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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 15, 2019 6:01:25 GMT -6
Most 06z models have a nice thumping of snow for the I-70 and a thru metro and north this weekend. Here we go! 😁
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 6:02:23 GMT -6
Looks like I need a bit of a southern shift and/or expansion of the snow field. Not a good place to be at this stage. You guys should get it again though.
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mmkjmg
Weather Weenie
Posts: 21 
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Post by mmkjmg on Jan 15, 2019 6:09:56 GMT -6
Euro has temps staying in the single numbers on Sunday..well below 0 Sunday night. Would be likely if we get the snow it shows,. Going to be a frigid game in KC. Yikes. Maybe the new standard for "The Ice Bowl"? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2019 6:35:38 GMT -6
Looks like I need a bit of a southern shift and/or expansion of the snow field. Not a good place to be at this stage. You guys should get it again though. FV3 would argue otherwise. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 6:49:51 GMT -6
Looks like I need a bit of a southern shift and/or expansion of the snow field. Not a good place to be at this stage. You guys should get it again though. FV3 would argue otherwise. 6z looks a little north to me. I could see this one having some intense bands that dump on some folks, and leave others very frustrated. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 15, 2019 6:54:22 GMT -6
Several us have pointed it out repeatedly, but the tendency is for shortwaves to wrap up and close off to at least 500mb this year. Rather than remain progressive/sheared with vorticity strung out all over the country. So these types of solutions in the modeling data is not surprising at all.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 6:59:06 GMT -6
It seems like overnight models have nudged the upper level system a bit further south and keeps the mid-level low closed off longer which is good. But interestingly the SLP/850 track has come a bit further north...possibly because of stronger WAA on the front end. The SLP tracks across the bootheel which is getting too close for comfort.
If we can get the mid-level shortwave to dig into the Red River Valley we should be good at least for backside snowfall. And models...particularly the EURO...show near to full blown blizzard conditions Saturday afternoon/evening.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 7:06:04 GMT -6
Be care pretty steady freezing drizzle from Wentzville to earth city temps upper 20’s
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 7:18:56 GMT -6
Have the earlier problems with the GFS been taken care of?
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 15, 2019 7:23:47 GMT -6
Probably worth pointing out that the UKMET was further south. Also has a strong pressure gradient across the state.   |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 7:27:46 GMT -6
It always seems like afd authors read our posts and answer whatever questions or topics of conversation we had. Lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 7:31:01 GMT -6
Looks like we had a bit of FRDZ overnight...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 15, 2019 7:31:57 GMT -6
It always seems like afd authors read our posts and answer whatever questions or topics of conversation we had. Lol Well some of them know about our existence, so... |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 7:32:29 GMT -6
I know Sunday night is near zero,. But looking at Chris's long range it looks like we'll be warming back close to seasonal by Tuesday. Beyond that are we going to keep getting repeated hits like Sunday or is it a one off?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 7:35:31 GMT -6
I know Sunday night is near zero,. But looking at Chris's long range it looks like we'll be warming back close to seasonal by Tuesday. Beyond that are we going to keep getting repeated hits like Sunday or is it a one off? Most models show a revolving door of intense cold shots as the PV spins around in east central Canada. Not sure if it ever locks in but extreme cold for a couple days at a time looks like the way forward for a while. |
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Post by birddog on Jan 15, 2019 7:38:08 GMT -6
Just had a couple rounds of very fine salt shaker snow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 7:39:24 GMT -6
Gfs refreshes the cold air and in fact the 06 gfs seems to have light snow showers midweek.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 7:39:26 GMT -6
Have the earlier problems with the GFS been taken care of? The reason I ask is the GFS really had trouble handling the last system until the later runs closer to the arrival the storm. If it's still having the same data problems I don't know why we would expect it to be reliable at this point |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 7:41:41 GMT -6
I know Sunday night is near zero,. But looking at Chris's long range it looks like we'll be warming back close to seasonal by Tuesday. Beyond that are we going to keep getting repeated hits like Sunday or is it a one off? Most models show a revolving door of intense cold shots as the PV spins around in east central Canada. Not sure if it ever locks in but extreme cold for a couple days at a time looks like the way forward for a while. That is preferable to the PV slamming into the upper midwest and suppressing everything. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 7:48:45 GMT -6
Pleasantly surprised that with the mist, my car was not frozen over. Just liquid imby.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 15, 2019 7:49:00 GMT -6
FV3 would argue otherwise. 6z looks a little north to me. I could see this one having some intense bands that dump on some folks, and leave others very frustrated. I swear... the version I looked at an hour ago or so showed a lot more...looking at pivotal weather. Ahhh... I see what happened...it switched back to the 00z for some reason while I was paging through different models. So sorry for the confusion  |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 15, 2019 7:59:42 GMT -6
Have the earlier problems with the GFS been taken care of? The reason I ask is the GFS really had trouble handling the last system until the later runs closer to the arrival the storm. If it's still having the same data problems I don't know why we would expect it to be reliable at this point American models are not being maintained due to the shutdown. Their accuracy is degraded and will continue to degrade until noaa has the staffing to do more than just run them. A wash post article covered this pretty well. I just am too lazy to find it. Capitol weather blog. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 8:00:03 GMT -6
LOL, Not trying to bust your balls but that's some serious cherry picking If I'm being completely honest with you and myself I realized that as I was typing it but went ahead and posted anyway lol. Been a long day. It's all good. I get squimish thinking about some of my historically bias posts. That wasnt that bad.. just caught my eye. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 8:01:07 GMT -6
The reason I ask is the GFS really had trouble handling the last system until the later runs closer to the arrival the storm. If it's still having the same data problems I don't know why we would expect it to be reliable at this point American models are not being maintained due to the shutdown. Their accuracy is degraded and will continue to degrade until noaa has the staffing to do more than just run them. A wash post article covered this pretty well. I just am too lazy to find it. Capitol weather blog. Was that ever confirmed? That article was pretty fast and loose with that claim. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 15, 2019 8:02:32 GMT -6
The reason I ask is the GFS really had trouble handling the last system until the later runs closer to the arrival the storm. If it's still having the same data problems I don't know why we would expect it to be reliable at this point American models are not being maintained due to the shutdown. Their accuracy is degraded and will continue to degrade until noaa has the staffing to do more than just run them. A wash post article covered this pretty well. I just am too lazy to find it. Capitol weather blog. Sooo, I guess toss them til later. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 8:03:05 GMT -6
Have the earlier problems with the GFS been taken care of? The reason I ask is the GFS really had trouble handling the last system until the later runs closer to the arrival the storm. If it's still having the same data problems I don't know why we would expect it to be reliable at this point That probably had to do with the GFS biases more than a data issue |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 8:09:47 GMT -6
It always seems like afd authors read our posts and answer whatever questions or topics of conversation we had. Lol Well some of them know about our existence, so... They all know of this and likely all read this place. Admittedely or not. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 8:11:58 GMT -6
I remember an ice/sleet storm in 1994/95 that finished with 3-6" of snow after ice all day and bursts of snow.
It was cold enough to ice skate on a local creek.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 15, 2019 8:16:30 GMT -6
I ran across this story on Ryan Maue's site wrt the GFS and government shutdown. rebuttal makes sense |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 15, 2019 8:29:40 GMT -6
Any further comments regarding zr/sleet with regards to this weekend's system?
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