|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 22:06:57 GMT -6
Once again the FV3 is significantly more beefy with QPF than the operational GFS. And in looking at it's snow depth product the 0Z cycle may even be better than the 18Z cycle. It's definitely in the 1"+ club, but I can't tell exactly how much until it shows up on weathermodels.com.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 22:08:09 GMT -6
It's pretty clear. The GFS is an outlier in terms of moisture.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 22:09:06 GMT -6
With the borderline temperature I have a hard time seeing this being a high impact snow like the January 2014 storm. It may be more like the palm sunday storm. How can we see significant, long lasting accumulation on pavement with temperatures often near or above freezing? If snowfall rates are heavy enough it will overcome any melting that occurs and cool the ground farther at the same time so during the heavy snow rates there should be some slushy or even snow covered at least partially. That said marginal temps will make removal operations easier and chemicals and salts will be very effective. |
|
|
|
Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 9, 2019 22:10:19 GMT -6
With the borderline temperature I have a hard time seeing this being a high impact snow like the January 2014 storm. It may be more like the palm sunday storm. How can we see significant, long lasting accumulation on pavement with temperatures often near or above freezing? Cold air is here and in place. Here comes the moisture.....temps won’t be an issue. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 22:11:45 GMT -6
It's pretty clear. The GFS is an outlier in terms of moisture. How fun is it to have a model that drops 6" be the dry outlier?
Im throwing out the GFS right now, count me all aboard the big boy express
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2019 22:16:21 GMT -6
Just going through my catalog of heavy snow events in STL. Most of these occur with precipitable water values between 0.5-0.7" and often it's really right around 0.6". Much of the model guidance is just over 0.7" for at least a portion of the event so we're clearly in the higher end of heavy snow climatology PW values.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 22:16:28 GMT -6
FWIW, the JMA (Japanese) has joined the 1" QPF club or at least close enough to call it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2019 22:18:26 GMT -6
With the borderline temperature I have a hard time seeing this being a high impact snow like the January 2014 storm. It may be more like the palm sunday storm. How can we see significant, long lasting accumulation on pavement with temperatures often near or above freezing? If snowfall rates are heavy enough it will overcome any melting that occurs and cool the ground farther at the same time so during the heavy snow rates there should be some slushy or even snow covered at least partially. That said marginal temps will make removal operations easier and chemicals and salts will be very effective. Actually if it comes down fast enough yes it will accumulate but it will also insulate the ground temp and not so much cool it any further. Chemicals will be very effective this go around and to be honest I doubt I use much chemical |
|
|
|
Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 9, 2019 22:19:39 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 9, 2019 22:20:25 GMT -6
If snowfall rates are heavy enough it will overcome any melting that occurs and cool the ground farther at the same time so during the heavy snow rates there should be some slushy or even snow covered at least partially. That said marginal temps will make removal operations easier and chemicals and salts will be very effective. Actually if it comes down fast enough yes it will accumulate but it will also insulate the ground temp and not so much cool it any further. Chemicals will be very effective this go around and to be honest I doubt I use much chemical Shoveling this stuff will likely be a back breaker though thanks to the partially melted layer right against the surface adding water wait and making the snow very heavy. |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2019 22:26:31 GMT -6
Actually if it comes down fast enough yes it will accumulate but it will also insulate the ground temp and not so much cool it any further. Chemicals will be very effective this go around and to be honest I doubt I use much chemical Shoveling this stuff will likely be a back breaker though thanks to the partially melted layer right against the surface adding water wait and making the snow very heavy. I don’t shovel much anymore. Truck and or 4-Wheeler for me. There are a few places where we get out to shovel a short sidewalk tho |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2019 22:26:59 GMT -6
I'm getting a little annoyed at some folks talking about the melting Saturday like it's all going to melt away. If we get even a few inches from the first thump and we stay in the low 30's (which we will) under very dense cloud cover (which we will) along with the potential for at least light snow to continue, it's not going to do much harm. Yes there will be compaction but cloudy days do wonders for snowpacks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 9, 2019 22:29:47 GMT -6
I hope this isn't Sat!  |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 22:30:25 GMT -6
During the Palm Sunday storm the temperature was hovering around 32-33F most of the day. The airport still ended with a 10:1 ratio.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2019 22:32:31 GMT -6
My thoughts...Whatever we get friday night will be the lions share. Saturday, that snow will be wasted with daytime temps and a lull in intensity. There may be a bit of minor accum early saturday evening but that will be limited to an inch or so.see no reason to think anything outside 4 to 8, and imby, 4 or 5.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2019 22:40:38 GMT -6
I'm calling the "Holy Grail" for the Midwest MLK weekend.
