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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:22:04 GMT -6
The euro is absolutely beautiful. Several inches of WAA snow then a few more inches or backside snow as the system pulls away.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 0:22:15 GMT -6
euro is huge
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:24:44 GMT -6
Ya euro is dropping a foot for a majority of the area. Damn
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 0:26:12 GMT -6
Like one of those ensemble member runs the last day or so. Crazy
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 0:27:04 GMT -6
Has snow lingering into Sunday morning, with Def zone? I guess it's a def zone...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:27:18 GMT -6
The kuchera method prints out 10"+ for everybody in the viewing area. Metro is right at a foot. The biggest winners are the southern counties approaching 18"
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:29:45 GMT -6
Mixing looks to be an issue only for the extreme southern and SE sections of the viewing area on the euro
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 0:30:05 GMT -6
Closes off 500 in nw MO, then moves it ese right over us. Hmm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:34:04 GMT -6
Closes off 500 in nw MO, then moves it ese right over us. Hmm The 500 low is never very defined and only closes off briefly
The 850 low is much more defined and tracks E right across southern Mo
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 0:35:36 GMT -6
yeah was going to mention that. Kind of a crazy run. EPS should be fun, lol.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2019 0:37:36 GMT -6
Wow. Merry Christmas.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:39:43 GMT -6
There does seem to be a trend towards deformation snow around here as the system pulls away
Both the GFS and Euro show a good slug of WAA snow, maybe a brief lull, then another round of deformation snow
This could be a really fun system
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 0:39:54 GMT -6
HOLY EURO!!! That is a photo to keep. What a great run!! Everyone is happy especially those along 44 in Missouri. Solid 5-8”+ 😊
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 0:47:30 GMT -6
Euro QPF breakdown:
Northern counties: .9
Metro/central counties: 1.0 - 1.3
Southern counties: 1.1 - 1.5
Thats a beefy run
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 9, 2019 0:48:32 GMT -6
Euro QPF breakdown: Northern counties: .9 Metro/central counties: 1.0 - 1.3 Southern counties: 1.1 - 1.5 Thats a beefy run Damn right. Cheers to that!! |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 0:50:34 GMT -6
I told you all earlier, the EURO would go to the Def zone! That’s awesome, now back to bed
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 0:57:00 GMT -6
euro is usually a drier model..or at least used to be. That's interesting.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 1:15:13 GMT -6
There does seem to be a trend towards deformation snow around here as the system pulls away Both the GFS and Euro show a good slug of WAA snow, maybe a brief lull, then another round of deformation snow This could be a really fun system This definitely has the flavor of Christmas Eve 2002..just maybe not as cold...and maybe more widespread with the snow. That system was broken into two pieces...a quick, but intense burst of snow down near Farmington the night of the Dec 23... then as the upper low closed off...a deformation zone lifted northeast across the region...produce an additional 3-6" of snow the following day. www.weather.gov/media/lsx/Events/12_24_2002.pdf |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2019 1:26:32 GMT -6
The WAM continues to be a major concern in the warm air advection snow on the front end... but then as the upper system kicks in and reorganizes further south... the cold air collapses back south and should make for a quality deformation zone that will be all snow. Making appropriate corrections...favoring more WAM up front in the WAA zone initially...and then accounting for the upper system in phase two...keys in on an I-70 special...with an advisory snow likely and warning level snow quite possible. My initial map to start this thread looks excellent at this time. My only adjustment might be to nudge the mix precip about 1/2 county further north...to account for the WAM in phase 1. I expect a mix of sleet and snow (and probably rain briefly to start) as far north as a line from near Cuba...to about Sparta...up to about Salem, IL. What they lose in phase 1 to mix... they pick up in phase 2 with the deformation zone.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 1:28:24 GMT -6
Sounds good Chris. Doesn't mean much but a winter storm watch and warning would be nice for here, lol.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 1:29:45 GMT -6
The EPS has the metro in the bullseye. Has 8 inches over the area. That's a lot for the ensembles.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 1:36:41 GMT -6
Gives a 74% chance of over 6 inches. 12% of over a foot.
QPF is .8
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 1:39:20 GMT -6
Ya the EPS is full bore major winter storm for most of the area
A mean of 8" is pretty incredible
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 9, 2019 2:07:52 GMT -6
This setup is pretty much the way we get big snows.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 2:17:19 GMT -6
Still 2 members only that have less than 2 inches. There are several large beefy ones over a foot. Impressive.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 2:45:53 GMT -6
6z NAM crushes the area. Its still a bit north of the other models with its heaviest snow but starting to fall in line
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 2:56:07 GMT -6
Looks like the 850 is further south on the 6z Nam. Looks good. Though 500 is still north..
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2019 2:58:16 GMT -6
When do you sleep 920? lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 9, 2019 3:02:56 GMT -6
It looks awesome and has not even started to develop the def zone yet. I think there is very good model consistentcy right now. I do think the I -70 /I-44 coordinator could be the jack pot zone as of right now. I still like the 4-8” range right now, but definitely could go up if the def zone snow works out as it’s being modeled
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2019 3:06:47 GMT -6
When do you sleep 920? lol I don’t lol My graduate late evening classes has my sleep schedule kind of messed up. I usually sleep from 4-11am. Ive always been more of a night owl anyway |
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