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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 11, 2019 15:23:19 GMT -6
Somebody mentioned a colorado low coming out to affect us a page or two back. I never get too excited abt Northeast CO lows. Oddly lows further north hit us more. 4 corners lows hit us alot too except for this year. I dont see too many CO lows bringing winter weather to us. What do others believe?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 15:54:02 GMT -6
Models are still hinting at convection possible with the precep tomorrow morning which could be a bit of a wildcard
The setup overall is still marginal like others have said. I could see anything from a few stray flakes falling to near whiteout conditions in heavy snow burst
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 11, 2019 15:56:48 GMT -6
Cpc hazards has a heavy snow threat for n and c il into great lakes region and heavy rain threat from texarkana to oh and tn valkeys. Cpc has enhanced probs of below temps and above precip next 2 weeks.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 11, 2019 15:57:47 GMT -6
So get ready wsc in chicago.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 11, 2019 16:00:01 GMT -6
Somebody mentioned a colorado low coming out to affect us a page or two back. I never get too excited abt Northeast CO lows. Oddly lows further north hit us more. 4 corners lows hit us alot too except for this year. I dont see too many CO lows bringing winter weather to us. What do others believe? I've seen those kinds drop some decent snows, but have also seen them bust hard. I remember one in particular where we were forecast for 6-10" and the damn thing just never developed. This was like 2004 or 2005. Speaking of never developing...18z GFS is just a sheared out turd now for Friday. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 16:06:00 GMT -6
Somebody mentioned a colorado low coming out to affect us a page or two back. I never get too excited abt Northeast CO lows. Oddly lows further north hit us more. 4 corners lows hit us alot too except for this year. I dont see too many CO lows bringing winter weather to us. What do others believe? I've seen CO lows drop snow here when they come out flat or slide ESE. They typically favor N of 70 for sure and usually KS/IA/NE etc. But it all depends on the downstream flow orientation...we want a good confluent flow out ahead to suppress any upper ridging or they will shoot north. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 11, 2019 16:07:39 GMT -6
I must say the models are almost annoyingly terrible. What do we even need them for anymore they are pathetic and useless. I remember when they were awesome in 2006 to 2011 then theu became dog poop. I dont get it but clearly more technology is not better. Ok end rant
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 16:07:42 GMT -6
So get ready wsc in chicago. [b My excitement is tempered. Looks like a Wisconsin to Mid Atlantic winter storm jumping, leaving me teased rather than pleased. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 16:08:27 GMT -6
Somebody mentioned a colorado low coming out to affect us a page or two back. I never get too excited abt Northeast CO lows. Oddly lows further north hit us more. 4 corners lows hit us alot too except for this year. I dont see too many CO lows bringing winter weather to us. What do others believe? I've seen those kinds drop some decent snows, but have also seen them bust hard. I remember one in particular where we were forecast for 6-10" and the damn thing just never developed. This was like 2004 or 2005. Speaking of never developing...18z GFS is just a sheared out turd now for Friday. The EURO looked kind of sheared and weaker with the shortwave compared to the GFS but still produces a nice hit of WAA snow. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 11, 2019 16:08:40 GMT -6
So get ready wsc in chicago. [b My excitement is tempered. Looks like a Wisconsin to Mid Atlantic winter storm jumping, leaving me teased rather than pleased. Hahahaha!! Thats funny right there! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 16:17:01 GMT -6
Right on cue the 18z gfs shows a textbook Colorado low experience.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 16:24:46 GMT -6
