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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 8, 2019 21:17:33 GMT -6
RGEM is looking gnarly for Sunday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 21:18:25 GMT -6
00z Icon with the dream run for the early week storm.
Way south and swings a deformation zone through the metro.
Won't happen, but nice to look at.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 8, 2019 21:19:48 GMT -6
What’s it looking like for Festus Sun am?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 8, 2019 21:25:24 GMT -6
Snowman99 would be excited, another 2" of rain is on the way Monday... (Derp)
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 8, 2019 21:34:32 GMT -6
00z Icon with the dream run for the early week storm. Way south and swings a deformation zone through the metro. Won't happen, but nice to look at. Dream run for who? It's warm and rain even with the storm south..lol |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 8, 2019 21:37:01 GMT -6
Looks ideal temp wise
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 21:47:09 GMT -6
RGEM is looking gnarly for Sunday. Exactly how I envisioned things  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 21:48:26 GMT -6
What’s it looking like for Festus Sun am? Borderline between sleet/snow/freezing rain. It will be frozen. That's guaranteed. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 8, 2019 22:02:43 GMT -6
Friv, or we may not get anything at all?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 22:14:03 GMT -6
Friv, or we may not get anything at all? This is what the national weather service has for Festus as of now. It's going to precipitate and it will be very cold before noon Sunday. It's looking like low to mid 20s until the main lift exits after 10am. Saturday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday: Snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 11am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 11am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. High near 37. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Night: Rain before 3am, then sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 3am and 5am, then rain after 5am. Low around 32. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 8, 2019 22:14:06 GMT -6
I would say definitely more of a mix down south, likely not all snow. Best chance for all snow along and north of I 70
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Post by landscaper on Feb 8, 2019 22:15:51 GMT -6
I just don’t see any one south of I 70 below freezing Sunday night most models are 33 or above south of I 70
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 22:20:40 GMT -6
00z Icon with the dream run for the early week storm. Way south and swings a deformation zone through the metro. Won't happen, but nice to look at. Dream run for who? It's warm and rain even with the storm south..lol The Icon has terrible temp fields. That setup is what you would want. The 00z ggem supports it. 00z gfs is way north and west. Euro will be the tie breaker. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 22:31:26 GMT -6
The models are trending much colder tomorrow night-Sunday early afternoon.
They keep winds more Easterly here but also all the way down into Arkansas.
Hopefully most of us are sleet and snow because I'm the immediate metro temps are looking like they will be in the low 20s as the previous starts
The warm layer is essentially washed out down to about Hillsboro.
The WAA precip gets organized pretty much right on our doorstep.
What I think holds notice is the winds possibly turning back Easterly Sunday evening before the dryish/cold air after the first precipitation Sunday gets washed out.
We might see temps drop into the 30-31F range until the Warm front rises through Monday
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 22:43:53 GMT -6
Dream run for who? It's warm and rain even with the storm south..lol The Icon has terrible temp fields. That setup is what you would want. The 00z ggem supports it. 00z gfs is way north and west. Euro will be the tie breaker. The ggem is possible but still doesn't work for us. However a compromise between the GFS and ggem would deliver our best chance for backside snow. The fact that the ggem and icon are very similar so different from the GFS and name is incredible. This is extremely rare to see models this different 48-60 hours out. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 22:48:02 GMT -6
The Icon has terrible temp fields. That setup is what you would want. The 00z ggem supports it. 00z gfs is way north and west. Euro will be the tie breaker. The ggem is possible but still doesn't work for us. However a compromise between the GFS and ggem would deliver our best chance for backside snow. The fact that the ggem and icon are very similar so different from the GFS and name is incredible. This is extremely rare to see models this different 48-60 hours out. 00z ukmet is closer to the Icon/ggem camp. 12 and 24 hour charts make it hard to tell how similar, but it definitely doesn't look like the gfs. Agreed that the differences are significant. Even run to run of the same model has been horrible leading up to this system. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 22:54:33 GMT -6
The only realistic way to capture backside snow is a deep sharp trough like the ggem shows and then the system bombing out hard. Just SE of where the GFS has things.
Could turn into something.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 22:57:03 GMT -6
The odds Of the tho are very very low
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 9, 2019 2:21:03 GMT -6
The 06z here comes in colder with snow penetration reaching a good 30 miles SW of STL.
The 06z nam comes in with totally jacked up WAA and gives the Southern 2/3rd of the metro a near warning level ice storm.
With a .25" qpf of rain with temps in the mid 20s.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 9, 2019 2:23:36 GMT -6
So yeah. Well see  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 9, 2019 7:53:08 GMT -6
My wife works this weekend at the hospital. Last time she did we had 14” of snow and was stuck on the other side of the Meremac. Something will happen. At least this time she has food for the weekend.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 9, 2019 9:13:48 GMT -6
Ok I have climed to 30.91 inches on the barometer. I see it may be a touch high but Lambert is reporting 30.85 and rising
Is it me or is this quite a impressive top ten high pressure for.our area
Just asking
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 9, 2019 9:26:10 GMT -6
Ok I have climed to 30.91 inches on the barometer. I see it may be a touch high but Lambert is reporting 30.85 and rising Is it me or is this quite a impressive top ten high pressure for.our area Just asking I'm not sure if it's top 10 but at 30.84" it is impressively high. As far as I know the record station pressure at KSTL is 31.01" (1924). |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 9, 2019 10:11:36 GMT -6
On the road for Xavier basketball and visit with my son...so that means there is winter weather coming to St. Louis... Here is what I'm thinking... I'm gong to assume it arrives and departs faster than modeled...which is not unusual for these types of systems. It may end up only precipitating in any form for a couple of hours...I expect a full mix of precip in metro STL...that may start as sleet and snow...then change to ZR before ending. South of STL...it's all sleet and ZR. North of I-70...mostly snow...with 1-2 inches.   |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 9, 2019 10:42:29 GMT -6
Models really cutting back on QPF tonight/tomorrow. Down to around or just under .1" according to most models from the 'juicy' .2 to .25" QPF from 6Z. Also most models now keep the precip all freezing rain to rain with areas north of I-70 staying snow until the end tomorrow early afternoon. Not much sleet if at all.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 9, 2019 10:46:19 GMT -6
maybe...just maybe..we'll have something to watch for early the week after next..9 days or so..gfs has a nice system, have to see others.
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Post by jeepers on Feb 9, 2019 10:48:12 GMT -6
So just enough to jack the roads and make them dangerous. Sounds about right.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 9, 2019 11:00:55 GMT -6
Is the WWA out now? Or is the NWS giving everyone a heads up ahead of time! It’s on TV already but gave no start time! Just til noon tomorrow! Just asking! Enjoy the sunshine!
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 9, 2019 11:01:57 GMT -6
wwa starts at midnight.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 9, 2019 11:55:52 GMT -6
President's day. I'm starting a new job that day so book a storm.
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