|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 8, 2019 15:04:49 GMT -6
Tilawn check your PM's please.
|
|
|
|
Post by tedrick65 on Feb 8, 2019 15:06:44 GMT -6
This is one strong high pressure system. I am showing 30.81. Is that possible You're reading about 0.10 to 0.15 inches of mercury higher than other places in Missouri and the 1043mb surface high (which is what you say you are reading now) was at the confluence of Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota at 1:45p today. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 15:14:21 GMT -6
18z rgem has come in fairly robust as well.
I could see a winter weather advisory posted tomorrow morning if the 00z models stay the course.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Feb 8, 2019 15:25:25 GMT -6
I am at 30.67 in de soto. Farmington (KFAM) is at 30.64 at 19:56 UTC (2:56pm). St. Louis (KSTL) is at 30.68 at 19:51 UTC. (2:51pm) I think I have the local times right. Hard to imagine the readings are an hour and twenty minutes old. Standard time 18z is 12pm. When the clocks 'fall back' 18z becomes 11am. Crap, I'm not sure now.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Feb 8, 2019 15:37:04 GMT -6
I have a cousin that lives in Port Angeles WA. She said she has 4-7" snow since 7am this morning and that was the forcasted total through Tuesday. She was comparing it to a 1996 storm. She is around 80 miles west of Seattle, very near sea level.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 8, 2019 15:44:06 GMT -6
Well the wording of the disco makes it sound like an advisory is likely for late sat night and sun morning. Still pretty junky, but better than 2" of rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Feb 8, 2019 16:12:29 GMT -6
US National Weather Service Saint Louis Missouri 3 hrs · The National Weather Service is hiring meteorology students for summer internships at several locations across the USA including here in St. Louis. To apply, go to the following link by February 19th: www.usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDetails/523297100 |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 8, 2019 16:24:40 GMT -6
Cpc outlook puts st louis in enhanced probs of above normal temps for 6 to 10. Below normal temps foe 8 to 14...enhanced odds for above normal for next two weeks ao is flipping to strongly positive then after feb 14 ensembles offer a wide range of uncertainty but the majority keeping a positive value. Nao is slightly positive and is forecast to fall to neutral until early next week before going slightly positive. A few ensembles suggest neg nao but...
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 8, 2019 16:28:04 GMT -6
Hazards outlook depicts heavy rain from tx to mid atlantic....heavy snow from iowa to great lakes feb 12 then again feb 15.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 8, 2019 16:30:41 GMT -6
Saturday night and sunday morning looks like an icy/snowy mess
Surface temps will be cold enough for anything that falls to cause problems
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 8, 2019 16:39:19 GMT -6
Cpc outlook puts st louis in enhanced probs of above normal temps for 6 to 10. Below normal temps foe 8 to 14...enhanced odds for above normal for next two weeks ao is flipping to strongly positive then after feb 14 ensembles offer a wide range of uncertainty but the majority keeping a positive value. Nao is slightly positive and is forecast to fall to neutral until early next week before going slightly positive. A few ensembles suggest neg nao but... Things are definitely going to stay active around here the next few weeks
Just need one of these systems to take a favorable track or pull down enough cold air
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 17:27:30 GMT -6
Saturday night and sunday morning looks like an icy/snowy mess Surface temps will be cold enough for anything that falls to cause problems It's starting to look like a quick burst sprinkles/sleet straight to heavy snow for 60-90 mins then over to light snow/graupel/freezing rain. Then plain rain by noon. Upward vertical Velocities are pretty strong h5-h8. Evaporational and mechanical cooling should bring us to snow. I think it might snow all the way down to Sparta IL. I think Farmington might be too far South for snow and sleet. I think many of us in the immediate metro will see 1-2" of snow. Better chances for 2"+ the further North and East. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 17:31:50 GMT -6
Saturday night and sunday morning looks like an icy/snowy mess Surface temps will be cold enough for anything that falls to cause problems And yeah roads all be a disaster Sunday morning |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 8, 2019 17:54:08 GMT -6
Hopefully we get a new thread started before this weekend’s event.
