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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 11:34:41 GMT -6
My silent mantra this week will be, no ice no ice no ice no ice ... Maybe we should start a club. ;-) |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 14, 2019 11:35:52 GMT -6
My silent mantra this week will be, no ice no ice no ice no ice ... Maybe we should start a club. ;-) I think that we already sort of have one. LOL |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 11:35:56 GMT -6
That is very good consistentcy for 5 days out The EPS seems similar. The GEFS has a good amount of qpf as well. Where are you guys seeing the updated super gfs? I can’t find a updated 12z run anywhere? Tropical Tidbits |
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mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
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Post by mmkjmg on Jan 14, 2019 11:36:48 GMT -6
Pretty good consensus on the GEFS where the surface low is going. That would put the whole area in the target zone for ice and snow  Impressive. Super GfS cuts it a lot more as well. I don't even consider myself an amateur just a lurker more than anything, but do the tighter isobars(?) mean strong winds? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 11:37:28 GMT -6
That is very good consistentcy for 5 days out The EPS seems similar. The GEFS has a good amount of qpf as well. Where are you guys seeing the updated super gfs? I can’t find a updated 12z run anywhere? COD site is getting it in
It's warmer on the front end than the other models but has a good thumping of backside snow with blizzard conditions
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 11:40:28 GMT -6
Impressive. Super GfS cuts it a lot more as well. I don't even consider myself an amateur just a lurker more than anything, but do the tighter isobars(?) mean strong winds? Yes |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2019 11:42:23 GMT -6
That's crazy the weekend storm is sitting over the Bering Sea. I'm currently sitting under it duck hunting on St. Paul Island. It's been brutal. Peak was yesterday afternoon right after the center of circulation moved through. Had gusts over 60. Finally looks like it's going to be calmer today. Harlequin / Eider ? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 11:42:53 GMT -6
I always try to relate systems to those I remember in the past. They're all their own animal but it's good to compare notes. I recall one around 2000 give or take a year or two where we had light rain off and on through the day, then it kicked to snow with major winds and cold. I think my location had about 4 inches. Way too early to pin down obviously but I'm getting that impression.
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hage
Weather Weenie
Troy, IL
Posts: 72
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Post by hage on Jan 14, 2019 11:44:36 GMT -6
That's crazy the weekend storm is sitting over the Bering Sea. I'm currently sitting under it duck hunting on St. Paul Island. It's been brutal. Peak was yesterday afternoon right after the center of circulation moved through. Had gusts over 60. Finally looks like it's going to be calmer today. Harlequin / Eider ? Yes sir! |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2019 11:54:01 GMT -6
As it stands now...I think this storm produces less snow for us than previous (that is not hard to do considering how rare 8-12+ storms are around here.) But the wind...the ice on the front end and dropping temps will make it a completely different experience.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 11:56:00 GMT -6
If ice is the deal on the front end... the wind will make for a power nightmare. I know you all know that, but had to state the obvious.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 14, 2019 11:58:40 GMT -6
Does anyone have the link to the official snowfall totals for the storm? I'd like to see what the official report is for Waterloo if they have it. I think I may have received a foot using the official measuring protocol but compaction and melting made it appear closer to 8-9".
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 12:02:12 GMT -6
Something for folks to check on (including me) as a lesson learned from a wind driven rain to near zero cold a couple of years ago. Make sure you put ArmorAll or WD-40 or something on your door weatherstripping. Including the garage door. Our garage door froze down so solid we bent a support strut and tore up the weatherstripping to get it open.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 12:03:43 GMT -6
If ice is the deal on the front end... the wind will make for a power nightmare. I know you all know that, but had to state the obvious. NO ICE!!! NO ICE!!1. NO ICE!!! |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 12:03:49 GMT -6
Something for folks to check on (including me) as a lesson learned from a wind driven rain to near zero cold a couple of years ago. Make sure you put ArmorAll or WD-40 or something on your door weatherstripping. Including the garage door. Our garage door froze down so solid we bent a support strut and tore up the weatherstripping to get it open. Great advice! Thank you! |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 14, 2019 12:08:35 GMT -6
I see that we are getting below zero Saturday night. I'm chanting no blizzard no blizzard no blizzard. I think I'll talk the hubs into grocery shopping Thursday night. At least I don't have to work the weekend. Thanks for that weather strip tip. Our garage faces north.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 14, 2019 12:15:13 GMT -6
Up here in the great white north of SPI, my temp all the way to DEC this morning never got out of the single digits. Looking forward this week, any precip from midweek will be in the form of ice. My snowpack has frozen solid and even under near the unfrozen ground. I would venture to say I70 corridor north could have an annoying ice event midweek probably all of the way down to the 64 corridor. Any daytime melting will quickly freeze at night.
