 GMT -6
We need more big storms to get this board hopping! I've seen some names pop up that I haven't seen in a while and/or are New! I hope this is the start of a trend for the rest of the winter. There are a few though that I'm sure a lot of you remember that... cluttered the thread a bit. I'll name one that should spark some memories. The famous mwitt97.  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 9, 2019 19:34:40 GMT -6
We need more big storms to get this board hopping! I've seen some names pop up that I haven't seen in a while and/or are New! I hope this is the start of a trend for the rest of the winter. There are a few though that I'm sure a lot of you remember that... cluttered the thread a bit. I'll name one that should spark some memories. The famous mwitt97. I used to love his snowfall maps đ |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 19:38:53 GMT -6
Stop stressing. The only model that you get screwed by is the nam. And even then it's not really you getting screwed. Just getting a half a foot before what would be a dynamic deformation zone sweeps through. And I promise you the nam is wrong. If you were to get missed to the North. A fundamental shift of the entire system would have to take place. And in that situation well a lot more of us than just you would be getting screwed because that type of fundamental shift would see most of the warm air advection snows be off to our Northwest and none of the models show anything like that. Not even the nam. I'll stop stressing when the hampsters start piling up  . |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 19:47:25 GMT -6
Just my opinion here no pun intended but Iâm really thinking a lot of weather âoutletsâ are downplaying this event too much. Verbatim at this point all models have us in 5â++ and yet not a single watch or advisory is even issued. Who knows maybe this will be another November storm without warning. Seems pretty black and white at this point to me. Even just for the WAA snow itâs a lot of snow for our area nowadays.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2019 19:53:56 GMT -6
Iâm assuming something *may* be issued at the 04:00 update?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 19:55:27 GMT -6
Just my opinion here no pun intended but Iâm really thinking a lot of weather âoutletsâ are downplaying this event too much. Verbatim at this point all models have us in 5â++ and yet not a single watch or advisory is even issued. Who knows maybe this will be another November storm without warning. Seems pretty black and white at this point to me. Even just for the WAA snow itâs a lot of snow for our area nowadays. They have 2 days still lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2019 19:57:34 GMT -6
Just my opinion here no pun intended but Iâm really thinking a lot of weather âoutletsâ are downplaying this event too much. Verbatim at this point all models have us in 5â++ and yet not a single watch or advisory is even issued. Who knows maybe this will be another November storm without warning. Seems pretty black and white at this point to me. Even just for the WAA snow itâs a lot of snow for our area nowadays. This event is still almost 48hrs out...WSWatch will probably be hoisted with tonight or tomorrow morning's updates if the latest data is still showing these higher amounts. You have to remember though, that model snowfall forecasts and QPF coversion doesn't account for mixing or melting/compaction and lower SLRs...and dry air could eat into totals a bit if the dry air hangs on longer which often isn't well forecast by models. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 20:00:16 GMT -6
I think if the models continue on there current path tonight, you will likely see a WSW go out tomorrow morning at 4:00 am. As mentioned, they might not issue a warning due To the long duration of the event.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 20:02:57 GMT -6
There is also the duration question. This is a two day event...and it is over a weekend. There is no problem waiting on a Watch until tomorrow AM...which I believe is actually prudent.
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Post by koll27âWaterloo, IL on Jan 9, 2019 20:06:40 GMT -6
We need more big storms to get this board hopping! I've seen some names pop up that I haven't seen in a while and/or are New! I hope this is the start of a trend for the rest of the winter. There are a few though that I'm sure a lot of you remember that... cluttered the thread a bit. I'll name one that should spark some memories. The famous mwitt97. Remember the whackadoo that kept wishing for a wedge tornado to cut through downtown? He was pretty stable mentally. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 20:10:18 GMT -6
18z rgem looks good, maybe a bit on the north side of guidance.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2019 20:15:26 GMT -6
I could even see the NWS waiting until around midday to issue anything. The STL office is frequently slower to pull the trigger on that sort of thing than Paducah or Spfld, MO
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 20:16:47 GMT -6
Just my opinion here no pun intended but Iâm really thinking a lot of weather âoutletsâ are downplaying this event too much. Verbatim at this point all models have us in 5â++ and yet not a single watch or advisory is even issued. Who knows maybe this will be another November storm without warning. Seems pretty black and white at this point to me. Even just for the WAA snow itâs a lot of snow for our area nowadays. This event is still almost 48hrs out...WSWatch will probably be hoisted with tonight or tomorrow morning's updates if the latest data is still showing these higher amounts. You have to remember though, that model snowfall forecasts and QPF coversion doesn't account for mixing or melting/compaction and lower SLRs...and dry air could eat into totals a bit if the dry air hangs on longer which often isn't well forecast by models. Totally agree on all that but I guess it just brings back what happened to so many people caught off guard in November. There were so many vehicles off the road in just the first couple hours of that event. Would I like to break the dry spell, yes. Does a headline matter for me personally, no because I get it and think we will get whacked one way or another. I guess I just think thatâs the purpose of a watch in that it is a heads up and still can be pulled or converted if it doesnât happen. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 20:17:10 GMT -6
Watch will likely be issued at 4am.
Now, don't they only issue a watch if there's at least a 50% of a warning being issued..ie..reaching criteria? It seems that used be the way it was
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 20:21:18 GMT -6
The NAM is going to be quite a bit less amped up.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 20:21:50 GMT -6
BTW, the WPC has the metro area in a high probability for 4+ inches on day 3.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 20:22:33 GMT -6
The NAM is going to be quite a bit less amped up. Doesn't mean less qpf just not as far North with the mixing/precipitation shield |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 20:26:49 GMT -6
NAM is going to be a great run
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2019 20:28:05 GMT -6
Nam slams the metro
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 20:30:37 GMT -6
It is also warmer for the southern areas pushing the sleet /mix line up I44
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 20:30:45 GMT -6
OMG THE NAM IS PERFECT
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 20:31:16 GMT -6
St Peters gets 24 inches, everyone else 6. ..
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2019 20:32:27 GMT -6
Oh stop lol. 6 to 10 though for all
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 20:32:42 GMT -6
It is also warmer for the southern areas pushing the sleet /mix line up I44 ??! Not seeing that. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 9, 2019 20:34:46 GMT -6
NAM slams how hard?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 20:34:59 GMT -6
It is also warmer for the southern areas pushing the sleet /mix line up I44 Southern counties would have a lot of sleet contamination if the NAM is correct. Almost follows Chrisâs yellow line on his map perfectly |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 20:37:33 GMT -6
Well by noon Saturday it has 10â for everyone besides the far southern sections of the area |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2019 20:38:12 GMT -6
St Peters gets 24 inches, everyone else 6. .. Must be the elevation.........đ¤ˇââď¸ |
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