I want to see a full phase 978mb blizzard.
That lobe of the PV is rotating into position and a very powerful piece of energy is loading in the southwest.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 22:40:59 GMT -6
With the borderline temperature I have a hard time seeing this being a high impact snow like the January 2014 storm. It may be more like the palm sunday storm. How can we see significant, long lasting accumulation on pavement with temperatures often near or above freezing? It's goin to be in the upper 20s and mostly at night. I mean we are looking at 6"+ overnight. They are talking about temperatures on Saturday during the day being slightly above freezing. Palm Sunday storm was when the sun angle was the same as September. The sun angle now is the same as early December. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 22:41:17 GMT -6
One system at a time, but look at the GFS next weekend. Something to keep an eye on after this one
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Jan 9, 2019 22:44:21 GMT -6
With the borderline temperature I have a hard time seeing this being a high impact snow like the January 2014 storm. It may be more like the palm sunday storm. How can we see significant, long lasting accumulation on pavement with temperatures often near or above freezing? If snowfall rates are heavy enough it will overcome any melting that occurs and cool the ground farther at the same time so during the heavy snow rates there should be some slushy or even snow covered at least partially. That said marginal temps will make removal operations easier and chemicals and salts will be very effective. I think if we get an hour of sleet -That can also make a big difference on the roads.... |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2019 22:48:44 GMT -6
A quick reminder about QPF bias. NWP QPF is generally biased high in light precip events (<0.25") and low in high precip events (>2.00"). The bias tends to be all over the place at around 1.00".
Subjectively, the NAM/FV3/GEM strike me as being too generous and the GFS too stingy. So I think the ECM/UKM both at around 1.0" of precip in the STL area is decent guide of max precip with some or even many place receiving less. And yes I still believe snow ratios will outpace 10:1 when the bulk of the precip falls but as the event drags on and temps rise compaction and melting seem very likely to drop that ratio a little closer to 10:1. Widespread 4-8" with isolated 10" amounts for those with no p-type mixing sounds like a very practical starting point to frame the event given that we are still nearly 48 hours out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 9, 2019 22:51:10 GMT -6
Hope u all know my post above was meant for comic relief! Lol
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2019 22:56:10 GMT -6
Hope u all know my post above was meant for comic relief! Lol I have daughter who was really into that movie so I totally get it. Besides it rings true often enough unfortunately. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 23:03:44 GMT -6
Here’s the FV3 GFS. Ignore that huge blob in southern Mo and northern AR. Looks like some error in Tropical Tidbits algorithm  |
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 9, 2019 23:04:04 GMT -6
Guys, it it is early Jan! The sun angle is low and it'll be cloudy with an already cold ground. There will not be a lot of melting during the day Saturday and any snow that falls on top of the snow that's already fallen will instantly stick. Roads will likely be fairly decent and snow removal and treatment will be effective but I don't understand all this worry over melting or lack of accumulation. Yes, compaction will be a factor but I do not see the air temps being a huge negating factor especially where there is already existing snow. It's January, not March! Psalm Sunday storm was fighting an intense early Spring Sun angle.
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 23:04:56 GMT -6
Has anybody seen that the daily record Snow is January at 11” and that for the 12th it is 5.1” and for the 13th it is 3.8”. We looking to break some records here!!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 23:06:42 GMT -6
I should point out that FV3 map includes sleet which there is a good amount of in the southern counties
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 23:08:15 GMT -6
The fv3 verbatim drops like 1.5" of qpf just South of 44/64 and it's all snow
Also about the qpf being overdone.
Pwats are 200 percent of normal with a powerhouse phasing system.
The GFS is drier because the GFS has a bias towards flatter less phased systems with weaker lljs.
This is the best model continuity I have ever seen.
It feels like people are just afraid to go out on a limb.
Well Glenn freaking Zimmerman did.
The most notorious snow grouch in St. Louis broadcast television history.
Because Glenn is a straight shooter looking at this thinking:
Everything I just wrote.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 9, 2019 23:13:50 GMT -6
UKMET is rolling out. Doesn't appear to be any major changes, a bit further north it appears. Still waiting on some temperature data from the UQAM site.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 23:14:52 GMT -6
Here’s the FV3 GFS. Ignore that huge blob in southern Mo and northern AR. Looks like some error in Tropical Tidbits algorithm Looks like the backend is still just getting going at that point. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2019 23:16:39 GMT -6
The UKMET has widespread 1" amounts and a narrow strip of 1.2" right into the metro.  |
|
