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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 15:20:46 GMT -6
What are the chances the cold air gets in here sooner and Friday isn't as warm (upper 30s) as its showing now? 57.39985% |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 15:25:49 GMT -6
With consensus a bit further north, really concerned abt the shallow cold friday night. Im conceptually thinking, rain to ice to sleet, then turning to snow late in the game, so accum numbers shldnt be that big but the impact cld be significant owing to the ice, cold, and winds.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 15:36:11 GMT -6
I agree Beaker. The more I look at this setup the more it screams ice storm in and around the metro. Still way to early to know for certain but that’s just the vibe I’m getting
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 15:36:24 GMT -6
In regards to the ice...could the snowpack (aka the newly formed North Central Missouri Glacier) make a difference as far as subfreezing temps seeping into the system?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2019 15:43:54 GMT -6
With consensus a bit further north, really concerned abt the shallow cold friday night. Im conceptually thinking, rain to ice to sleet, then turning to snow late in the game, so accum numbers shldnt be that big but the impact cld be significant owing to the ice, cold, and winds. That is the direction I am leaning.. snowfall on the tail end of 1-3 maybe 2-4 ish..on top of zr and sleet. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 14, 2019 15:45:11 GMT -6
By the way... i measured in my grass...and I still have 9" on my deck and table...down to7" it is melting from above and below on the deck and table...but only from above in the grass....and it is doing so slowly.
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Mirror Mirror
Wishcaster
Wentzville, MO
Posts: 161 
Snowfall Events: 2013-14 - Est. Total 25.8"
2014-15 - Est. Total 14.5"
2015-18 - Did it snow?
2018-19 - 22.2" (so far)
Jan 13 2019 - 12.0"
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Post by Mirror Mirror on Jan 14, 2019 15:54:00 GMT -6
It definitely looks like good potential for another possibly significant to major storm coming out a few days after this next one. And there's lots of cold air sloshing around to go with it. I may be in the minority, but keep 'em coming! |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 14, 2019 16:03:35 GMT -6
With consensus a bit further north, really concerned abt the shallow cold friday night. Im conceptually thinking, rain to ice to sleet, then turning to snow late in the game, so accum numbers shldnt be that big but the impact cld be significant owing to the ice, cold, and winds. That is the direction I am leaning.. snowfall on the tail end of 1-3 maybe 2-4 ish..on top of zr and sleet. Would that still be a major winter storm? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 16:10:33 GMT -6
I can see saturday with those "5 minute blizzards"...broken flakeage that doesnt really add to the light to moderate accums that we will have gotten in the early morning hours. Good weekend to stay inside. Wont comment beyond next weekend but things stay active according to gfs and cpc has equal chances on the precip category. Gfs maintains enough progressiveness rt now to stay in the game but i wld expect suppression to become a word of the corner toward the eom.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 16:17:09 GMT -6
I wld like to see how the midweek system affects us. I think the potential is for a high impact system this weekend but i am leery of locking in on that. Mght be one of those moderate impact of fr rn plus a low impact of sleet and snow with the bigger story of windchills equaling a high impact overall.
