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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2019 9:09:51 GMT -6
Something fishy about those readings, then. He's considerably colder than any nearby reporting station
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2019 9:11:54 GMT -6
Elevation.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 30, 2019 9:14:54 GMT -6
Something fishy about those readings, then. He's considerably colder than any nearby reporting station Location......elevation.......location......elevation.......etc.......etc.......😊
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2019 9:35:21 GMT -6
Bottomed out at -9*F here. Not sure what the wind chill is but KALN recorded a -30*F WCI. Essentially as cold as 2014 in that regard with basically no snowcover!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2019 9:47:25 GMT -6
12z Icon shows a major ice storm next week.
Surface temps in the 25-28 range.
Antecedent warm temps would limit surface impacts initially, but elevated surfaces would be a different story.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 30, 2019 9:50:58 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2019 9:55:52 GMT -6
12z Icon shows a major ice storm next week. Surface temps in the 25-28 range. Antecedent warm temps would limit surface impacts initially, but elevated surfaces would be a different story. Yea that's nasty looking. This is what I was afraid of yesterday. Models are notoriously awful at the shallow arctic air intrusions.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2019 9:58:40 GMT -6
That person lives in a very expensive place lol. My video has been defeated. Darn
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 30, 2019 10:09:24 GMT -6
12z Icon shows a major ice storm next week. Surface temps in the 25-28 range. Antecedent warm temps would limit surface impacts initially, but elevated surfaces would be a different story. For STL or Chicago? And what day(s)?
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 30, 2019 10:11:26 GMT -6
That person lives in a very expensive place lol. My video has been defeated. Darn I didn’t see yours prior to me posting that link. Both are amazing videos tho for sure
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 30, 2019 10:12:39 GMT -6
12z Icon shows a major ice storm next week. Surface temps in the 25-28 range. Antecedent warm temps would limit surface impacts initially, but elevated surfaces would be a different story. Based on the disco, the Euro would lend support
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Post by REB on Jan 30, 2019 10:12:50 GMT -6
My low was -4.3* My windchill is never accurate. Current temp .04* Another all day fire in the fireplace.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2019 10:19:48 GMT -6
12z gfs is too far west based with the high pressure, so the low tracks over STL.
12z GGEM holds some energy back and has ice later in the week.
Interesting trends this morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2019 11:02:26 GMT -6
Getting some wispy cirrus drifting by and it looks about the same height that stratus typically forms at...pretty wild.
Still sitting at -1*F.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 30, 2019 11:09:31 GMT -6
How well will the dry air hold up to the potential of the snow coming in from the NW?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2019 11:09:47 GMT -6
I think the only thing we can say about next week at this point is that another strong arctic push will come through, and there will be a ton of southern energy to play with. I think there is a lot of potential there and still believe the setup as a whole favors ice at some point.
A little snow this afternoon would be cool. I'm not sure I've ever seen it snow this cold. Truck temp still showed 2 degrees a few mins ago.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 30, 2019 11:12:10 GMT -6
12z Icon shows a major ice storm next week. Surface temps in the 25-28 range. Antecedent warm temps would limit surface impacts initially, but elevated surfaces would be a different story. For STL or Chicago? And what day(s)? For STL. Midweek
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2019 11:17:27 GMT -6
How’s the snow looking for tonight on the short range models?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 30, 2019 11:21:12 GMT -6
How well will the dry air hold up to the potential of the snow coming in from the NW? There's a good amount of mid and low level dry air to contend with, but air this cold saturates pretty quickly. I dont think it will take much snow to saturate the column
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 30, 2019 11:34:06 GMT -6
I sure hope the ice storm talk isn't mentioned on TV til after the weekends warmth. Do we ever know anythings in concrete until 48 hours prior, right?
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 30, 2019 11:36:08 GMT -6
12z gfs is too far west based with the high pressure, so the low tracks over STL. 12z GGEM holds some energy back and has ice later in the week. Interesting trends this morning. Compared to yesterday’s 12z GFS, the high is further east, like a bunch and further south. The difference with todays’ run is a high directly north of the lakes theoretically “pulling” the low further north with its return flow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 30, 2019 11:36:14 GMT -6
I sure hope the ice storm talk isn't mentioned on TV til after the weekends warmth. Do we ever know anythings in concrete until 48 hours prior, right? Given the model disparity, there shouldn't be any mention of it at all, other than the token "wintry mix/rain" wording. There's a ton of energy the models are trying to sort out at the moment.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 30, 2019 11:39:23 GMT -6
At least the FV3 is consistent...
I’m talking midweek.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 30, 2019 11:59:36 GMT -6
Recording 0.1*F at 18z...sub zero day didn't verify but single digit days with no snowcover around here are still impressive.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 30, 2019 12:07:42 GMT -6
I'm up to a whopping 5 degrees!! Break out the SPF 30!
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 30, 2019 12:22:52 GMT -6
I am concerned about this afternoon's light snow being a bigger impact than it should be due to timing and temperature. If pavement warms just enough with traffic to melt any snow with the product they will be putting down, I think a refreeze overnight is a big concern.
I know there is a chance at a "wintry mix" next week, but I don't hear much chatter about this afternoon's system with the high ratios.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 385
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Post by twocat on Jan 30, 2019 12:27:14 GMT -6
When I left this morning about 7 it was -8, according to the Davis on the roof, the Jeep and the Radio Shack special we have in the bedroom. Quite chilly! I am also in St. Peters.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 30, 2019 12:27:24 GMT -6
The short term models have really backed off today with snow chances North of 64.
We'll see.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2019 12:27:35 GMT -6
It looks there will be razor sharp cut offs to the north and south axis of the snow band. Definitely some haves and have nots, focused heavier band should be south and west of the metro area
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Post by landscaper on Jan 30, 2019 12:29:59 GMT -6
I thought we were in a good spot out in Wentzville, might not be far enough west
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