I must say the models are almost annoyingly terrible. What do we even need them for anymore they are pathetic and useless. I remember when they were awesome in 2006 to 2011 then theu became dog poop. I dont get it but clearly more technology is not better. Ok end rant I actually think models have lost some accuracy or at least consistency in the short to mid range(D1-5) but have become substantially better in the longer range. I mean some of these storms have been pegged at like 10+ days out...you never used to see that...but some of them give the models fits within 72hrs leading up to the event. I think one thing that hasn't helped is the plethora of different models out there nowadays. It's confusing and hard to pick out trends or biases when you look at so many different runs. I wish they would take the computing power used to create all these different models and off hour runs and utilize that to improve data assimilation and processing with a few core global models run twice daily and one or two higher resolution, regional models that run hourly or every 3-6 hours. I just think they are trying to do too much with all these models and trying to push the envelope with constantly higher resolutions. When they actually start to get some consistency out of a model they come out with a newer "upgraded" version and it throws everything into chaos again. Personally, I think they are trying to take the forecaster out of forecasting... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 16:32:01 GMT -6
I think quanity has become more important than quality in the weather model world
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 11, 2019 16:46:18 GMT -6
I'm Just Glad Wednesday & Valentine's Day Are Above Freezing Now If We Can Keep Thursday Dry I May Be Able To Sell Out (Like Planned) ⚘🌷🍓🍫 Rose's $19.99 & up Berries $13.99 & up facebook.com/thefruitstand /    |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 11, 2019 16:49:05 GMT -6
I must say the models are almost annoyingly terrible. What do we even need them for anymore they are pathetic and useless. I remember when they were awesome in 2006 to 2011 then theu became dog poop. I dont get it but clearly more technology is not better. Ok end rant I actually think models have lost some accuracy or at least consistency in the short to mid range(D1-5) but have become substantially better in the longer range. I mean some of these storms have been pegged at like 10+ days out...Personally, I think they are trying to take the forecaster out of forecasting... True, True and Sadly True. The long range guidance in my opinion has just been pretty remarkable this year. They may show snow and end up as rain but nearly all storms it seems that have showed up atleast for a couple of days in that range - have in fact come to fruition just maybe different precip type. But day 1-4 imo it seems have been pretty bad especially after the big January snow. Seems like day 4.5-6 is a better call lately to go by. Glad I’m not the only one to notice that. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 11, 2019 16:51:03 GMT -6
I must say the models are almost annoyingly terrible. What do we even need them for anymore they are pathetic and useless. I remember when they were awesome in 2006 to 2011 then theu became dog poop. I dont get it but clearly more technology is not better. Ok end rant I actually think models have lost some accuracy or at least consistency in the short to mid range(D1-5) but have become substantially better in the longer range. I mean some of these storms have been pegged at like 10+ days out...you never used to see that...but some of them give the models fits within 72hrs leading up to the event. I think one thing that hasn't helped is the plethora of different models out there nowadays. It's confusing and hard to pick out trends or biases when you look at so many different runs. I wish they would take the computing power used to create all these different models and off hour runs and utilize that to improve data assimilation and processing with a few core global models run twice daily and one or two higher resolution, regional models that run hourly or every 3-6 hours. I just think they are trying to do too much with all these models and trying to push the envelope with constantly higher resolutions. When they actually start to get some consistency out of a model they come out with a newer "upgraded" version and it throws everything into chaos again. Personally, I think they are trying to take the forecaster out of forecasting... There is such a thing as data overload (what i call it). Conceptually it wld make sense that more data = more accurate outcome. But realistically, that muddies the waters imo. Of course a few years ago when we had this discussion, i was thinking that more data wld initially lead to poorer accuracy at first but then accuracy wld improve over time. I dont think it has. Dont get me wrong...im only referring to models, not forecaster accuracy. Thankfully, chris and others know whats going on and when to set the models aside. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 11, 2019 16:59:26 GMT -6
Problem is other weather outlets have also been putting out crazy forecasts and you can tell it’s strictly model worshipping and not basing it off patterns and history that are critical to the forecast. There are, in my opinion only 3-4 Mets in STL that look at the realistic nature of what should be expected rather than what the models paints - two especially of which are Chris and Fish. It’s almost as if some of these others forecast strictly on what the models show and not what they should know from background history.
