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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2019 20:26:41 GMT -6
Might be able to squeeze out some snow showers tomorrow but any accumulations are looking unlikely
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 11, 2019 20:30:08 GMT -6
I must say the models are almost annoyingly terrible. What do we even need them for anymore they are pathetic and useless. I remember when they were awesome in 2006 to 2011 then theu became dog poop. I dont get it but clearly more technology is not better. Ok end rant Totally agree. Any decent forecaster should be able to extrapolate current observations days ahead with superior reliability and skill than a model. I mean if a model can't get a surface low track down to a gnat's a$$ five days out cycle after cycle then it's not even useful as guidance. Seriously, the atmosphere is NOT that complex. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 11, 2019 21:06:32 GMT -6
Getting caught up on things after hunting snows all weekend in S IL(Jonesboro). They had a touch of ice down there yesterday but roads were fine. Anyway, I get the feeling tomorrow's event might be sneaky...it kind of has the look of those "surprise" systems that drop a narrow band of snow left of the vort max track. The NAM is trying to drop 1-2" along 44/70 and I think that's possible. It's going to have to snow hard to accumulate though. There's also some good low/mid-level CAA on the backside of the upper low which could cause some SNSH/flurry activity along/N of 70 tomorrow afternoon...especially in IL. Looking towards this weekend, the SE ridge gets squashed and we get into sort of a "slipstream" pattern with a pretty steady feed of shortwaves. That pattern typically favors light/moderate snowfalls roughly between I-70 and I-80. The system for Friday/Saturday isn't our classic setup for snowfall but there's potential. Upstairs, the EC and GFS are much different but both produce snowfall here which is a good sign, IMO. Looking out there towards next week, models are starting to get that overrunning look again with a very cold airmass oozing underneath SW flow aloft. Right now it looks like snow would be the predominant Ptype but I'm concerned about ice potential...but obviously that's way out there. So... question is, did you do any good? My buddy hunted at Kennett this past weekend and all they got was 1! He is trying to decide if he wants to go back next weekend or not. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 11, 2019 21:09:39 GMT -6
Getting caught up on things after hunting snows all weekend in S IL(Jonesboro). They had a touch of ice down there yesterday but roads were fine. Anyway, I get the feeling tomorrow's event might be sneaky...it kind of has the look of those "surprise" systems that drop a narrow band of snow left of the vort max track. The NAM is trying to drop 1-2" along 44/70 and I think that's possible. It's going to have to snow hard to accumulate though. There's also some good low/mid-level CAA on the backside of the upper low which could cause some SNSH/flurry activity along/N of 70 tomorrow afternoon...especially in IL. Looking towards this weekend, the SE ridge gets squashed and we get into sort of a "slipstream" pattern with a pretty steady feed of shortwaves. That pattern typically favors light/moderate snowfalls roughly between I-70 and I-80. The system for Friday/Saturday isn't our classic setup for snowfall but there's potential. Upstairs, the EC and GFS are much different but both produce snowfall here which is a good sign, IMO. Looking out there towards next week, models are starting to get that overrunning look again with a very cold airmass oozing underneath SW flow aloft. Right now it looks like snow would be the predominant Ptype but I'm concerned about ice potential...but obviously that's way out there. So... question is, did you do any good? My buddy hunted at Kennett this past weekend and all they got was 1! He is trying to decide if he wants to go back next weekend or not. Been hearing it's a lot of adults and crappy weather. World championship in stuttgart wasn't that impressive from what I've seen. Looking to go president's day if we get good goose weather. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2019 21:17:18 GMT -6
Where’d the Friday system go?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 21:19:26 GMT -6
Where’d the Friday system go? [ Not happening...Postponed to Saturday-Sunday. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 21:23:44 GMT -6
We are going full ice storm up here by the lake, you guys aren’t missing much.
