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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 14, 2019 18:15:36 GMT -6
It's 5 days out.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 18:19:19 GMT -6
EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. Illustrates north trend....we ended up changing to rain in stc for a bit during the course of the storm and that wasnt expected even a day before. What makes this different is the big push of artic air, but this system has the potential to zip along ahead of the cold. I wonder in order to maximize our snow potential, if what we really need is a weaker system that wont warm up the ams ahead of the surface low. I think that will just get you ice. A wrapped up storm where the northern wave punches into the backside would slow the system allowing the deeper cold air to penetrate. I dont really see anyone getting over 6-10 inches (in the Midwest) with the currently modeled setup. There was the 00z ukmet run that would have been huge, but other than that this looks like a high impact event for multiple hazards. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 14, 2019 18:21:46 GMT -6
We definitely want it to come in weaker and slower, dig further south west. This would allow the colder high pressure time to establish itself and push the storm further south.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 18:26:05 GMT -6
We definitely want it to come in weaker and slower, dig further south west. This would allow the colder high pressure time to establish itself and push the storm further south. Weaker system also means less moisture. Lets just see how this plays out. The setup is prime for some wintery weather around here |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 14, 2019 18:31:43 GMT -6
To all the mods I apologize for my actions here.
To the rest........on with winter!
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 18:34:40 GMT -6
I'm afraid this one is trending a bit more sheared out. Just my 2 cents. It looks more inverted trough like to me. With a positive tilt I could see the storm blowing its energy on a frogen band. Not for us. I hope you get this one if we don't. The models get better and better and better. I think in some ways we are chasing fools gold with the "cold air" isn't modeled correctly. Maybe.. but models have been pretty good with thermals this season. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 18:37:36 GMT -6
Still betting it will trend further south? These are becoming some really repetitive roundabout what's going to happen in my backyard questions. Just a fyi |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 18:44:07 GMT -6
Still betting it will trend further south? These are becoming some really repetitive roundabout what's going to happen in my backyard questions. Just a fyi How are you feeling about the long range Friv? I think we are loaded. |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 14, 2019 18:57:10 GMT -6
Although there isn’t enough information to make a real forecast, I do think that mentioning the possibility of ice or even a ‘mix’ would be helpful. People react differently to the I word and might make them pay closer attentionto this system as this evolves. Surprise ice is ugly on many levels. Jmo
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 14, 2019 19:11:29 GMT -6
Amen Jeepers, and there is that ice melt you have to stock up on, dontcha know? Besides the french toast fixings!
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 14, 2019 19:13:03 GMT -6
Both the EPS and GEFS have a mean of 3” in the metro(more north less south) so that’s not a bad forecast as this stage of the game. Icing depends on many variables and is very fickle so hard to say if/when it will happen and how much right now EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. Wasn’t brief. Very light snow broke out before 7am and lasted til 11pm. Ended with 4 inches 50 miles west of you WSC. How was Vegas? |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 14, 2019 19:21:37 GMT -6
EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. Wasn’t brief. Very light snow broke out before 7am and lasted til 11pm. Ended with 4 inches 50 miles west of you WSC. How was Vegas? I'm betting more drinks than blackjacks. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 19:24:21 GMT -6
These are becoming some really repetitive roundabout what's going to happen in my backyard questions. Just a fyi How are you feeling about the long range Friv? I think we are loaded. Really good. Especially for you guys. I think you guys will cash in on some really good NW flow aloft events. Chicagoland can get some serious high ratio over producers |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 14, 2019 19:24:30 GMT -6
EPS in the 6 inch range for me? Just got back from Vegas and there are a couple inches on the ground, so I guess the storm Saturday punched this far north briefly. Wasn’t brief. Very light snow broke out before 7am and lasted til 11pm. Ended with 4 inches 50 miles west of you WSC. How was Vegas? It was awesome. Managed to pay for most of the trip with a good run of blackjack last night into this morning. There was a winter storm warning for the surrounding mountains, so hopefully it follows me home. I'm itching for some snow now that lake isn't too warm to screw me over. |
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Post by TK on Jan 14, 2019 19:27:22 GMT -6
How are you feeling about the long range Friv? I think we are loaded. Really good. Especially for you guys. I think you guys will cash in on some really good NW flow aloft events. Chicagoland can get some serious high ratio over producers Need to get a dislike button for this.... |
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Post by ElburnDave on Jan 14, 2019 19:27:43 GMT -6
Looks like you might see some lake-effect Sunday. Nice to come back with cash in-hand!