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Feb 8, 2019 17:56:20 GMT -6
Saturday night and sunday morning looks like an icy/snowy mess Surface temps will be cold enough for anything that falls to cause problems And yeah roads all be a disaster Sunday morning Is is bad that I am hoping for slick roads Sunday morning so I can skip church and sleep in? |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 18:36:43 GMT -6
And yeah roads all be a disaster Sunday morning Is is bad that I am hoping for slick roads Sunday morning so I can skip church and sleep in? No it's being human. You are looking good for a couple inches of snow up that way. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 8, 2019 18:42:16 GMT -6
Not sure if the euro has a wind bias... But it shows 60 mph wind gusts on Tuesday. That could be impactful if things remain swamp like. It does...along with the NAM. |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 8, 2019 18:53:44 GMT -6
Cpc outlook puts st louis in enhanced probs of above normal temps for 6 to 10. Below normal temps foe 8 to 14...enhanced odds for above normal for next two weeks ao is flipping to strongly positive then after feb 14 ensembles offer a wide range of uncertainty but the majority keeping a positive value. Nao is slightly positive and is forecast to fall to neutral until early next week before going slightly positive. A few ensembles suggest neg nao but... I actually like the orientation they have of the cold/warm. It “should” allow storms to come out a little flatter and give us a better chance at frozen precip. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 19:04:57 GMT -6
Sunday morning is really starting to look like a pretty hazardous situation. Looking through wind data and soundings. I expect the models to trend slightly colder in the mid levels. I'll probably be dead wrong. But I think it's mostly snow  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 19:06:16 GMT -6
Not sure if the euro has a wind bias... But it shows 60 mph wind gusts on Tuesday. That could be impactful if things remain swamp like. It does...along with the NAM. Thanks for the heads up. It seemed extreme even for an intensifying low. |
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 8, 2019 19:11:40 GMT -6
Cpc outlook puts st louis in enhanced probs of above normal temps for 6 to 10. Below normal temps foe 8 to 14...enhanced odds for above normal for next two weeks ao is flipping to strongly positive then after feb 14 ensembles offer a wide range of uncertainty but the majority keeping a positive value. Nao is slightly positive and is forecast to fall to neutral until early next week before going slightly positive. A few ensembles suggest neg nao but... I actually like the orientation they have of the cold/warm. It “should” allow storms to come out a little flatter and give us a better chance at frozen precip. Fwiw that orientation has been around all week. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 8, 2019 19:17:49 GMT -6
I’ve noticed the euro has a strong wind bias as well. You can usually knock about 10 knots off the top wind gust it’s printing out to get a more accurate estimate
|
|
|
|
Post by TK on Feb 8, 2019 19:31:09 GMT -6
Is is bad that I am hoping for slick roads Sunday morning so I can skip church and sleep in? No it's being human. You are looking good for a couple inches of snow up that way. Perfect weekend to watch 2 early afternoon Blues games Sat/Sun with winter outside and a few cold ones inside... |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 8, 2019 19:39:54 GMT -6
I actually like the orientation they have of the cold/warm. It “should” allow storms to come out a little flatter and give us a better chance at frozen precip. Fwiw that orientation has been around all week. Last time I looked at it, it was almost north/south oriented, I think towards the beginning of the week. The teleconnections on the ESRL website had the NAO going slightly negative. CPC does have the AO going way positive but then diving it again back to neutral. Quite a bit of spread there after though. Hard to make heads or tails of those teleconnections IMO. MJO definitively lends support to colder air. Perhaps not colder air but colder storms at least. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 20:03:34 GMT -6
Next week is not happening as is.
And its really not be even close even if it looks close.
The system ejects with a screaming jet stream underneath it.
So it's not going to dig.
There is no cold air in place.
And Nothing to really prevent it to gain latitude.
This system early next week.
Actually has a small chance that we see a pretty snowy wrap around.
Expecially North of 70.
Well see.
But it could sensibly track backend snow along and North of 70.
Same with next week.
But I think chances are slightly better with storm one
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 20:08:07 GMT -6
Next week is not happening as is. And its really not be even close even if it looks close. The system ejects with a screaming jet stream underneath it. So it's not going to dig. There is no cold air in place. And Nothing to really prevent it to gain latitude. This system early next week. Actually has a small chance that we see a pretty snowy wrap around. Expecially North of 70. Well see. But it could sensibly track backend snow along and North of 70. Same with next week. But I think chances are slightly better with storm one There have been various runs on various models showing good wraparound. It really comes down to when the low wraps up. If it happens over in Kansas, everyone is screwed. If it makes it to Quincy and goes off, it could be very windy with snow squalls. Not the big one people want, but at least wintry. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 20:24:16 GMT -6
00z nam looks good early Sunday.
QPF tops out at about 0.2 so 2 inches seems to be the upper bound.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 8, 2019 20:28:33 GMT -6
I could see a nice band of 1-2” along and north of I70
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 8, 2019 20:31:00 GMT -6
Next week is not happening as is. And its really not be even close even if it looks close. The system ejects with a screaming jet stream underneath it. So it's not going to dig. There is no cold air in place. And Nothing to really prevent it to gain latitude. This system early next week. Actually has a small chance that we see a pretty snowy wrap around. Expecially North of 70. Well see. But it could sensibly track backend snow along and North of 70. Same with next week. But I think chances are slightly better with storm one There have been various runs on various models showing good wraparound. It really comes down to when the low wraps up. If it happens over in Kansas, everyone is screwed. If it makes it to Quincy and goes off, it could be very windy with snow squalls. Not the big one people want, but at least wintry. Low level cyclonic flow also. During peak heating with decent lapse rates. Decent low level moisture. Yeah it's definitely close to a classic backside thick coating with isolated spots up to an inch. Sunday morning looks pretty white as well. With some nasty ice Southern 1/3rd. And a glaze for everyone on top of the 1-2" of snow before 12_3pm. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 8, 2019 20:59:22 GMT -6
Still plenty of time to trend warmer, but the 00z nam and hires nam put Monday morning's commute in jeapordy for those north of 70.
Could be a sneaky event with icing aided by time of day.
|
|
