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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2019 10:14:15 GMT -6
Memphis low Friday per the 12z gfs A 996 one at that. Precip Shield doesn't translate out though considering strength of low. We always say it and it sometimes is true but models are really struggling with the different pieces of energy and this other storm moving through right now isn't helping as well. It's the same issue as earlier this winter when the vort max track was ideal. The vorticity advection is ESE. Imagine essentially something trying to blossom with a lid trying to keep it contained. That's how that plays out. There is no where for it to amplify So it's kinda squashed. It's positively tilted. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 11, 2019 10:43:11 GMT -6
GFS has early week storm suppressed but we've seen that a million times. The chances it comes north are very high.
So many questions right now but this is as good as it gets as far as chances for winter storms. Such high potential over the next 10 days.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 11, 2019 10:56:53 GMT -6
3Knam still on for a neat burst of snow for tomorrow
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2019 11:33:48 GMT -6
Anyone know what the UKMET is showing
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 11:44:19 GMT -6
Anyone know what the UKMET is showing Looks weak and south |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 12:17:10 GMT -6
12z euro looks is way different than 24 hours ago.
Zero consistency
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2019 12:21:55 GMT -6
12z euro looks is way different than 24 hours ago. Zero consistency It’s the magical weak bias at the timeframe for Euro. Give it a few runs, it’ll be back wrapped up |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 11, 2019 12:25:29 GMT -6
Even the GFS vs FV3 are very different. Both lead to snow so I guess that's good. But how they get to that point are different.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2019 12:26:53 GMT -6
It looks a lot better for St. Louis, it least there’s it’s south of us and has colder air than the . It’s a little slower than the GFS but takes a similar track
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 12:27:33 GMT -6
Euro has an advisory level(2-6") for the SW 2/3rds of the area friday
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 11, 2019 12:29:30 GMT -6
UKMET has nothing on Friday. Though it does look like it wants to do something on Sunday.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2019 12:52:28 GMT -6
I’m not even worried about next week. Plenty going on this week to make you scratch your head.
The 3K NAM is holding strong to its defo band tomorrow. It’s gaining support from other models as well concerning that. It’ll be fast but pretty stout. Or, possibly nothing. The fact that nothing is showing on radar that could potentially support it keeps me from buying it.
The globals are all over the place for late week. IMO, there will be something. This pattern doesn’t support a full 7 days without anything, so there’s that.
GFS has it, GEM has it, ICON has a flavor of it, FV3 is licking the windows, and finally the Euro has it. Blend the 4 that have a storm, and I think there’s pretty good potential with it. It may end up a twinge north from a Memphis low, but metro and north looks good, to me. First guess, a solid 3-6” storm.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 11, 2019 12:57:42 GMT -6
Tomorrows defo band is taking shape west of amarillo
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 13:01:42 GMT -6
The energy for tomorrows potential snow is still out by the four corners
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Post by landscaper on Feb 11, 2019 13:18:17 GMT -6
Snow how does the Euro look early next week? It looks like maybe some light snow, hopefully not to suppressed
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 13:23:35 GMT -6
Snow how does the Euro look early next week? It looks like maybe some light snow, hopefully not to suppressed Verbatim, it has several inches of snow right up 44 Tuesday into Tuesday night |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 11, 2019 13:27:21 GMT -6
Theres some pattern change going on that will affect how things end up this weekend and beyond. I wld just tokenize a slight chance mixed eow and assume the weekend to be dry for now.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 11, 2019 13:37:05 GMT -6
ECMWF, CMC, and GFS/FV3 also show activity early next week as well. So there are a few interesting things to keep an eye on right now.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 11, 2019 13:37:42 GMT -6
Hrrr starts developing defo band right over STL tomorrow at 8.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 11, 2019 13:39:17 GMT -6
Hrrr starts developing defo band right over STL tomorrow at 8. And has virtually nothing lol |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Feb 11, 2019 13:47:12 GMT -6
Amazing how in November, we were singing the praises of the models and the past couple of months, it has been a total disaster. It's like throwing spaghetti against a wall and seeing what sticks.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 13:57:12 GMT -6
ECMWF, CMC, and GFS/FV3 also show activity early next week as well. So there are a few interesting things to keep an eye on right now. Just looked at the FV3
Drops just a bit of snow here Saturday through Tuesday
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 11, 2019 13:59:23 GMT -6
A bit. Good lord
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2019 14:00:21 GMT -6
I'm not sure if more people are using voice to text to post on this board, but I will tell you -- the spelling errors and other types of grammar issues are causing my brain to have to work overtime to understand what the heck people are trying to say. I+'5 @1m05+ lik3 r3@ding @ 53ri35 0f p@55w0rd5 @nd +rying +0 d3ciph3r wh@+ i+ i5 p30pl3 @r3 s@ying. Thank you for this! As a former teacher it is driving me crazy!! Also the misuse of "to" instead of "too" is going to make me lose my mind! If we are getting "too much rain" then you don't use "to" you use "too". |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 11, 2019 14:06:11 GMT -6
Spelling isn’t as big a deal as it was when I was
In school! I loved it and hate it when words are misspelled! Some people are corrected and in their defense they say spelling wasn’t my strongest subject! What do you do?
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 11, 2019 14:25:09 GMT -6
I like to. Throw, people off by using incorrect: Punctuation. Grammatik macht Frei!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 14:38:13 GMT -6
Getting caught up on things after hunting snows all weekend in S IL(Jonesboro). They had a touch of ice down there yesterday but roads were fine.
Anyway, I get the feeling tomorrow's event might be sneaky...it kind of has the look of those "surprise" systems that drop a narrow band of snow left of the vort max track. The NAM is trying to drop 1-2" along 44/70 and I think that's possible. It's going to have to snow hard to accumulate though. There's also some good low/mid-level CAA on the backside of the upper low which could cause some SNSH/flurry activity along/N of 70 tomorrow afternoon...especially in IL.
Looking towards this weekend, the SE ridge gets squashed and we get into sort of a "slipstream" pattern with a pretty steady feed of shortwaves. That pattern typically favors light/moderate snowfalls roughly between I-70 and I-80. The system for Friday/Saturday isn't our classic setup for snowfall but there's potential. Upstairs, the EC and GFS are much different but both produce snowfall here which is a good sign, IMO. Looking out there towards next week, models are starting to get that overrunning look again with a very cold airmass oozing underneath SW flow aloft. Right now it looks like snow would be the predominant Ptype but I'm concerned about ice potential...but obviously that's way out there.
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hage
Weather Weenie
Troy, IL
Posts: 72 
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Post by hage on Feb 11, 2019 14:46:55 GMT -6
Getting caught up on things after hunting snows all weekend in S IL(Jonesboro). They had a touch of ice down there yesterday but roads were fine. Those adults are fun aren't they!? Ughhhhh |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2019 14:57:58 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks iffy
The models keep trending weaker, further South and warmer.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 15:22:31 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks iffy The models keep trending weaker, further South and warmer. It's definitely a marginal setup. Models are showing partial phase developing which could help it get going along the river. There's varying signals on how sheared the S piece of energy becomes. It needs to stay "cohesive" and get some DPVA going...but we're not in a very favorable sector of the jetstreak which is concerning. The gradient may help to keep the vorticity stronger though. Basically, I have no idea what will happen. But I think snow will fly tomorrow. |
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