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Post by TK on Jan 14, 2019 19:28:59 GMT -6
FRIV - Who is the STL Blues team? They are embarrassing the Caps! They look like a team of Russian Champions! WTH?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 14, 2019 19:29:44 GMT -6
Really good. Especially for you guys. I think you guys will cash in on some really good NW flow aloft events. Chicagoland can get some serious high ratio over producers Need to get a dislike button for this.... How about them blues. I'm afraid to turn the game on. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 19:42:20 GMT -6
Amen Jeepers, and there is that ice melt you have to stock up on, dontcha know? Besides the french toast fixings! Just don't get confused and put the ice melt in the French toast. ;-) |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 14, 2019 19:42:35 GMT -6
IDK, personally, I think this storm’s potential has yet to be realized. However, with the general shock the public is in, a cautious approach is a prudent approach.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 14, 2019 19:46:01 GMT -6
Still betting it will trend further south? I mentioned the possibility that cold air could shove this thing south 2 or 3 days ago. At the risk of getting too cute with premature details, here's my thinking based on latest model trends, albeit early, which no longer indicate a southward trend. I had hoped that the mid-week system would be a setup that argues for a southward placement, much like the Euro had a few days ago. However, that does not appear to be the case. I'm now betting that we will see a shallow arctic airmass that brings in the potential for icing conditions, especially north and west of downtown overnight or early Saturday. But again, we all probably want to see how the mid week system plays out. If the midweek cold front drops further south than currently progged then I can see a southward trend (unlikely, but not off the table imo). I think the current nws forecast makes sense, whatever that is for you. Mine makes sense. I'm now looking at late Friday night, early Saturday morning for the switchover. Thankfully it's the weekend, but for those who have to go out, to me, it's a potentially high impact event. Suspect the nws is thinking for the changeover to occur in the metro, we have to wait until the upper low pass through, or at least the surface low scoots to our south. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 14, 2019 19:46:57 GMT -6
Wasn’t brief. Very light snow broke out before 7am and lasted til 11pm. Ended with 4 inches 50 miles west of you WSC. How was Vegas? It was awesome. Managed to pay for most of the trip with a good run of blackjack last night into this morning. There was a winter storm warning for the surrounding mountains, so hopefully it follows me home. I'm itching for some snow now that lake isn't too warm to screw me over. Been watching it snow off and on since mid afternoon on a streaming webcam north of Los Angeles. Mountain tops have snow but too warm at the lower levels so it's not sticking. |
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Post by TK on Jan 14, 2019 20:02:06 GMT -6
Why do I have an uneasy feeling this is a Chi storm and we are singing in the rain?
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Post by yypc on Jan 14, 2019 20:07:43 GMT -6
Why do I have an uneasy feeling this is a Chi storm and we are singing in the rain? Agree. Or at the very least, a PA to Maine blaster. Chicago may get the best of it in the midwest though which wont be saying much. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2019 20:08:20 GMT -6
Seems the northern and southern jets just miss the coupling... keeps it very progressive.
Personally the way it sets up now... don't see much in the way of icing- better chance for sleet than ZR during the transition.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 14, 2019 20:20:29 GMT -6
Seems the northern and southern jets just miss the coupling... keeps it very progressive. Personally the way it sets up now... don't see much in the way of icing- better chance for sleet than ZR during the transition. There doesn't appear to be much of a push of arctic air ahead of the system...that may mean the difference between ice and rain/sleet/snow. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 14, 2019 20:21:01 GMT -6
This was about the time our last system really started to come to life on the models. Be interesting to see what the model trends tonight are. The euro still has this thing pulling up a ton of gulf moisture. I don't think anyone mentioned the 12z Euro dropped almost a foot of snow in Northern Arkansas. Lots of potential still
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 14, 2019 20:24:11 GMT -6
Here is the final storm briefing. Perhaps a moderator can copy this image to the previous thread for posterity? www.weather.gov/lsx/01_11_2019This was definitely a historic storm.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 14, 2019 20:24:44 GMT -6
This was about the time our last system really started to come to life on the models. Be interesting to see what the model trends tonight are. The euro still has this thing pulling up a ton of gulf moisture. I don't think anyone mentioned the 12z Euro dropped almost a foot of snow in Northern Arkansas. Lots of potential still Euro does wrap up a 500/700 low with the southern stream. If we can get the northern stream to pull back a bit- it will help pull it north. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 14, 2019 20:27:23 GMT -6
I just noticed that Chris's Corner hit a milestone...100,000+ posts.
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