Very windy, so things may get ugly if we don’t get above freezing by midnight.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 11, 2019 21:52:04 GMT -6
Where’d the Friday system go? [ Not happening...Postponed to Saturday-Sunday. It was just there on the 12z runs. On all but the FV3. Now, the FV3 is the only one that has it, and it’s like, cape g south. Glad I don’t have to do this for a living. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 22:02:58 GMT -6
[ Not happening...Postponed to Saturday-Sunday. It was just there on the 12z runs. On all but the FV3. Now, the FV3 is the only one that has it, and it’s like, cape g south. Glad I don’t have to do this for a living. 00z gfs has a little 1-2 incher Saturday lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2019 22:04:50 GMT -6
Getting caught up on things after hunting snows all weekend in S IL(Jonesboro). They had a touch of ice down there yesterday but roads were fine. Anyway, I get the feeling tomorrow's event might be sneaky...it kind of has the look of those "surprise" systems that drop a narrow band of snow left of the vort max track. The NAM is trying to drop 1-2" along 44/70 and I think that's possible. It's going to have to snow hard to accumulate though. There's also some good low/mid-level CAA on the backside of the upper low which could cause some SNSH/flurry activity along/N of 70 tomorrow afternoon...especially in IL. Looking towards this weekend, the SE ridge gets squashed and we get into sort of a "slipstream" pattern with a pretty steady feed of shortwaves. That pattern typically favors light/moderate snowfalls roughly between I-70 and I-80. The system for Friday/Saturday isn't our classic setup for snowfall but there's potential. Upstairs, the EC and GFS are much different but both produce snowfall here which is a good sign, IMO. Looking out there towards next week, models are starting to get that overrunning look again with a very cold airmass oozing underneath SW flow aloft. Right now it looks like snow would be the predominant Ptype but I'm concerned about ice potential...but obviously that's way out there. So... question is, did you do any good? My buddy hunted at Kennett this past weekend and all they got was 1! He is trying to decide if he wants to go back next weekend or not. Phisherman pretty much summed it up...lots of smart adults, very few juvies and the weather hasn't been great so far. Our pit got 8 on Friday...and the goose egg Sat and Sun. We had a big flock...hundreds of birds...come tornadoing down into us and they came over about 70 and the guide called the shot on them. 8 guns completely whiffed. Talk about a let down. But it was mesmerizing watching those birds come down like that from probably 2500ft. We had a few single birds or pairs that just came right in on Friday and most of the birds were nicely plumed adults. We shot a very nice ross goose and another pit shot a double banded bird with a color leg tag that was banded up near Barrow, AK 8 months earlier. Also, we stayed in Josh Jackson's lodge and got to hang with him for 3 nights. He fried up a nice mess of crappie and a ton of seasoned fries for us Saturday night. He had the state record crappie mount that his buddy caught and the certificate from the state underneath. And an unbelievable collection of mounts and antlers. He's quite the sportsman and a real nice guy. Most of the people you meet in far Southern Illinois are kind and laid back folks. But it's a different world down there for sure...lots of poverty which is sad. There's really just not much of an economy down there other than the school, prison and the power plant. The hunting brings in a little bit of money at least and helps out the winter wheat fields that the snows can destroy. And of course, they are extremely overpopulated so anything to reduce their numbers is beneficial to the tundra habitat where many waterfowl other than snows nest. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2019 22:10:30 GMT -6
00z ggem looks decent for Friday though.
Gfs tries again with a storm Sunday.
I think from a pure volume standpoint most of the board will see accumulating snow in the next 7 days.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2019 22:16:37 GMT -6
Stuff around OKC/TUL, OK looks pretty solid. This is where tomorrow AM's stuff is coming from and it looks a bit more amped than what models having been showing and weakening it too quickly. Surely something will come out of it especially along and south of I-44/I-70.
HRRR/RAP have been holding it together a bit longer in their 3Z runs but still weakens it significantly as it moves through.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 11, 2019 23:05:48 GMT -6
We going to start cooling off soon? My temp has gone up to 40 now
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2019 0:30:45 GMT -6
Lol, euro has 3-6 right through the metro Friday evening
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 0:48:34 GMT -6
Lol, euro has 3-6 right through the metro Friday evening Very very noooiiiice |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 0:57:33 GMT -6
Ya the euro has widespread 6”+ amounts right through the area
GFS/FV3 are pretty similar
Think we might have something
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2019 1:06:48 GMT -6
Kuchera gives the area 12-15 inches over the next 10 days, haha
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 2:26:05 GMT -6
Models have the backside precip in the morning.
Just need to change to snow.
I work on lindell at 9am at a senior citizen apartment complex.
So let it snow.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 12, 2019 3:46:02 GMT -6
Stuff coming up I-44 looks to be weakening as it moves in. Thinking probably a stray snow shower on the west side of the river in a few hours.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 12, 2019 5:46:21 GMT -6
Current radar sure looks a lot like the 3kmNAM from yesterday. Here comes the snow...
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Post by mchafin on Feb 12, 2019 6:07:43 GMT -6
Lol, euro has 3-6 right through the metro Friday evening Very very noooiiiice I was hoping for six to noine |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 12, 2019 6:39:32 GMT -6
That second batch does look a little more robust then the first one
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 12, 2019 6:43:54 GMT -6
Hello hello..
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2019 6:52:22 GMT -6
Dilly dilly
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 6:54:48 GMT -6
I'm guessing this stuff is rain since everyone is quiet
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 12, 2019 7:07:00 GMT -6
Just heard from my friend. It has started as Light Snow in New Haven.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 12, 2019 7:20:08 GMT -6
Very Light Snow now in Villa Ridge.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 7:24:04 GMT -6
Rain mixing with snow in Belleville.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2019 7:26:50 GMT -6
Lt snow in u town. Goodnight. Heh
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 12, 2019 7:33:18 GMT -6
All snow coming down at a good clip in O'Fallon.
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