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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:50:06 GMT -6
If you look at radar you can see a band of snow coming into st.peters off of the river it's slightly enhanced right off the.Mississippi. is it possible to have a small band of river effect I do have a light snow falling g Getting snow to fall now with left over lift is a good sign for tomorrow as mentioned earlier with the DGZ layer being quite close to the surface.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 19, 2019 21:50:48 GMT -6
We have steady flurries here in Wentzville
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 21:56:36 GMT -6
Looks like the 'heaviest' is falling right through the metro east according to the terminal radar. A check out the window and I've got some fluff flakes flying at a relatively decent clip.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 19, 2019 21:58:53 GMT -6
If you look at radar you can see a band of snow coming into st.peters off of the river it's slightly enhanced right off the.Mississippi. is it possible to have a small band of river effect I do have a light snow falling g It has been noted several times before with the wind running parallel with Mississippi and Illinois rivers then the orographic lift caused by the rising bluffs/land mass downwind of the rivers. Pretty cool stuff.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 19, 2019 22:04:58 GMT -6
Gem and almost the icon are still trying to make secondary development happen Wednesday. Though that is quite unlikely at this point.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 22:14:02 GMT -6
3Z RAP coming in quite potent with tomorrow's mini event. Actually intensifies it over the bi-state. Looks like an inch easy possibly 1.5.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 22:22:00 GMT -6
FV3-GFS on board as well. I tell you does the sun ever shine in St. Louis anymore? My sunglasses are getting a bit dusty.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 19, 2019 22:28:44 GMT -6
3Z HRRR looks good as well especially southwest of the metro.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2019 22:55:41 GMT -6
3Z HRRR looks good as well especially southwest of the metro. RPM dry as a bone... but it also has a strange line... vanishes the shield of moisture between 4-6am somewhere in NW'rn Iowa.
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Post by lizard7151971 on Jan 20, 2019 6:29:01 GMT -6
So... because I am a glutton for punishment...I went back and did a quick review of the old model runs that are still available for today's storm. And despite some perceptions that one model locked in all week and was better than the other...what I found is that most of them stumbled across something that looks similar to what happened a few times earlier in the week..but none of them were consistant enough to build any confidence...or even a solid trend IMO. I have a snap shot saved on my phone of the GFS.FV3 from Monday that is almost a perfect match...but then it went on to flop around like a dead fish the rest of the week. In the end... the 850mb low came in almost 50 to 90 miles farther south than any of the models had shown. That is a lot. It's good to go back and study them. Tells you which one had the better run. But one thing I remembered was at the beginning, when the system first showed, you or someone said a shift south of 50 miles would determine if we would get snow or not. It was like there was doubt from the beginning.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2019 7:18:23 GMT -6
Finally get to dust off those shades even if it's only for a few hours for what looks like a mostly sunny morning before the clouds roll back in.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 20, 2019 7:28:11 GMT -6
As each day goes by I get closer and closer to this being my last year doing snow removal as a service provided by my company. The latest is I had a church call last night saying they need salt this morning so they can have service this morning (they denied it yesterday when I was out already). So I load a scoop of salt this morning into the hopper at 4am to go do this and by the time I get there the salt is completely frozen in the hopper and to top it off the lot didn’t need anything as it all froze dry overnight. Now I get to work about 2-3 hours chipping this out of the hopper since I don’t have a heated shop I can back it into to thaw it out. Money is pretty good doing this work but it’s beginning to not be worth the aggravation and stress of it all anymore after 25 years of putting up with it.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2019 7:38:57 GMT -6
Belleville is there still a good chance of light snow this afternoon?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2019 7:55:14 GMT -6
Good morning all.. Im going to carry some light snow and flurries this afternoon...especially in Missouri...Im throwing out a token dusting to 1"
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2019 7:59:17 GMT -6
Balmy 8* this morning.
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Post by bororug on Jan 20, 2019 8:03:45 GMT -6
Setting at a crisp 11 this morning.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2019 8:14:08 GMT -6
We are 9 in Wentzville, it’s mostly cloudy, I’m not sure we will see much sun, that little piece of energy is dropping down out of Iowa.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 20, 2019 8:27:35 GMT -6
Sun in chesterfield...we hit 9 here this morning...much colder than models.. which had us in the teens last time I looked at mos.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 20, 2019 8:29:20 GMT -6
I am holding at 7. Bet we stay below 15 today
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 20, 2019 8:42:40 GMT -6
I can see lots of school closings Friday with WCs getting into the -20s in areas.
Won’t see a huge amount of snow or precip but this will be a very interesting winter weather week.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 20, 2019 8:50:32 GMT -6
Do you think we’ll see the eclipse tonight or too cloudy?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 20, 2019 9:11:14 GMT -6
Radar upstream starting to perk up after waning for it bit. Looks like this shortwave energy will be strengthening as it pushes through. Ratios also look quite high between 18:1 to 20:1 as this passes through. RGEM showing some spots nearing 2" but I still think it's a bit too far southwest with the greatest QPF. 2 distinct bands are visible on radar. Really just a matter of whether they merge or remain separate. If they merge, almost everyone cashes out on this one with .5 to 1.5" with a few spots up to 2 if intensity can be maintained. If it remains separate there will be a gap but looking at the radar and echo movement that gap won't be through the metro but just to the south of it with the second band passing through central Missouri from Kirksville, MO to between Farmington and Centerville, MO. with the northern wave passing from Hannibal, MO to Mt. Vernon, IL with the metro on the southern half of the northern band.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 20, 2019 9:15:50 GMT -6
I can see lots of school closings Friday with WCs getting into the -20s in areas. Won’t see a huge amount of snow or precip but this will be a very interesting winter weather week. I forget what our district policy is, but I feel like it has to be more in the -30 to -35 range.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 20, 2019 9:29:46 GMT -6
I can see lots of school closings Friday with WCs getting into the -20s in areas. Won’t see a huge amount of snow or precip but this will be a very interesting winter weather week. I forget what our district policy is, but I feel like it has to be more in the -30 to -35 range. For most districts it's -30, and even then, there had better be some snow on the ground.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 20, 2019 9:42:27 GMT -6
Looks like today's snowband should set up pretty much along or just W of the river and drop a heavy dusting to an inch across much of the area this afternoon.
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Post by sullivandave on Jan 20, 2019 9:42:50 GMT -6
A balmy 15 in stanton... pool open yet???
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Post by dschreib on Jan 20, 2019 9:46:13 GMT -6
Thought the little bit of snow cover might help drop our temps more overnight, but 14.0* was my low. Had issues with the data logger on the Davis yesterday, so I didn't record anything from about 8:30a-10:30p. I know we maintained 20-25mph wind for the average just from looking at the station as it was snowing, but I would have liked to see some of the gusts. Even after it started recording, we kept at 15-20 with gusts around 30-35 until midnight.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 20, 2019 9:50:20 GMT -6
Do you think we’ll see the eclipse tonight or too cloudy? The NWS hourly forecast has me about 70% sky cover during the peak. I really hope it clears out more than that.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 20, 2019 10:03:23 GMT -6
Looking at the radar it looks like the clipper is coming right down the river... a county or 2 on each side of the rivet should see some snow
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 20, 2019 10:08:26 GMT -6
The models show the good band over Eastern Iowa essentially vanishing the next couple of hours and reforming quite a bit weaker SW of this bands trajectory
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