Hence - taking the forecaster or of forecasting and replacing it with someone easy on the eyes.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 17:14:49 GMT -6
Problem is other weather outlets have also been putting out crazy forecasts and you can tell it’s strictly model worshipping and not basing it off patterns and history that are critical to the forecast. There are, in my opinion only 3-4 Mets in STL that look at the realistic nature of what should be expected rather than what the models paints - two especially of which are Chris and Fish. It’s almost as if some of these others forecast strictly on what the models show and not what they should know from background history. Hence - taking the forecaster or of forecasting and replacing it with someone easy on the eyes. There are many great female meteorologists. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2019 17:17:13 GMT -6
The models were wprst last year.
Like were totally correcting from showing mid latitude cyclones 4 days out to ending up with nothing.
And going back like 5 years ago and further back in time.
There was a SE bias/NW trend.
That has vanished. If anything models tend to be overly amped in the medium range leading to NW bias.
But it was horrible how many times 4-5 days out models had shortwave set to bring a band of accumulating Snow from Central Oklahoma to South of 44/64.
And the Snow band would be a witchita to Springfield Il event.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2019 17:31:25 GMT -6
I'm Just Glad Wednesday & Valentine's Day Are Above Freezing Now If We Can Keep Thursday Dry I May Be Able To Sell Out (Like Planned) ⚘🌷🍓🍫 Rose's $19.99 & up Berries $13.99 & up facebook.com/thefruitstand / I will try and stop by tomorrow |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 11, 2019 17:35:36 GMT -6
Problem is other weather outlets have also been putting out crazy forecasts and you can tell it’s strictly model worshipping and not basing it off patterns and history that are critical to the forecast. There are, in my opinion only 3-4 Mets in STL that look at the realistic nature of what should be expected rather than what the models paints - two especially of which are Chris and Fish. It’s almost as if some of these others forecast strictly on what the models show and not what they should know from background history. Hence - taking the forecaster or of forecasting and replacing it with someone easy on the eyes. There are many great female meteorologists. Agreed there are... but I can name several that are not great including other younger guy mets but let’s not go there. It is simply a statement if you compare other stations to the actual outcome. Some of which are also complete **HONK** and think the public is just stupid and take reports with a grain of salt. Even during tornadoes and massive hail storms. Hell, as an avid hurricane chaser I could say they don’t even care about the public as much as they do destruction during hurricanes and over-bragging storm intensity with the most exaggerated wind maps. That 24hr weather station is really good at that by the way. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2019 17:55:31 GMT -6
Ok, lets not call mets, or anyone else a holes. This been your snowman mod.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 11, 2019 18:00:03 GMT -6
Ok, lets not call mets, or anyone else a holes. This been your snowman mod. Coming from the person who curses the most in as many creative ways possible. Ha LMFAO! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2019 18:19:09 GMT -6
Calling people names like that is a no no. It has beeen said on here many times no name calling. Now. No more.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 11, 2019 18:27:21 GMT -6
Maybe a new thread for Valentines Day would help bring in some snow. We need something to change this ugly rainy pattern.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 18:54:34 GMT -6
The models were wprst last year. Like were totally correcting from showing mid latitude cyclones 4 days out to ending up with nothing. And going back like 5 years ago and further back in time. There was a SE bias/NW trend. That has vanished. If anything models tend to be overly amped in the medium range leading to NW bias. But it was horrible how many times 4-5 days out models had shortwave set to bring a band of accumulating Snow from Central Oklahoma to South of 44/64. And the Snow band would be a witchita to Springfield Il event. Yeah, they were absolutely atrocious last year and seem to be going back to that recently. I've never been burned so many times as last year and I got burned again this year from banking on the last minute NW shift that never happened...quite the opposite, actually. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 11, 2019 19:43:14 GMT -6
The RAP and HRRR have essentially lost any chance for snow in the morning.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 11, 2019 20:06:46 GMT -6
Namnest back to dudville.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2019 20:17:47 GMT -6
Guess we can officially write tomorrow off.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 11, 2019 20:23:24 GMT -6
I just read that Boston has only 2.3 inches of snow this year....they are having our winters from the last few years
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