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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 19, 2019 20:17:13 GMT -6
NAM has a batch of snow dropping down the river tomorrow afternoon from clipper energy I did see there was a 20% chance of snow tomorrow
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2019 20:30:51 GMT -6
I suspect tomorrow night's clipper has the potential to let the flakes fly along and east of the MS River.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 19, 2019 20:32:25 GMT -6
NAM has a batch of snow dropping down the river tomorrow afternoon from clipper energy Not going to take much lift to get flakeage- dgz is just above the surface
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Post by perryville on Jan 19, 2019 20:33:54 GMT -6
I-55 is in terrible shape from Ste. Gen and south due to blowing snow. My niece is married to a tow-truck driver and they are having to pull the trucks up the off-ramp. The wind blown-snow looks like something from the Great Plains. If you are on facebook, I highly recommend you like Weather With Bob Clubbs. (I thought you might have already followed him) - I find his facebook page helpful. He has NEVER misrepresented weather forecasts, but he helps bring all the thoughts together. He reports the weather, and he from time to time displays some of the models for that area. This kind of storm is reminiscent of the storms I witnessed in that part of the country....unexpected. Maybe Friv could have sounded the warning bells for that area...lol. It is a bit harder to get various thoughts on the weather other than what comes through the media because the network stations are spread out between Cape, Harrisburg, IL; and Paducah, KY. It is hard to get reports out of that area too. I’ve followed Mr. Clubbs for a few years now. He does a great job of getting information out. In fact, he was way ahead of Paducah NWS in determining that this storm was going to impact our area. Unlike the board, which can be very technical and meteorological (which I love), he keeps it pretty simple. He is VERY good at getting real-time info out and has created a network to relay information.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2019 20:36:20 GMT -6
Guess we will miss the moon tonight with the clouds.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Jan 19, 2019 20:40:57 GMT -6
Tomorrow night
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2019 20:48:14 GMT -6
The weak clipper could obscure the super moon tomorrow night as well, though...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 19, 2019 20:51:53 GMT -6
So... because I am a glutton for punishment...I went back and did a quick review of the old model runs that are still available for today's storm. And despite some perceptions that one model locked in all week and was better than the other...what I found is that most of them stumbled across something that looks similar to what happened a few times earlier in the week..but none of them were consistant enough to build any confidence...or even a solid trend IMO. I have a snap shot saved on my phone of the GFS.FV3 from Monday that is almost a perfect match...but then it went on to flop around like a dead fish the rest of the week. In the end... the 850mb low came in almost 50 to 90 miles farther south than any of the models had shown. That is a lot.
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 19, 2019 20:52:31 GMT -6
Think we’ll hit 100+pages again?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 19, 2019 20:57:34 GMT -6
At 3:15 Weather With Bob Clubbs (their local weather enthusiasts facebook page) - numerous reports of whiteout conditions, thundersnow, etc...but the accumulations seem to be more on the moderate side as of then. I 55 closed in Ste. Genevieve County due to a multicar crash. I-55 is in terrible shape from Ste. Gen and south due to blowing snow. My niece is married to a tow-truck driver and they are having to pull the trucks up the off-ramp. The wind blown-snow looks like something from the Great Plains. It's amazing how we went from rain and slop this morning to the roads in the condition they're currently in. My subdivision street has over a foot drifts in places. Looks like someone tried to plow earlier, but there's a sheet of solid ice under it all. Temps in the teens tonight are going to make it impossible to improve things by tomorrow. The whole town is shut down here...even the most popular restaurant (Mary Jane Burgers and Brew). Made sure I got some good videos of the major blowing snow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2019 20:59:58 GMT -6
We certainly have a lot of active weather remainder of the month - hitting 100 pages could happen if Chris keeps this page active, but there isn't any single real impressive storm; just a strong nw flow and lots of clippers. Some of those clippers however, look pretty stout and have the potential to cause impact. There is interest in the midweek storm by others, but I have to admit, I'm not one of them...yet.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:04:10 GMT -6
All models showing tomorrow's little event spitting out some QPF between a trace to several hundredths of an inch. Pretty strong little system even if a bit strung out and somewhat dry. Still might get a solid dusting to half inch out of it. Wouldn't even rule out an inch in a few spots. However that said it's speed (only lasting a few hours at best in any one spot), lack of deep moisture, and relative unorganized nature of the shortwave limits anything else much beyond that. Does seem likely the flakes will fly again tomorrow though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2019 21:06:56 GMT -6
