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Post by mosue56 on Jan 29, 2019 19:54:56 GMT -6
A pretty dusting of winter snow here in Festus!
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 29, 2019 19:55:29 GMT -6
I very well may be way off... but I remember 1983 had -70* wind chills with the old scale.
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nrs2420
Wishcaster
Pacific, MO
Posts: 227
Snowfall Events: It has snowed several times.
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Post by nrs2420 on Jan 29, 2019 20:15:24 GMT -6
Portions of Missouri. Pretty sure I’ll be working tomorrow
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 20:24:16 GMT -6
The name has essentially nothing tomorrow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 20:28:19 GMT -6
The name has essentially nothing tomorrow. It's by itself. Plus the higher resolution still prints out QPF in the same area as the other models.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 29, 2019 20:35:39 GMT -6
The name has essentially nothing tomorrow. It's by itself. Plus the higher resolution still prints out QPF in the same area as the other models. The NAM is kind of weird this run in general. It appears that it tries to saturate quicker but to me looks like a lot less QPF to work with and much less coverage than 12z.
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Jan 29, 2019 20:37:13 GMT -6
Portions of Missouri. Pretty sure I’ll be working tomorrow Double D will take care of it.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 29, 2019 20:38:07 GMT -6
I very well may be way off... but I remember 1983 had -70* wind chills with the old scale. Dating yourself
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 29, 2019 20:38:18 GMT -6
Lowest wind chill ill say was -47 with the old scale..back in 1983. My guess I recall -52 or something like that in the late 70s. But, again, that was the old scale.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 29, 2019 20:45:23 GMT -6
I very well may be way off... but I remember 1983 had -70* wind chills with the old scale. Dating yourself Talk about dating yourself. When I was a kid I wrote to channel 4 for a Ollie Raymand windchill chart and asked for everyone to sign it and they all did. That was so cool.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 21:03:07 GMT -6
00z hrrr looks decent tomorrow evening.
00z rgem remains the most bullish model.
Good for 1-3 inches through a good chunk of the metro.
Embrace it because its happening.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 21:08:20 GMT -6
Add the 00z Icon to the snow team for tomorrow.
Nice
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 29, 2019 21:20:56 GMT -6
The old wind chill chart The day I was thinking of with Jan 20,1985. -18* with 30ph wind.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 29, 2019 21:31:54 GMT -6
Yep, January 20, 1985. Wind chill -48F (new method).
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 21:40:23 GMT -6
That might be overdone. Because snow ratios anyway actually drop when it gets to cold.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 29, 2019 21:42:25 GMT -6
Yep, January 20, 1985. Wind chill -48F (new method). This outbreak forced the cancellation of President Reagan's second Inauguration Parade. It also forced the public ceremony to be moved.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 21:50:27 GMT -6
The GFS, nam and hires nam have essentially nothing. The icon and rgem have about the same. The hrrr is decent. This is assuming very high snow ratios.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 29, 2019 21:55:47 GMT -6
Friv, that looks right over southern Jeffco! The darkest area!
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Post by landscaper on Jan 29, 2019 21:56:24 GMT -6
Unfortunately if you went off the RGEM in the last week we would have 3-5” by from clippers ... it has done terrible and is usually way to juicy. I do think it could be similar to what we had just over a week ago when we received around and inch. I’ve said before these are tricky to pin down and often it’s tough to get good saturation going but once they do, they usually produce accumulations quickly.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 22:00:25 GMT -6
00z ggem looks good.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 29, 2019 22:01:15 GMT -6
NAM is way too dry in the low levels for any snow. GFS has a decent sounding... saturated above 3km- right at the top of the DGZ. Lift isn't very good but I would think this would have some pretty good flakeage
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 22:23:32 GMT -6
00z gfs remains interesting for next week at this time.
Need more room between the first cutter and this system or it won't be able to become a monster.
On the other hand, the first storm brings the cold air down and a quick follower could give us a medium sized winter storm.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 22:40:50 GMT -6
00z gfs remains interesting for next week at this time. Need more room between the first cutter and this system or it won't be able to become a monster. On the other hand, the first storm brings the cold air down and a quick follower could give us a medium sized winter storm. Not for us.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 22:43:46 GMT -6
00z gfs remains interesting for next week at this time. Need more room between the first cutter and this system or it won't be able to become a monster. On the other hand, the first storm brings the cold air down and a quick follower could give us a medium sized winter storm. Not for us. Why? Clearly the lead storm brings down very cold air which is lurking just over the border. I see no reason some sort of wintry mix couldn't be had in the STL metro. Its 6 days away and there is cold air plus a storm. Seems like there is a chance.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 29, 2019 22:50:24 GMT -6
Also, 00z ukmet looks good for tomorrow night. Fv3 prints out some QPF.
Basically, the nam and gfs are the only no goes.
Enjoy your snow STL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 29, 2019 23:21:10 GMT -6
Whatever falls tomorrow is going to be some super high fluff stuff. Won’t take much moisture to get accumulations
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 23:28:33 GMT -6
Why? Clearly the lead storm brings down very cold air which is lurking just over the border. I see no reason some sort of wintry mix couldn't be had in the STL metro. Its 6 days away and there is cold air plus a storm. Seems like there is a chance. Because heights are just angled to high across the Eastern USA. Anything is possible. But I would bet against it. St Louis doesn't historically get winter events with heights positioned like that.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 23:41:32 GMT -6
But you're right the models have trended a little North with this one. Hopefully the gem is right.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 29, 2019 23:54:20 GMT -6
The rap is trending our favor
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 30, 2019 0:11:14 GMT -6
Kuchera has us at about a 23/24:1 ratio.
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