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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 15, 2019 8:39:46 GMT -6
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 15, 2019 8:40:38 GMT -6
Appears our filter will not create a link.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 15, 2019 8:41:56 GMT -6
That's crazy the weekend storm is sitting over the Bering Sea. I'm currently sitting under it duck hunting on St. Paul Island. It's been brutal. Peak was yesterday afternoon right after the center of circulation moved through. Had gusts over 60. Finally looks like it's going to be calmer today. what do you do up there? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 8:53:21 GMT -6
The 12z NAM look pretty good, it is showing a slightly weaker storm moving into the Texas panhandle, hour 84 with more northern stream influence. Temps are actually at or below freezing from I70 north . It looks like it would be trending in the southern route of guidance if it went beyond 84 hours
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hage
Weather Weenie
Troy, IL
Posts: 72 
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Post by hage on Jan 15, 2019 8:59:27 GMT -6
That's crazy the weekend storm is sitting over the Bering Sea. I'm currently sitting under it duck hunting on St. Paul Island. It's been brutal. Peak was yesterday afternoon right after the center of circulation moved through. Had gusts over 60. Finally looks like it's going to be calmer today. what do you do up there? King Eider and Harlequin are the main ones. Saw a few Spectated Eiders, Emperor Geese, and Scoters too. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 9:00:38 GMT -6
Well some of them know about our existence, so... They all know of this and likely all read this place. Admittedely or not. Agreed! I’ve noticed the same thing but we all should be proud to know they do peak in. Lots of valuable knowledge on here that in my opinion does not ever compare close to any other place for so much critical information. I really wish fish would have popped in for the last storm lol. Here’s to a good 12z suite folks! 🍻 |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jan 15, 2019 9:07:08 GMT -6
King Eider and Harlequin are the main ones. Saw a few Spectated Eiders, Emperor Geese, and Scoters too. I was in dutch last November looked like a duck hunters dream! then i felt a sustained 50+ mph wind and quickly thought of the challenges of hunting flying critters up there lol |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 9:18:41 GMT -6
I have real concerns about this thing going further north than modeled (wonder why that is?). We have seen that trend and I would expect it to continue, especially if we see the trend for a stronger storm.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 15, 2019 9:20:55 GMT -6
The 12z NAM look pretty good, it is showing a slightly weaker storm moving into the Texas panhandle, hour 84 with more northern stream influence. Temps are actually at or below freezing from I70 north . It looks like it would be trending in the southern route of guidance if it went beyond 84 hours I submit that a slightly weaker system moving into the texas panhandle wld allow cold air to remain in place ahead of the system and not erode it so readily.it therefore might be trending to a southern route. Now i havent seen any models but as the system continues its east southeast track, a favorable outcome would be that it hits a ridge of high pressure and closes off to our south. Thats not unreasonable for this season. Will be interesting to see how the next euro run handles this. Gfs only a guideline but the 06 gfs looked pretty wintry around here. |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 9:27:28 GMT -6
Had to cancel an Open House last weekend to be postponed for this weekend. I was thinking we could squeeze it in Saturday morning but that's looking like a less likely option as well. Snow doesn't slow everyone down but significant ice will bring the city to a screeching halt. I'm hoping the onset occurs later than currently predicted but that might be wishful thinking.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 9:33:44 GMT -6
12z Icon is trying to go Kaboom.