Looks like those snow squalls/showers are finally arriving
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:07:59 GMT -6
Also watch the Tuesday system. Looks like this south trend thing is gonna continue for quite awhile and it's apparent with the system Tuesday. Was predicted to be in Wisconsin last night, now it's down to north almost central Missouri before darting northeast.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:08:59 GMT -6
Radar upstream looks decent in North Dakota with tomorrow's energy so we have that.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2019 21:17:32 GMT -6
RGEM and NAM have light snow from 12-4pm time frame maybe a 1/2” or so
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 19, 2019 21:18:00 GMT -6
Got to hand it to friv you said in an earlier post about it being a bust up to the Ohio valley to the east coast. I'm apart of a plowing page on FB and they are complaining about not getting anything close to what they said they were forecasted for. Some said they would get up 12 inches and most have gotten nothing at all it's crazy how difficult this storm was to forecast.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2019 21:20:34 GMT -6
So... because I am a glutton for punishment...I went back and did a quick review of the old model runs that are still available for today's storm. And despite some perceptions that one model locked in all week and was better than the other...what I found is that most of them stumbled across something that looks similar to what happened a few times earlier in the week..but none of them were consistant enough to build any confidence...or even a solid trend IMO. I have a snap shot saved on my phone of the GFS.FV3 from Monday that is almost a perfect match...but then it went on to flop around like a dead fish the rest of the week. In the end... the 850mb low came in almost 50 to 90 miles farther south than any of the models had shown. That is a lot. I don't know what you call it, but for lack of a better term, post-mortems are fun. Sometimes these kinds of things happen in close time-proximity, so who knows maybe we have a similar setup after we get past this nw flow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2019 21:20:58 GMT -6
Also watch the Tuesday system. Looks like this south trend thing is gonna continue for quite awhile and it's apparent with the system Tuesday. Was predicted to be in Wisconsin last night, now it's down to north almost central Missouri before darting northeast. Might have to watch for freezing drizzle/rain on the front edge of that Tuesday morning
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 19, 2019 21:23:25 GMT -6
at the risk of sounding crass...south trend?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2019 21:26:58 GMT -6
Snow I thought the same thing, temps at or below freezing with frozen ground and light moisture possible around Rush hour Tuesday morning. Then you have the light rain changing over to light snow for a couple hours Tuesday night with temps crashing behind the front.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:33:38 GMT -6
Polar Vortex says Hello St. Louis on day 5 of the ICON. Not just cold. but stupid cold coming in.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:38:46 GMT -6
GFS spitting out about .03 to .05" QPF for tomorrow event pretty much bisecting the area from northwest to southeast.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:40:21 GMT -6
Kuchera Ratios are about 15:1 to 18:1, so even a few hundredths of an inch should get us around an inch in spots. This is for tomorrow btw.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 19, 2019 21:44:05 GMT -6
GFS spitting out about .03 to .05" QPF for tomorrow event pretty much bisecting the area from northwest to southeast. I’ll be at Hidden Valley tomorrow afternoon so alittle mood snow while skiing would be awesome
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2019 21:44:26 GMT -6
That might be our biggest snow for the week here in the metro. It was supposed to be sunny tomorrow. With the model consistency and high ratios I could see a quick 1/2”- to maybe a 1” in spots tomorrow afternoon
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 19, 2019 21:45:59 GMT -6
Also watch the Tuesday system. Looks like this south trend thing is gonna continue for quite awhile and it's apparent with the system Tuesday. Was predicted to be in Wisconsin last night, now it's down to north almost central Missouri before darting northeast. That storm isn't coming far enough south for Chicago, much less STL...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:46:15 GMT -6
GFS shifting back north with Tuesday's system.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:48:04 GMT -6
Also watch the Tuesday system. Looks like this south trend thing is gonna continue for quite awhile and it's apparent with the system Tuesday. Was predicted to be in Wisconsin last night, now it's down to north almost central Missouri before darting northeast. That storm isn't coming far enough south for Chicago, much less STL... And you may be correct, but as we saw with our last system, fine details can be missed until last minute. Granted a several hundred mile shift even at this range is quite doubtful.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 19, 2019 21:48:28 GMT -6
If you look at radar you can see a band of snow coming into st.peters off of the river it's slightly enhanced right off the.Mississippi. is it possible to have a small band of river effect I do have a light snow falling g
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