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Post by yypc on Jan 14, 2019 16:34:14 GMT -6
So...rain to flurries on Saturday? Back to regularly scheduled stl winter program
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 14, 2019 16:37:04 GMT -6
So...rain to flurries on Saturday? Back to regularly scheduled stl winter program No. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 14, 2019 16:37:52 GMT -6
So...rain to flurries on Saturday? Back to regularly scheduled stl winter program uh... who said that. no one |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 16:38:17 GMT -6
So...rain to flurries on Saturday? Back to regularly scheduled stl winter program We don’t need a foot of snow around here to have a major winter storm |
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Post by jason0101 on Jan 14, 2019 16:39:33 GMT -6
The weekend system looks impressive. Also remember that models didnt have a grasp on how much this thing was going to drop until 48-72 hours out.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 14, 2019 16:45:41 GMT -6
Would that still be a major winter storm? It's in the eye of the beerholder. Was the frizzlepocalypse in Dec a couple years ago a major storm? It was one of the most deadliest on MO highways ever. |
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on Jan 14, 2019 16:53:50 GMT -6
Would that still be a major winter storm? It's in the eye of the beerholder. Was the frizzlepocalypse in Dec a couple years ago a major storm? It was one of the most deadliest on MO highways ever. Yup, that's the storm that "dumped" about 1/10" of ice on us. I left work as soon as it started. Not even 2 miles into my 8 mile commute...an elderly gentleman center punched a tree. Pulled him out, kept his blood off me, and wrapped him up in a blanket until EMS arrived about 10 minutes later. As you know...ANY ice is a major event... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 16:54:22 GMT -6
We don’t need a foot of snow around here to have a major winter storm Especially if there's ice involved. Remember December 2017 and that slightest hint of ice on the roads that caused rush hour to last until midnight or later? I Im never going to forget that event. I was stuck on 255 near Colombia, IL for hours as traffic came to a sudden halt. The entire highway turned into a sheet of ice. Traffic only started moving when some plows came through with sand and salt to give vehicles some traction. Then after that I couldn't even get in my neighborhood because cars were spinning off the road trying to make it down one of the hills in it. Every single road was a sheet of ice. Crazy night |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 14, 2019 17:05:02 GMT -6
Met on 4+1 already put up a snow map of a few inches, with no mention of any ice concern. Not sure that was a good call.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 17:08:44 GMT -6
Met on 4+1 already put up a snow map of a few inches, with no mention of any ice concern. Not sure that was a good call. Putting a forecast out with details of ice isusually made closer to t0. Nws doesnt have ice ither. Just rain friday night turning to snow after 7am saturday. Its a general forecast for now. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 17:20:30 GMT -6
Met on 4+1 already put up a snow map of a few inches, with no mention of any ice concern. Not sure that was a good call. I watched him a supper time Sunday night. He was already using all kinds of definitives like it couldn't change in the next 6 days. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 17:21:44 GMT -6
Met on 4+1 already put up a snow map of a few inches, with no mention of any ice concern. Not sure that was a good call. Both the EPS and GEFS have a mean of 3” in the metro(more north less south) so that’s not a bad forecast as this stage of the game. Icing depends on many variables and is very fickle so hard to say if/when it will happen and how much right now |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 17:25:19 GMT -6
Met on 4+1 already put up a snow map of a few inches, with no mention of any ice concern. Not sure that was a good call. Both the EPS and GEFS have a mean of 3” in the metro(more north less south) so that’s not a bad forecast as this stage of the game. Icing depends on many variables and is very fickle so hard to say if/when it will happen and how much right now EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 17:34:55 GMT -6
Both the EPS and GEFS have a mean of 3” in the metro(more north less south) so that’s not a bad forecast as this stage of the game. Icing depends on many variables and is very fickle so hard to say if/when it will happen and how much right now EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. 6-8” |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 17:37:23 GMT -6
EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. 6-8” You the best! Thanks. Now, let's get this thing to negatively tilt and get everyone good. Still think the next one looks better for the classic 6-10 inch deformation zone. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 17:44:21 GMT -6
I'm afraid this one is trending a bit more sheared out. Just my 2 cents.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 17:47:16 GMT -6
I'm afraid this one is trending a bit more sheared out. Just my 2 cents. It looks more inverted trough like to me. With a positive tilt I could see the storm blowing its energy on a frogen band. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 18:02:14 GMT -6
I'm afraid this one is trending a bit more sheared out. Just my 2 cents. It looks more inverted trough like to me. With a positive tilt I could see the storm blowing its energy on a frogen band. Perhaps. And someone gets the dry spot between the rain (or zr) out front and the fgen band. Kinda how the 18z fv3 shows. I've been screwed by that enough times to recognize it haha. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 18:05:58 GMT -6
Both the EPS and GEFS have a mean of 3” in the metro(more north less south) so that’s not a bad forecast as this stage of the game. Icing depends on many variables and is very fickle so hard to say if/when it will happen and how much right now EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. Illustrates north trend....we ended up changing to rain in stc for a bit during the course of the storm and that wasnt expected even a day before. What makes this different is the big push of artic air, but this system has the potential to zip along ahead of the cold. I wonder in order to maximize our snow potential, if what we really need is a weaker system that wont warm up the ams ahead of the surface low. |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 14, 2019 18:07:49 GMT -6
Still betting it will trend further south?
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