IRT this weekend’s system, snow totals for the last event didn’t start to go upwards until 24-36 hours prior to the event. PWATS are insane for this time of year with an arctic airmass feeding the cold this time. A different system, but I think the players on the field are juiced up.
I will say this, the danger level from this weekend’s system will be much greater even if snow totals aren’t there. Crashing temps, high winds, ice then snow will not allow the roads to be nearly perfect 36 hours post 8”+ snow.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 14, 2019 12:15:18 GMT -6
As it stands now...I think this storm produces less snow for us than previous (that is not hard to do considering how rare 8-12+ storms are around here.) But the wind...the ice on the front end and dropping temps will make it a completely different experience. Not surprising since the ice on front end would cut into snow totals. The wind and bitter cold will add to potential severity of the storm for sure. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 14, 2019 12:22:04 GMT -6
That's crazy the weekend storm is sitting over the Bering Sea. I'm currently sitting under it duck hunting on St. Paul Island. It's been brutal. Peak was yesterday afternoon right after the center of circulation moved through. Had gusts over 60. Finally looks like it's going to be calmer today. Do you mind sampling the storm for us? 🤣😂 |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 14, 2019 12:25:28 GMT -6
Check out the GOES West Water Vapor imagery! The High over Vancouver is strong! Crazy looking!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 12:33:44 GMT -6
Euro still showing its rain to ice to snow solution
That’s what I’m leaning towards right now to
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Post by weatherj on Jan 14, 2019 12:35:13 GMT -6
Euro still showing its rain to ice to snow solution That’s what I’m leaning towards right now to I take it the whole area gets impacted at some point. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 12:38:58 GMT -6
Snow, What type of ice and snow accumulation is the Euro showing
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 12:45:23 GMT -6
My favorite is the FV3 showing persistent -30 degree temps as far south as central Illinois. That is insane.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 12:47:51 GMT -6
My favorite is the FV3 showing persistent -30 degree temps as far south as central Illinois. That is insane. FV3 has been extremely aggressive with the degree of cold, but I agree it does show the magnitude of cold air in play. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:02:37 GMT -6
My favorite is the FV3 showing persistent -30 degree temps as far south as central Illinois. That is insane. The fact that it's 50*F below in Denali right now would lend some credit to sub-zero temps for sure...maybe well below zero. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:05:40 GMT -6
That's crazy the weekend storm is sitting over the Bering Sea. I'm currently sitting under it duck hunting on St. Paul Island. It's been brutal. Peak was yesterday afternoon right after the center of circulation moved through. Had gusts over 60. Finally looks like it's going to be calmer today. That's awesome...a sea duck hunt is pretty much the grail hunt for me! Be safe and send pics! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 13:05:41 GMT -6
The Euro is actually pretty similar to the GFS. I'm really not seeing much of a prolonged ice threat out of this one. I see a rain changing to snow scenario with advisory level accumulations.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 13:09:13 GMT -6
The Euro is actually pretty similar to the GFS. I'm really not seeing much of a prolonged ice threat out of this one. I see a rain changing to snow scenario with advisory level accumulations. I dunno, any time you are talking about a shallow arctic airmass being pulled into a storm it's prudent to include ice potential. There might not be a widespread area of ice but I would say it's likely that some areas receive at least minor glazing with snow/sleet on top. The EURO and NAM typically resolve shallow arctic air the best, BTW...the GFS is usually too warm in these situations until it finally "sees" the cold air. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 13:13:51 GMT -6
I like the next storm in the chain on the euro and gfs...
Great negative tilt in the day 8-10 range.
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