|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 21:48:47 GMT -6
The icon isnt realistic in how it handles the vorticity.
So the system is a mess and the end has an unrealistic "deformation" band.
Just my opinion
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 21:54:16 GMT -6
00z gfs is good. Some dry air, but it gets overwhelmed.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 21:56:15 GMT -6
It kind of scares me a little with NAM further north and others further south. Now with a blend of them all one would think the middle of the road (Metro area) would get the greatest snow. But to me it always seems like when this happens there are two areas of higher bands. One south and one north leaving the middle...well....ya know. 🤤
Just sayin. Ugh...maybe this is a different type of storm because it's Pacific based??
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 21:59:05 GMT -6
00z gfs is good. Some dry air, but it gets overwhelmed. It does seem to bring totals further north then it's previous run? Only out to 90 hrs though. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 22:03:32 GMT -6
Anyone see the 0z UKMET yet just wondering?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2019 22:04:02 GMT -6
lol @ the GEM. wow
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 22:04:03 GMT -6
00z gfs is good. Some dry air, but it gets overwhelmed. It does seem to bring totals further north then it's previous run? Only out to 90 hrs though. The wall of dry air at the MO/IL border is way more concerning in my mind. It is clearly south of the nam just like the Icon. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 22:04:09 GMT -6
Gfs really starting to show us the two potential phases of this system. Sleet for some and heavy snow on the front end with the WAA, followed by a break, then a round two mostly snow. This fits the most likely scenario historically and imo.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 22:04:27 GMT -6
Anyone see the 0z UKMET yet just wondering? Doesn't roll out until close to 11pm. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 22:06:09 GMT -6
I’ve been burned way to many times believing the NAM super juicy and amped solutions at this range to give it any credit right now.
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Jan 8, 2019 22:07:48 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 22:08:00 GMT -6
The GFS sucks.
We want a compromise between the GFS and nam
Which is the wetter but colder models.
That backend snow is a fantasy.
Whatever we get from the WAA is likely all the accumulating snow we get.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 22:08:24 GMT -6
GGEM looks amazing
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2019 22:11:25 GMT -6
The GFS sucks. We want a compromise between the GFS and nam Which is the wetter but colder models. That backend snow is a fantasy. Whatever we get from the WAA is likely all the accumulating snow we get. What makes you so sure? I've seen similar setups haves second wave at the backend like this. Normally I-44 points south. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 22:11:58 GMT -6
It does seem like all the models try and develop a def zone / trowel right on top of the metro, right as the WAA precipitation starts to wind down they show the low closing off and creating a trowel as it pulls away. I have seen many storms over the last 20 years do this. A lot has to come together perfectly though. This is very possible for someone.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 22:12:55 GMT -6
Ya closing in on a foot plus in south central MO. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Jan 8, 2019 22:15:02 GMT -6
Ryan Maue has a model loop of a strong North Pacific storm bombing out just south of the Aleutians. Wasn't there a very strong cyclone a few years back that played h*** with our weather?  Seems I remember a storm blocking the flow for some time. |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2019 22:15:53 GMT -6
Ya closing in on a foot plus in south central MO. Edit: I'm not even going to touch on Union getting 12 inches per GEM. Ohhhh wait....... |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 22:17:34 GMT -6
You basically have the GEM, GFS and ICON all have a very similar set up Saturday night into Sunday morning with regards to low placement and qpf fields , a nice trowel feature. . I bet the EURO will come in similar tonight. You will likely see the amped up NAM slowly tone itself down as we get closer to the event.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2019 22:19:08 GMT -6
Someone post Super GFS and UKMET amounts later as they come out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 22:25:14 GMT -6
I'm about to start work.
Post the gem qpf total.
And please post the gem 850mb winds at hour 72.
The NAM IS INCREDIBLY OVERDONE
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 8, 2019 22:26:01 GMT -6
Ya closing in on a foot plus in south central MO. Edit: I'm not even going to touch on Union getting 12 inches per GEM. Ohhhh wait....... Union is likely the winner if the track stays the same. I'm serious |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 8, 2019 22:28:16 GMT -6
WAA events always end up further north. I70 is likely the dividing line in both states.
|
|
modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
|
Post by modracer on Jan 8, 2019 22:39:34 GMT -6
Are you you still at Savers in Fairview and still riding 10-20 miles a day? I'm about to start work. Post the gem qpf total. And please post the gem 850mb winds at hour 72. The NAM IS INCREDIBLY OVERDONE |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 22:44:01 GMT -6
FV3 looks okay.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 22:45:59 GMT -6
SREFs are in line with the GEFS and EPS
Thats also a signal the NAM is an anomaly. Its usually in lock step with the SREFs
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2019 22:48:59 GMT -6
Things are going to get wild by MLK day...
Enjoy your appetizer, I'll wait for the main course.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2019 23:01:47 GMT -6
00z GEFS mean snowfall. A near carbon copy of the 12z EPS  |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 23:12:19 GMT -6
Here are the 0Z FV3 and UKMET QPF charts. I know there's ptype problems on the FV3 at onset and then again during the deformation band from the Memphis low. It looked like it would be mostly snow especially north of I-70. UKMET isn't quite as amped as the FV3 in terms of QPF, but it's not far behind.   |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2019 23:15:40 GMT -6
I'm wondering if the 0Z EPS snowfall mean will nudge north or perhaps expand northward tonight.
|
|
Seems I remember a storm blocking the flow for some time.
