|
|
Post by TK on Jan 14, 2019 20:40:31 GMT -6
I just noticed that Chris's Corner hit a milestone...100,000+ posts. I hear the lucky 100,000 post wins a free car! |
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 14, 2019 20:40:35 GMT -6
The fields with snow in town look like pillowtop mattresses. Rain, when it falls on snow does some cool things sometimes.
|
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 14, 2019 21:24:46 GMT -6
Any word on the NAM?
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 14, 2019 21:31:42 GMT -6
Outside reliability window. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 21:32:58 GMT -6
It only goes out to 84 hours
|
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 14, 2019 21:35:45 GMT -6
You asked this a few days ago as well in regards to this system  NAM is shorter term model so it only goes out to 84 hrs. For now we have to look at the Globals (GFS, EURO, GGEM, ICON) |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 21:36:55 GMT -6
The icon is still plenty south, with a good hit of snow, it did well last storm, it picked up the track the earliest.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 21:37:06 GMT -6
00z Icon is like a best case scenario for Saint Louis.
Nice
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 21:39:29 GMT -6
Ya the ICON is our friend right now. Nice strong Memphis low and a big backside snowstorm for the area
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2019 21:41:56 GMT -6
Here is the final storm briefing. Perhaps a moderator can copy this image to the previous thread for posterity? www.weather.gov/lsx/01_11_2019This was definitely a historic storm. I posted the NWS link and your pic. |
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 14, 2019 21:44:19 GMT -6
You asked this a few days ago as well in regards to this system NAM is shorter term model so it only goes out to 84 hrs. For now we have to look at the Globals (GFS, EURO, GGEM, ICON) Actually, I have never asked about the NAM or any other map before but thanks for the info. |
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 14, 2019 22:01:23 GMT -6
You asked this a few days ago as well in regards to this system NAM is shorter term model so it only goes out to 84 hrs. For now we have to look at the Globals (GFS, EURO, GGEM, ICON) Actually, I have never asked about the NAM or any other map before but thanks for the info. I just recall someone asking about the NAM yesterday in regards to the next storm. Sorry if it wasn't you. |
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 14, 2019 22:05:29 GMT -6
Actually, I have never asked about the NAM or any other map before but thanks for the info. I just recall someone asking about the NAM yesterday in regards to the next storm. Sorry if it wasn't you. No apology necessary. We are all good. I appreciate learning what maps run when and the time frame the run for. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:05:32 GMT -6
00z gfs is interesting. It actually closes off the 500mb vort for a bit.
I have seen this setup before. There will be two maxima with very little in between.
Just my hunch.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 22:08:24 GMT -6
00z gfs is interesting. It actually closes off the 500mb vort for a bit. I have seen this setup before. There will be two maxima with very little in between. Just my hunch. Ya it closes off and looks like it might wrap up, but then gets quickly sheared out.
That runs sucks for the metro. Riding the rain/snow line almost the entire storm
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:11:33 GMT -6
00z gfs is interesting. It actually closes off the 500mb vort for a bit. I have seen this setup before. There will be two maxima with very little in between. Just my hunch. Ya it closes off and looks like it might wrap up, but then gets quickly sheared out.
That runs sucks for the metro. Riding the rain/snow line almost the entire storm
I think if you want a big storm in the metro (6+ inches), then the closed 500mb low is a step in the right direction. The low actually does pull north a bit before being sheared as you alluded to. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 22:11:51 GMT -6
Just looking at the soundings, the GFS is only a degree or two off from a sleet/FZR nightmare for the metro
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 14, 2019 22:12:01 GMT -6
GFS seems to have something different every single run lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:14:47 GMT -6
00z ggem is nice.
I like the trends in a more negative tilted storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 22:16:04 GMT -6
GFS seems to have something different every single run lol Its been acting wonky all winter and did the worst of any model with the last storm
Its something to feed my weather addiction with though lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:18:59 GMT -6
So now both the ggem and gfs briefly close the 500mb vort off. If that trend continues, then we should see a monster develop. Obviously a big if, but at least partially supported by the seasonal trend.
Ukmet and euro will be interesting.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 22:22:16 GMT -6
Yea I wouldn't put much stock in that Gfs solution. It'll catch on to reality eventually, whatever that is.
Icon has done well and looks great. Good to see our neighbor to the north look better too.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 22:23:04 GMT -6
Super wolf blood moon sunday night. I wonder if it will be picturesque with snow on the ground.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:25:04 GMT -6
Yea I wouldn't put much stock in that Gfs solution. It'll catch on to reality eventually, whatever that is. Icon has done well and looks great. Good to see our neighbor to the north look better too. I am heavily sleep deprived, but the ggem and gfs look very similar to me. The ggem closes off for an extra 6 hours and goes a little more negatively tilted. Other than that, it's just the ggem being biased towards being too cold. |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 22:26:05 GMT -6
Yea I wouldn't put much stock in that Gfs solution. It'll catch on to reality eventually, whatever that is. Icon has done well and looks great. Good to see our neighbor to the north look better too. LOL, Not trying to bust your balls but that's some serious cherry picking |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 22:28:51 GMT -6
The fact that it closes off in OK/KS doesn't equate to much when it opens up and shears out by the time it gets here. But that's not necessarily a bad thing as a less amplified system will have weaker WAA. We really need the upper system to dig further S before ejecting E/NE so the wave digging towards the lakes in the N branch gets out ahead and builds the ridge over the top vs. behind it.
Still a formidable winter storm for parts of the region on the GFS...
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 22:31:09 GMT -6
You sure your looking at the right GEM run WSC?
The 00z run is more sheared than the GFS and stays strongly positively tilted with the trough.
GEM also has a nice backside snowstorm here. GFS doesn't
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:32:37 GMT -6
The fact that it closes off in OK/KS doesn't equate to much when it opens up and shears out by the time it gets here. But that's not necessarily a bad thing as a less amplified system will have weaker WAA. We really need the upper system to dig further S before ejecting E/NE so the wave digging towards the lakes in the N branch gets out ahead and builds the ridge over the top vs. behind it. Still a formidable winter storm for parts of the region on the GFS... If it didn't close off before and now it is closing off for a period of time, I would think it might have a chance to remain closed longer? Also, normally you would want the high pressure sitting over the great lakes, not as far west as modeled now. I would think it has a little room to pull north because of the position of the high pressure? |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:35:11 GMT -6
You sure your looking at the right GEM run WSC? The 00z run is more sheared than the GFS and stays strongly positively tilted with the trough. GEM also has a nice backside snowstorm here. GFS doesn't Eh, probably looked at the wrong run in my haste. Been up for 36 hours. I'll look at the ukmet and then get back to the reality of work lol. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 22:47:23 GMT -6
24 hour charts on the 00z ukmet look fine for St. Louis.
Time for bed.
Here is to good news in the morning.
|
|
NAM is shorter term model so it only goes out to 84 hrs. For now we have to look at the Globals (GFS, EURO, GGEM, ICON)