Close to some benchmark tracks and trying to intensify at the right time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 9:36:30 GMT -6
I have real concerns about this thing going further north than modeled (wonder why that is?). We have seen that trend and I would expect it to continue, especially if we see the trend for a stronger storm. The stronger solution is also slower to eject which gives the cold air more time to advance south and keep the system from pulling north. Ya the front end might be warmer but the backside could be really fun(see euro) |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 15, 2019 10:00:30 GMT -6
Perfect memphis low that leads to classic rain to blizzard conditions on GFS.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 10:03:09 GMT -6
GFS has it stronger with more snow for the I-70 corridor. I need to do myself a favor and kiss this one goodbye. Dry slot city for southern half of the viewing area with some wind driven snow showers. There's my call.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 10:05:24 GMT -6
Perfect memphis low that leads to classic rain to blizzard conditions on GFS. It’s showing some ice in there to Ya STG, it’s looking pretty unlikely the southerners get much from this one unfortunately |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 15, 2019 10:09:12 GMT -6
Gfs looks great from I 70 north , rain to snow, there will probably be a period of sleet in between the transition zone . I hope it doesn’t rain to much and ruin our snow pack . It’s going to be nasty though , with all the snow pack/piles around, then cold rain , then possibly some sleet followed by several inches of snow. Then you add high winds and crashing temps with lows in the single digits Saturday night. Not a fun time to be out on the roads.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 10:09:24 GMT -6
Perfect memphis low that leads to classic rain to blizzard conditions on GFS. It’s showing some ice in there to Ya STG, it’s looking pretty unlikely the southerners get much from this one unfortunately It would need to really dig deeper and throw a more solid shield of snow back into the cold air. Otherwise like I mentioned yesterday we are looking at a fairly narrow band with a lot of folks in dry slot city. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 15, 2019 10:12:21 GMT -6
Models are always slow with Artic air..... let’s see if this is the trend
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 15, 2019 10:18:36 GMT -6
I swear if I hear one more person complain about their precious little snowpack getting rained on I might lose it. End rant  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 10:18:39 GMT -6
Somebody post the GFS tropical tidbits snow accumulation map
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 15, 2019 10:22:42 GMT -6
Gfs looks great from I 70 north , rain to snow, there will probably be a period of sleet in between the transition zone . I hope it doesn’t rain to much and ruin our snow pack . It’s going to be nasty though , with all the snow pack/piles around, then cold rain , then possibly some sleet followed by several inches of snow. Then you add high winds and crashing temps with lows in the single digits Saturday night. Not a fun time to be out on the roads. What it might do is put an icy crust on top of the current snow. The new snow would blow around on top of the crust with little friction to impede it. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 10:28:18 GMT -6
Somebody post the GFS tropical tidbits snow accumulation map This one? It includes sleet and is only using 10:1 ratios so not sure how accurate that is
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104
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Post by iceman on Jan 15, 2019 10:31:38 GMT -6
Question, seeing the northern trend being brought up very often. Will this extremely cold air not help keep this storm down? Current temp forecast of 5° For the low has me wondering. Thats a strong front pushing through.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 10:38:52 GMT -6
Heres a snow map that uses the Kuchera method. It really isnt all that different from the tropical tidbits one  |
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Post by yypc on Jan 15, 2019 10:41:47 GMT -6
Question, seeing the northern trend being brought up very often. Will this extremely cold air not help keep this storm down? Current temp forecast of 5° For the low has me wondering. Thats a strong front pushing through. Stronger storms shift to the northwest as you get closer to the event. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 15, 2019 10:51:50 GMT -6
Has the energy with this storm been sampled at all?
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 15, 2019 10:52:45 GMT -6
Any chance the models are too slow with the arrival of the cold air on Friday?
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 15, 2019 10:58:03 GMT -6
May I ask a polite question? How far south is it looking for the dry slotted southerners? I was inquiring nice! Thanks!
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Post by dschreib on Jan 15, 2019 11:02:35 GMT -6
Somebody post the GFS tropical tidbits snow accumulation map This one? It includes sleet and is only using 10:1 ratios so not sure how accurate that is
I don't like that one. Try again. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 15, 2019 11:10:02 GMT -6
Has the energy with this storm been sampled at all?
Still out over the Pacific north of Hawaii and south of the Aleutian chain. Certainly no vital RAOB sampling. Lots of satellite sampling. Maybe some bouys/ships in the vicinity for surface obs. Maybe, or maybe not, some aircraft obs at cruise altitude in the vicinity.
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