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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 13, 2019 22:15:15 GMT -6
Gfs and gem still have something trying to develop next week.
If it happens, it’s a retreating artic airmass setup, so probably ice.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 22:16:38 GMT -6
The Fv3 soundings worry me because they are showing alot of dry air in the low levels as its printing out snow. But I know the FV3 soundings have had issues in the past, so I don't know how reliable/accurate they are  |
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Post by TK on Feb 13, 2019 22:18:42 GMT -6
00z FV3  That's beautiful. So Friv - Maybe this is a stupid question but does this account for the Dam? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 22:25:17 GMT -6
But ya, roads for evening rush hour Friday could be rough. A dry snow with surface temps in the low-mid 20s will make the snow stick easily
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 22:44:13 GMT -6
So Friv - Maybe this is a stupid question but does this account for the Dam? Technically yes. The model won't print out precip that doesn't physically work. But that doesn't account for model bias. We are also not adjusting for ratios in our conversations about this event. The models keep trending colder. That will help. It takes less moisture to cause snow the colder it is. And ratios in this case are better. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 13, 2019 22:45:07 GMT -6
So Friv - Maybe this is a stupid question but does this account for the Dam? The 00Z FV3 soundings definitely show the dry air between 850 and the surface, so it would be accounting for it. Whether how it accounts for it is correct or not remains to be seen. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 22:47:45 GMT -6
The Fv3 soundings worry me because they are showing alot of dry air in the low levels as its printing out snow. But I know the FV3 soundings have had issues in the past, so I don't know how reliable/accurate they are I don't know. The other models are all fully saturated but that time. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 22:50:54 GMT -6
Ya I think that might just be an error in the FV3 soundings
They have acted strange in the past before
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 22:53:05 GMT -6
Uncle Ukie has done an about face and is fantastic.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 13, 2019 23:23:05 GMT -6
Yeah the Ukie has 0.4" qpf directly through St Charles, St Louis, Madison,St clair, and Monroe counties.
And 0.3" for everyone else right around those.
That's pretty impressive.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 14, 2019 0:12:01 GMT -6
Euro is still a solid 2-5”
Max band just south of STL
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 0:13:00 GMT -6
yeah, euro is pretty consistent
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 0:15:45 GMT -6
850's are just a couple degrees below 0, surface temps in low 20's during the snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 2:33:37 GMT -6
Nam still making small improvements.Hires NAM is very nice.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 14, 2019 2:42:12 GMT -6
So are you interested again, Snowman? Or still thinking it's whiff and you'll not bother with it?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 3:52:26 GMT -6
Both GFS and FV3 are solid.
NWS has pretty widespread totals around 2- 3" now.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 14, 2019 4:32:01 GMT -6
Chris looks so good at 4:30a! How does he do it?
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 4:32:11 GMT -6
Zone forecast for Union, st louis and many others are for 3 inches..but the graphical map has 2".  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 4:43:20 GMT -6
RPM Global 13km version (lower resolution) is printing out 4-5 inches...the hires version is more in the 2-3 range.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 4:43:35 GMT -6
We need a new thread. I'll see what I can do later today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 4:56:15 GMT -6
I take that back... the 13km RPM Global is printing out 5-7 for much of the i-70 corridor... I am NOT going to use that graphic  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 5:02:37 GMT -6
Do it...use it.  This thread stinks of decay. Lol |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 14, 2019 5:26:03 GMT -6
WOW... changes... two questions, 1) Is dry air still an issue, which will keep totals down? 2) Is rush hour in the cross heirs again?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 14, 2019 5:34:34 GMT -6
Dry air is very much still a concern...especially for the northeast parts of the area...but we are converging on a band of snow of 1-3 centered on a line from near COU...to Festus...and a few spots to near 4" are possibe..especially very near the above mentioned line.
Timing is definitely impqcting PM rush...and maybe the afternoon bus stop.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 5:54:01 GMT -6
Hmm..is this thread locked, but no new one yet.
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